BITFINEX:LTCUSD   Litecoin / U.S. Dollar
Here's a fresh macro look at Litecoin

LTC is rolling down in a purple down channel .

- We are making lower highs after lower highs in a down trend.
- We have already dropped from yellow/red major support zones into the green one. The last support zone is blue.
- We have been death crossed since April and rejected from all major D1 MAs.

The price has recently hit the confluence of targets at 21-22 levels, hence the bounce to the up side:
- bottom of the purple down channel
- front run on the bottom of the green support zone
- 0.618 fib projection
- -0.236 and -0.618 algo targets
- ending wedge in 5 on a smaller TF

Next Bear targets:
- 17.5 bottom of the green support zone
- 12.5-13.5 confluence zone: top of the blue support zone , -0.236/-0.5 algo targets
- 10 -0.618 algo target
- next touch of the purple channel's bottom band

Next Bull targets:
- 32.8-34 confluence zone
- 36 retest of D1 SMA / EMA 50
- 36.8-37 prev high, possible H&S neck in progress
- 39 top of the green support zone and purple channel's top band

We need to break all these resistances to switch to neutral from bearish on a daily.

No up trend until:
- EMA 12x26 cross up on D1 to change the trend,
- 5 waves up
- several higher highs on H4
- major divergences on all oscillators
- break prev high on D1 with several closes above
- D1 SMA /EMA100 have already crossed below 50 and will soon drag SMA /EMA200 with it, so it will be even harder for Litecoin to break 50 as all these major resistances start to come down.

50, 70 and 110 breakout levels will remain Major Resistances on the way up for the months to come.
I'm not bullish until we break 50 - the first major resistance on the way up
We may also form H&s with a neck at 37 to break out from the purple channel, but there are no guarantees.

Elliott Wave Counts:

The are 2 possible (ABCDE) triangles on a chart. You can have subcount variations depending on whether you count the waves in those areas as triangles or not. This complicates things because it is not clear where to start the wave count for the current segment from. In Y/Z you should have 3 waves, in 5/C - always 5 waves. If we use waves in place of the 2nd triangle - all corresponding prior wave ends should be moved from Aug 14 to Sep 12 ( CC5 , W3Y3) and blue wave 4 - moved 1 pivot ahead.

1) WXYXZ (red). Can also be seen as a nested WXY in W of a larger WXY
implies continuation in C to the down side to finish Z in one of the bear targets

2) WXY (green) - 2 nested WXY, with Y = a smaller WXY and (ABCDE) triangle in X
The smaller nested WXY has another triangle/ wedge in its X - or just normal waves depending on how you see it.
We need to finish (C) of Y of a larger Y

3) 12345 (blue)
implies no triangle, because you rarely have triangles in wave 2.
1234 doesn't fit into a channel, so we may have an extended 3 (end of 3 should be moved to ATL 23) which puts us in wave 4 correcting upwards, sort of like a continuation of the ABC yellow count. We may also form a triangle in wave 4.

4) ABC (yellow)
implies a very long 5-wave C in a down channel . It just looks long on log scale, but it's quite normal, nowhere near the 100% of A.
We need to finish 5 of C. The end of 4 can move to blue 4 depending on the triangle/ wedge , allowing for a nested 5 waves.



Good Luck!


Please don't trade based solely on my analysis, do your own research.

Comment: screen for reference:
Comment: as always, you can enlarge the chart/zoom in by clicking and dragging LMB on time/price scales
Comment: Expect a pullback to 28, 26.75 in B (0.5, 61.8% retracement, H1 EMA200, H4 EMA/SMA 50 support) and (if it holds) a move up in C to try to retest/break bull targets mentioned above. However the daily trend is still bearish and we may bounce from 33, 34, 37, 39 and not reach 43. Bears can attack anytime from any of those levels.

