This is just a response to Without Worries LTC analysis where I can post pictures because I was unable to on his post. I really like WW he is a fantastic trader and analyst and chartist. I just disagree with his current position on LTC. I believe there is more to LTC than just TA. Fundamental analysis is important here and Ill explain below.
Thank you for your chart and analysis. Possible it breaks down that hard but definitely not probable especially with the SEC suing everyone and their brother for securities sales etc. Litecoin is one of only 4 cryptos allowed in USA for institutional and accredited investors because of its regulatory clarity. I follow the big money and big money has access to it along with 3 others. Baakt added it last month, might not seem like a big deal but its just getting ready for the inflows of capital from the big players as they have been for a few years now, quietly in the background while no one is looking waiting to see what regulations come out. Also EDX Markets is an institutional cryptocurrency exchange backed by Citadel Securities, Fidelity Digital Assets, Charles Schwab Corporation, Virtu Financial and Sequoia among others. The exchange offers trading in Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash. Litecoin hasn't had any real developments in a little while but its not dead by any means. It serves its purpose, the updates and upgrades happened over the last ten years. Its not a new crypto with a bunch of flaws and exploits, those kinks were ironed out a long time ago. The saying goes dont fix something if its not broken. Bitcoin hasn't had an update or upgrade in a long time either does that mean its dead? No it doesn not, so the argument of its dead because no developments is a moot point. Fundamentals matter in this case because of how young this crypto market is compared to the rest of the traditional markets. Its just starting to get wrangled in now, so the wild wild west days are over. Pretty soon the USA will shut down all exchanges in the USA except for 2 and the rest of the world will follow. One for the average person and one or two for institutions and accredited investors. Institutions and accredited investors will not touch this with a ten foot pole until there is clear regulation. Dont believe me? Look at what they did to Binance and CZ, in a totally different country. The USA has very long tentacles and what it does the rest of the world follows voluntarily or forcefully. CZ thought he was an untouchable billionaire but all it took was a week and he caved, without a fight and gave up billions in fines and stepped down because its a losing battle against the USA. Right now like I mentioned above SEC and CFTC have seen LTC and 3 others as a non security out of a million cryptos out there, that matters more than anything in my opinion. Im not saying that its impossible for Litecoin to go to zero or dump as hard as you say but that would mean that BTC also dumps down to 10k and the traditional markets dump as well. It would be a global dump not just Litecoin. Im not betting on that right now but anything surely is possible.
Also as a response to your trendline, please see below. A trendline has lots of wiggle room and many different ways to draw it.
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I also wanted to share a comparison to the DOGE/BTC chart. Dont forget Doge is merge mined with Litecoin, and Doge has an infinite supply, creating 12 million new Doge everyday forever so it can remain relevant and miner will want to mine it.
As you can see the Doge/BTC chart is very similar to the LTC/BTC chart. Breaking below the trendline is not uncommon and whenever it does it would rally hard to the top until its final push through resistance trendline and went on a mega parabloic straight up no pull back rally. I believe this is the same thing that will happen once Litecoin "catches fire" which I believe will be Spring 2024.
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This is the LTC/BTC chart.
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Here is a more complete picture of the LTC/BTC chart. This one shows that LTC has broken out of the falling wedge/channel and is now retesting the top side of the wedge. This is important becasue it is now right at its previous lows from June of 2022. Last months candle closed above the previous low so we are seeing higher lows. This months candle is still new and has a ways to go but I think that LTC is about to fly.
No one seems to even know about Mimblewimble. Adds fungibility and privacy. LTC is preparing for a world where we may really need it. I hold for that reason alone. And no satoshi bag.
without_worries
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Thanks for feedback. You have clearly kept up to date with the interested stakeholders and fundamentals.
As an accredited investor myself, when it comes to investment, crypto to very far down the list. Very far. The entire space is a Ponzi filled with fraud and rug-pulls. I’m very cautious about too much exposure unless the probabilities are on my side. Fundamentals will only take you so far. Chart analysis will tell you the truth, and right now just like with others the Litecoin-BTC chart is foreshadowing events to come. But I understand why it is news no-one wants to hear, I totally get it.
Extending on accredited investors, some of the most exciting OTC opportunities today belong with start ups in India and a number of key areas in Africa. In particular with sectors belonging to energy transition. Health is next, oh my goodness the health technology leap we made during the rush to find a cure in the Covid pandemic. It is the most exciting news of recent times and yet the most unobserved.
“Pretty soon the USA will shut down all exchanges in the USA except for 2 and the rest of the world will follow.”
Crypto exchanges? Then who cares? Why is this important to internet money? Internet money was created to be independent of centralised exchanges. There is an irony when folks fear for their loss.
“CZ thought he was an untouchable billionaire but all it took was a week and he caved, without a fight and gave up billions in fines and stepped down because its a losing battle against the USA.”
He paid a parking fine to stop his car being towed to the lockup. He succeeded. End of story. Was one of the biggest non-stories this year.
“Litecoin to go to zero or dump as hard as you say but that would mean that BTC also dumps down to 10k”
Well Litecoin has already gone to zero figuratively speaking and Bitcoin has only gone up. Litecoin is now at 2017 prices and Bitcoin… Technically speaking this is one of the reasons why the $30 idea was published, because of a break of market structure on the LTC-BTC pair.
