The previous halving in August 2015, led to a nearly 600 day period of ranging price action. Although LTC has outperformed most cryptocurrencies and assets since the beginning of the year, a more bearish picture may be more likely in the following months.
Open interest on Bitfinex for the LTC/USD pair is 77% long with longs rising slightly over the past few weeks and shorts slightly down over the same time period (top panel, chart below). A significant price movement downwards will result in an exaggerated move further, as the long positions will continue to unwind. This is known as a “long squeeze.” On March 30th and 31st, shorts held a greater percentage than longs and a short squeeze occurred shortly thereafter, sending price much higher very quickly.
Fundamentals show that on-chain activity has continued to decrease after the block reward halving earlier this month. Both NVT and MVRV show no warning signs of immediate bearish continuation, but NVT remains well-above historic highs, again suggesting decreased on-chain utility compared to previous periods. Hash rate has definitively reached a plateau and is now experiencing a 30%+ reduction as the mining profitability sits at all-time lows.
Developer activity on the main GitHub repo has been nearly non-existent over the past few months, despite a recent Litecoin Core upgrade in June. Charlie Lee recently addressed this growing concern, explaining that LTC has a limited dev team who mostly merges BTC upgrades onto LTC. Further, Adrian Gallagher (thrasher), one of the core developers, works on a personal branch and merges finalized changes with the master branch at a later date, hence the lack of activity on the main LTC repo.
Open interest on Bitfinex for the LTC/USD pair is 77% long with longs rising slightly over the past few weeks and shorts slightly down over the same time period (top panel, chart below). A significant price movement downwards will result in an exaggerated move further, as the long positions will continue to unwind. This is known as a “long squeeze.” On March 30th and 31st, shorts held a greater percentage than longs and a short squeeze occurred shortly thereafter, sending price much higher very quickly.
Fundamentals show that on-chain activity has continued to decrease after the block reward halving earlier this month. Both NVT and MVRV show no warning signs of immediate bearish continuation, but NVT remains well-above historic highs, again suggesting decreased on-chain utility compared to previous periods. Hash rate has definitively reached a plateau and is now experiencing a 30%+ reduction as the mining profitability sits at all-time lows.
Developer activity on the main GitHub repo has been nearly non-existent over the past few months, despite a recent Litecoin Core upgrade in June. Charlie Lee recently addressed this growing concern, explaining that LTC has a limited dev team who mostly merges BTC upgrades onto LTC. Further, Adrian Gallagher (thrasher), one of the core developers, works on a personal branch and merges finalized changes with the master branch at a later date, hence the lack of activity on the main LTC repo.
Trade closed: target reached:
Goal achieved.
Target is done
Target is done
Trade closed: target reached
Comment:
Bottom? Great work!