bearish:
- divergence on H1
- divergence forming on H4
- could not break prev H1 high at 33
- declining volume on H1
- failed to close above H4 EMA200 (wick penetration)
- failed to penetrate the bottom of the red resistance zone (red line at 33) and enter the range
- 5 green days in a row - time for reversal
- daily shooting star candle with a large top wick - reversal

bullish:
- EMA12,26 support on H1
- EMA12,26 cross/support on H4
- significant volume on D1
- managed to close above H4 SMA200
- closed above BB mean line on D1. If we go down and stay below the channel's median line - bearish. Some sideways action can help the bulls.
- 5 green days in a row

Also, even if we do form an H&S reversal bullish pattern - don't expect it to break up because bullish patterns naturally have a lower chance of playing out in a bearish market.

Comment: H1 divergence did not play out. We had an extension and will have another leg up in an ascending channel. The idea is to touch 36.8-37 - the neck of H&S.

From there we will retrace 50% to H4 SMA200 and the bottom of the channel in wave a, then retest 34 or even 37 again with a fake smaller shoulder, but not break it.

Then LTC will correct further in wave c towards 27.8-28 (prior green breaking point level, median line of the larger down channel) and from there a move up towards 49-50 (bottom of the red resistance zone, 1.618 of wave A and 61.8% retracement of the whole wave (3) down) becomes possible. However we may only reach 38.2%-50% (39,44) on that bounce which is more typical of wave (4), then continue down towards a proper capitulation.

We can also form an (abcde) triangle in (iv). Green bars are targets for waves (v) or C based on wave A and the height of triangle and its pole.

Blue count has a running flat abc. Primary count is green.

bullish:
- H4 SMA50x200 golden cross
- D1 EMA 12x26 cross - daily trend change may be coming soon
- we are in the top half, above the median line of the channel

Comment: We also have a major decline in the stock market (this remains a bearish factor) but I don't think that SPY will break W1 EMA/SMA200 on the first pass. It should bounce starting from monday and BTC, LTC will use that bounce to go up after a correction.

Comment: We have retraced to 61.8% which is typical for B/X waves and are now trying to break the bottom of the red resistance zone (red line).
We are above all major MAs and have a D1 EMA 12x26 cross up which may signal a reversal if not invalidated this week
We have a golden cross on H4 SMA50x200 but not yet on H4 EMA50x200


Updated counts:
1. green wxy up, then down - we need to finish the first wave of the bounce with another impulse wave up - more likely
we may or may not have a bull trap wick to 38, but not break the neck line at 37
invalidated if we go below H4 SMA200 and blue pitchfork's bottom band

2. blue wxy up
breaking up from the purple channel can also be a bull trap. More likely if D1 EMA 12x26 cross is not invalidated
and we manage to stay above major MAs
invalidated if we go below H4 SMA200 and blue pitchfork's bottom band. Schiff's pitchfork has a lower bottom band

3. red wxy - pullback down to 26 - less likely if we break 34 up (top of green support zone). Invalidated if we break 35
It's not an abc down because you can't count 5 waves in a. But it still can be a wxy down with 3 waves in each.
confirmed if we break 27.8-28, the purple channel median line, deatch crosses of H4 SMA/EMA50x200

Bull targets are the same:
37 iH&S neck
38 is 100% of the first wave of the bounce
39 is also -0.618 algo target
41 is also -0.236 algo target
42 is 161.8% of the first wave of the bounce and purple channel's top band
43 is 100% of blue W/green A, pitchfork median line
45 is -0.5 algo target
52 target of breaking the neck line of iH&S. -1 algo target
Note that on a Schiff pitchfork we have already made the target to the median line

Bear targets:
26 is -0.236 algo target, 100% of red w
24.5 is 0.886% retracement

Happy New Year!