3-week LTC-BTC
Held off as long as I could, the 3-week candle printed below market structure, it will be the death knell for Litecoin. As it has been for others.
Have made the same observations on others in the past. When broken market structure prints on the BTC pair of an alt-token on the higher time frames.. it is a warning not to have exposure. Some examples below, read the comments.. all emotions.
Eth to 2k when at 4.5k. Read the comments, similar to your own. “Insinuation are coming…”
AAVE when at $300
I'm just a messenger with nothing to lose but you'll be surprised how few are prepared to read and accept the content.
Stay safe. Ww
Bitgolder
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@without_worries, I appreciate your response and respect your opinion. I will come back when I have time to give you a more expansive response, I just dont have the time at the moment but in a couple days I will. Take care WW
Bitgolder
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@without_worries, Good morning. So as far as the LTC/BTC pair, I see a different story there. It doesn't take much for LTC to break the barrier and rocket to the top of the LTC/BTC chart. Right now LTC doesn't have very much attention but once the masses realize there is only a handful of coins that are allowed and accredited investors want, or the SEC and CFTC approve then the money will literally flood into these cryptocurrencies and bleed out of the rest. The rest of these useless projects people are bag holding with 100 new meme coins coming out everyday the hype will die fast once there is no where to trade them in the USA and then the rest of the west follows. You can say the USA is only one country, yes that is true; however USA and the west have the deepest pockets so who cares if Bulgaria or Lithuania for example say you can trade them in their country. Their entire GDP is Bill Gates and his buddies on a weekend. The USA will likely regulate this entire space worldwide, their tentacles are long and are not scared to overreach.
A chart can only go so far. I mean looking at the DOGE/BTC chart no one in their right mind would have thought that DOGE would pump that hard and that fast before it did and anyone who said they called it I call bullshlt on them. It only takes one or two bits of major news to propel these coins. DOGE unfortunately was just was Elon pumping it, and LTC will be the big money pumping it because of CFTC and SEC clarity. Yes I am an investor in Litecoin but that is because of its fundamentals, and potential to take over the payments space in the real world. More people pay with LTC than any other crypto already because of its speed, transactions fees, blockchain security, and its accepted and traded everywhere Bitcoin is which is something 99% of the cryptos out there cant say.
I agree with your statement on India and where to possibly invest in stocks and so on , I don't disagree there. This is just about the crypto space at the moment.
Internet money and decentralization is cool and all, but does anyone really believe that humans on this planet will ever have complete financial freedom, anonymity, and be their own bank? I dont think so, at least not in my lifetime. Everything eventually falls into the hands of the government, its just the way it is. Now thats not the end all, there is still ways to make money off it. Thats what Im saying is let make money off it. If the SEC and CFTC say ok we cant beat them so lets join them and regulate this space then you follow where they tell big money to go. Litecoin among a few others are approved. Thats the biggest fundamentals of all. Also when they talk about any crypto on mainstream TV you always see the famous 3, BTC ETH LTC. Now why is it that LTC is up on mainstream news channels when its all the way down on the CMC like position 20 and they arent talking about XRP, or BNB or whatever else? Its because that is what will survive in the end.
Bitgolder
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@Bitgolder, (continution from last message) Thats why those are on mainstream television, its because those are the "chosen" ones and the ones they want big money to play with. It wont be long till all these crap shute coins die and fall off with no where to sell them or no where to buy them. Thats what Im betting on. Its clear to me that this will happen and the USA and Western world billionaires and trillionaires will dominate the entire crpyto market. I dont care if its regulated, fine with me. Im here to make money, and regulation is needed so these little kids buying crapcoin 1 or crapcoin 2 dont lose their shirts. If they just lost their shirts and didnt bitch then it would be ok but most bitch and file lawsuit after lawsuit when they lose money. None take accountablitiy for their actions, its always someone elses fault. Once these children are flushed out and make way for the adults, this space will thrive.
Anyways, anything can happen but its my belief that what I am saying for Litecoin and the other SEC approved cryptos will come true. They arent very shiny at the moment like PEPE or POOPEY or whatever else but those others are being bought by children and people that have no clue. Im not follwing the herd of kids, Im in the pack of wolves with the deep pockets.
Happy holidays my friend, I hope they are great and 2024 is amazing.
I am a holder of both LTC and LTCN. Lately, I have noticed LTCN going up massively, whereas LTC has been stagnant. Sometimes, Grayscale products could be an early indication of what is to come in the market. GBTC has sometimes led the market before cryptos react.
Additionally, there is too much money out there and I don't think people will think it's worth it to dump assets for a loss when LTC is already at range and pattern lows. People love to talk about higher interest rates, yet we will barely ever hear them talk about money supply injections from the Infrastructure bill, wars, etc.
Bitgolder
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@ToonaFish, I think that once Litecoin starts running it just goes straight up like it usually does. Litecoin fundamentals will propel Litecoin to new highs no one could ever imagine. I mean Litecoin is going to run so high in price that people wont be able to believe it. I think the peg will be .25 of what bitcoin is in the future. Itll be Bitcoin and Litecoin and then the rest.