VictorCobra

Litecoin To All-Time High (Part 2)

Long
COINBASE:LTCUSD   Litecoin / U.S. Dollar
I have to make this quick, since I am already behind on coursework and it's not even halfway through the semester. This is a follow-up to my never-ending, strange attachment to Litecoin. Earlier this year, I projected all-time-high prices for LTC, but it was only able to touch the $420 price briefly before dropping like a rock. Here's that analysis:
But I like Litecoin for some reason. Maybe because it's faster and cheaper than Bitcoin , has more adoption than most, and no major regulatory concerns. It's scarce, and fungibility is coming to the network soon, which is a pretty big deal. A lot of people don't realize that crypto is VERY traceable. In fact, you can look up to see how much money any address owns. Privacy is very important if crypto is to be used (at all) like a currency. You wouldn't want someone on the receiving end of a Venmo transaction to know how much money you have in the bank, would you?

In addition to privacy, Litecoin is also (beginning) an NFT platform called Omnilite. Not that NFT's are really a Litecoin thing, but it's interesting nonetheless.

That's enough for fundamentals. This thing has been underperforming quite terribly, and is near all-time lows against Bitcoin and Ethereum . Every time I make an attempt to call a reversal on either pair, it just keeps lagging and heading lower. Nevertheless, trading volume and on-chain volume are quite healthy. And hey, at least it reached its previous all-time high this year. The retrace was very ugly, and it's probably still battered from the China mining shutdown and proof-of-work energy FUD. Yes, there are coins which are more environmentally friendly. Litecoin is the only legacy proof-of-work cryptocurrency I hold (for better or for worse).

I could be doing far worse with Litecoin. I first bought at $32 in the beginning of 2019, sold a bunch for Ethereum near 0.5 (LTC/ETH) during the 2019 halving rally, and have only begun re-accumulating this year, as I see current ratios to be more favorable for buying. My average purchase price this year is around $130.

The Plan

I think once LTC breaks this local downtrend (shown on the chart) the selling pressure will ease a bit. If Bitcoin breaks all-time-high , I'm looking to scale out of Litecoin in the red box. I don't have a specific number in mind, but if it starts getting up there I'm booking some profit. In that instance, I will also be booking profit from other crypto positions, as Litecoin tends to pump late in the cycle.

In the short term, I'd also like to see LTC break and hold above the 200 day MA (teal) and produce a golden cross. After its last daily golden cross, LTC rallied almost 1000%.
This is not financial advice! This is meant as my own personal record, and for speculation/entertainment.

-Victor Cobra

Comment: Oops, here's the chart showing the moving averages. I removed them from the above snapshot by mistake.
Comment: Such weak price action - couldn't even hold above the 50 day MA, but there's some support on the 4H. Until LTC gets above the 200 day MA and the downtrend, it seems sell pressure will be strong. I'd like to see strong buyers show up here, maintaining the 4H golden cross.
Comment:
Comment: Man, this downtrend.
Comment:
Comment: Weekly Ultimate Oscillator (red) for LTC/BTC is at its lowest point since 2015.