Comments

On point analysis.
Reply
H1 divergence did not play out. We had an extension and will have another leg up in an ascending channel. The idea is to touch 36.8-37 - the neck of H&S.
From there we will retrace 50% to H4 SMA200 and the bottom of the channel in wave a, then retest 34 or even 37 again with a fake smaller shoulder, but not break it.
Then LTC will correct further in wave c towards 27.8-28 (prior green breaking point level, median line of the larger down channel) and from there a move up towards 49-50
(bottom of the red resistance zone, 1.618 of wave A and 61.8% retracement of the whole wave (3) down) becomes possible. However we may only reach 38.2%-50% (39,44) on that
bounce which is more typical of wave (4), then continue down towards a proper capitulation.

We can also form an (abcde) triangle in (iv). Green bars are targets for waves (v) or C based on wave A and the height of triangle and its pole.

Blue count has a running flat abc. Primary count is green.

bullish:
- H4 SMA50x200 golden cross
- D1 EMA 12x26 cross - daily trend change may be coming soon
- we are in the top half, above the median line of the channel


Reply
so I take it as LTC has a 50% chance moving up or 50% chance of moving down
Reply
@jafo2,

You don't seem to understand trading. Trading is a probability game. No one knows the outcome. The market is predictable to some extent because traders use the same decades old methods of analysis.
The market makers know all these methods and can use them against traders to move the price the other way at any given time. They can paint indicators to fool traders, and, more importantly, have access to order books/stop losses/liquidation points.

But think of trading as a game of Go. Do you know what the next move of your opponent will be? You don't. But you can try to predict it by analyzing current position on the board
(preferably with the help of AI as there are multitudes of combinations of choices that need to be assigned statistical weights that may ultimately lead to winning a particular game)
Sometimes those predictions play out allowing you to beat the opponent (sometimes TA does work)

Things that I'm showing are mostly basics/intermediate - just some levels that may trigger a move/reversal. Anyone can do it. Mastering Risk Management is a whole other thing to trading.
You only control how much you lose, nothing else. Buy/Sell signals/setups are not the same for all traders and depend on position sizes, account sizes, timeframe, your skills and overall risk that you are willing to accept and for how long. You can buy LTC at 30 but can you afford a drop to 10 and staying there for the next year? Or you can sell at 30 but then it will go up to 50. Is this an acceptable risk for you?
These are your decisions to make, not mine, nor other TA analyst's.

- If you're not a team player - you will lose
- if you can't read charts/don't know TA - you're blind and will lose
- if you don't use risk management/manage positions/hedge - you will lose.
- you yourself is your own enemy - your emotions, fears, mistakes, lack of time or ability to improve yourself by learning things etc
- statistically on average you will lose your account in 3 months
- you will lose in a bear market more likely than in a bull market and on a smaller TF more likely than on a larger one
- most of the time you trade against bots that know where your stops and liquidation points are and how much push the price needs to make you exit the trade at a loss
- other things. There are multiple points of failure you don't have any control of.

Longs story short, trading is complicated, you must be a hardcore type and eager to learn to succeed.

And you will certainly not do that by leaving comments like this.
Reply
jafo2 RagingRocketBull
@RagingRocketBull, ...i don't know i just trade off of past support and resistance or I buy at accumulation and sell at distribution, I don't use Ema, sma, etc. I'm mystified by indicators. They are pretty. I just try to keep it simple. I dabble in elliot wave when I'm bored. I'm aware of the 90-90-90 rule. This bear market I've increased my portfolio by almost 2000% but I didn't take one for the team. Well anyways I was just blown away by your chart all the colors and lines they inspired me, thanks
Reply
@jafo2, Oh, I see. You mostly do LTC. Good for you, consider switching to the light side, we've got more subtle colors and white backgrounds. Trading off of horizontals and occasional EW is a good strategy, but you should be aware of other methods to be able to look at the market from different perspectives. Also EW are trend agnostic, can be projected in any direction, so you must confirm the direction with trend indicators. Why not use MAs? They provide a bunch of valuable info, such as dynamic S/R, speed of movement by slope, relative overbought/oversold, can signal trend change etc. There's nothing mystical about indicators once you learn how they are calculated and that they are all lagging.
Reply
jafo2 RagingRocketBull
@RagingRocketBull, I trade btc and used to trade about 150 alts...i decided long ago it was all about the % LTC fit my time frames for the most gains. With the least amounts of moves. Most indicators all tell the same story just different pictures. by using support and resistance you can tell where the trends start and when they will be broken depending on the time frames and how strong they are. MA, Ema Sma get you in late and out late, and they lag. EW lags compared to demand zones unless you want to chase trades. I like mine coming to be. You can predict the trend of a move by just using the swing high and low of the top of a candle. Most of the tools you use are at least 40 years old. They work and fail because that's what institutional money wants you to believe. They got rid of all their traders and replaced them with bots that help them run you around in circles. That's why their bots keep the markets going with tiny trades to keep that carrot in your face. They keep you busy drawing lines, waves, looking at 30 indicators. Sometimes the best food is in it's simplest and purest food not manipulated by man to make a profit. Remember this Alcohol was made for Selling not Drinking. The indicators are the same.
Reply
jafo2 jafo2
@jafo2, Just think about EW, when was the study done? quite a few years back when FOMO was simple. I was on the internet in the early to mid 80'S and have seen it grow...do You think now days FOMO is out of control with all the tools out there to excite you? News, Twitter, Youtube..so if FOMO has grown so much how can a study from a simpler time be that reliable? Everything changes everything except EW, right? EW worked in the 70's when it was in it's hay day and everyone was using it because we were all on the same sheet of music. Indicators were invented to make it easier for the new trader to drag out their losses to at least 90 days to hook them to keep them pouring money back in...hmmm...kind of like that slot machine where everyone chooses the one with the pretty colors that makes them comfortable and happy while giving their money back. Trading is only as complicated as we make it...but in the end as someone is selling or a reason and someone is buying for a reason and 50% don't know why. is to sum this all up I guess your chart just made my brain bleed. But thanks for sharing.
Reply
jafo2 jafo2
@jafo2, Just think about EW, when was the study done? quite a few years back when FOMO was simple. I was on the internet in the early to mid 80'S and have seen it grow...do You think now days FOMO is out of control with all the tools out there to excite you? News, Twitter, Youtube..so if FOMO has grown so much how can a study from a simpler time be that reliable? Everything changes everything except EW, right? EW worked in the 70's when it was in it's hay day and everyone was using it because we were all on the same sheet of music. Indicators were invented to make it easier for the new trader to drag out their losses to at least 90 days to hook them to keep them pouring money back in...hmmm...kind of like that slot machine where everyone chooses the one with the pretty colors that makes them comfortable and happy while giving their money back. Trading is only as complicated as we make it...but in the end as someone is selling or a reason and someone is buying for a reason and 50% don't know why. is to sum this all up I guess your chart just made my brain bleed. But thanks for sharing.
Reply
jafo2 jafo2
@jafo2,Just think about EW, when was the study done? quite a few years back when FOMO was simple. I was on the internet in the early to mid 80'S and have seen it grow...do You think now days FOMO is out of control with all the tools out there to excite you? News, Twitter, Youtube..so if FOMO has grown so much how can a study from a simpler time be that reliable? Everything changes everything except EW, right? EW worked in the 70's when it was in it's hay day and everyone was using it because we were all on the same sheet of music. Indicators were invented to make it easier for the new trader to drag out their losses to at least 90 days to hook them to keep them pouring money back in...hmmm...kind of like that slot machine where everyone chooses the one with the pretty colors that makes them comfortable and happy while giving their money back. Trading is only as complicated as we make it...but in the end as someone is selling or a reason and someone is buying for a reason and 50% don't know why. is to sum this all up I guess your chart just made my brain bleed. But thanks for sharing.
Reply
Home Stock Screener Forex Screener Crypto Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features Pricing Refer a friend House Rules Help Center Website & Broker Solutions Widgets Charting Solutions Lightweight Charting Library Blog & News Twitter
Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing Referred friends Coins My Support Tickets Help Center Ideas Published Followers Following Private Messages Chat Sign Out