Here's a fresh macro look at Litecoin
LTC is rolling down in a purple down channel.
- We are making lower highs after lower highs in a down trend.
- We have already dropped from yellow/red major support zones into the green one. The last support zone is blue.
- We have been death crossed since April and rejected from all major D1 MAs.
The price has recently hit the confluence of targets at 21-22 levels, hence the bounce to the up side:
- bottom of the purple down channel
- front run on the bottom of the green support zone
- 0.618 fib projection
- -0.236 and -0.618 algo targets
- ending wedge in 5 on a smaller TF
Next Bear targets:
- 17.5 bottom of the green support zone
- 12.5-13.5 confluence zone: top of the blue support zone, -0.236/-0.5 algo targets
- 10 -0.618 algo target
- next touch of the purple channel's bottom band
Next Bull targets:
- 32.8-34 confluence zone
- 36 retest of D1 SMA/EMA 50
- 36.8-37 prev high, possible H&S neck in progress
- 39 top of the green support zone and purple channel's top band
We need to break all these resistances to switch to neutral from bearish on a daily.
No up trend until:
- EMA 12x26 cross up on D1 to change the trend,
- 5 waves up
- several higher highs on H4
- major divergences on all oscillators
- break prev high on D1 with several closes above
- D1 SMA/EMA100 have already crossed below 50 and will soon drag SMA/EMA200 with it, so it will be even harder for Litecoin to break 50 as all these major resistances start to come down.
50, 70 and 110 breakout levels will remain Major Resistances on the way up for the months to come.
I'm not bullish until we break 50 - the first major resistance on the way up
We may also form H&s with a neck at 37 to break out from the purple channel, but there are no guarantees.
Elliott Wave Counts:
The are 2 possible (ABCDE) triangles on a chart. You can have subcount variations depending on whether you count the waves in those areas as triangles or not. This complicates things because it is not clear where to start the wave count for the current segment from. In Y/Z you should have 3 waves, in 5/C - always 5 waves. If we use waves in place of the 2nd triangle - all corresponding prior wave ends should be moved from Aug 14 to Sep 12 (CC5, W3Y3) and blue wave 4 - moved 1 pivot ahead.
1) WXYXZ (red). Can also be seen as a nested WXY in W of a larger WXY
implies continuation in C to the down side to finish Z in one of the bear targets
2) WXY (green) - 2 nested WXY, with Y = a smaller WXY and (ABCDE) triangle in X
The smaller nested WXY has another triangle/wedge in its X - or just normal waves depending on how you see it.
We need to finish (C) of Y of a larger Y
3) 12345 (blue)
implies no triangle, because you rarely have triangles in wave 2.
1234 doesn't fit into a channel, so we may have an extended 3 (end of 3 should be moved to ATL 23) which puts us in wave 4 correcting upwards, sort of like a continuation of the ABC yellow count. We may also form a triangle in wave 4.
4) ABC (yellow)
implies a very long 5-wave C in a down channel. It just looks long on log scale, but it's quite normal, nowhere near the 100% of A.
We need to finish 5 of C. The end of 4 can move to blue 4 depending on the triangle/wedge, allowing for a nested 5 waves.
Good Luck!
Please don't trade based solely on my analysis, do your own research.
LTC is rolling down in a purple down channel.
- We are making lower highs after lower highs in a down trend.
- We have already dropped from yellow/red major support zones into the green one. The last support zone is blue.
- We have been death crossed since April and rejected from all major D1 MAs.
The price has recently hit the confluence of targets at 21-22 levels, hence the bounce to the up side:
- bottom of the purple down channel
- front run on the bottom of the green support zone
- 0.618 fib projection
- -0.236 and -0.618 algo targets
- ending wedge in 5 on a smaller TF
Next Bear targets:
- 17.5 bottom of the green support zone
- 12.5-13.5 confluence zone: top of the blue support zone, -0.236/-0.5 algo targets
- 10 -0.618 algo target
- next touch of the purple channel's bottom band
Next Bull targets:
- 32.8-34 confluence zone
- 36 retest of D1 SMA/EMA 50
- 36.8-37 prev high, possible H&S neck in progress
- 39 top of the green support zone and purple channel's top band
We need to break all these resistances to switch to neutral from bearish on a daily.
No up trend until:
- EMA 12x26 cross up on D1 to change the trend,
- 5 waves up
- several higher highs on H4
- major divergences on all oscillators
- break prev high on D1 with several closes above
- D1 SMA/EMA100 have already crossed below 50 and will soon drag SMA/EMA200 with it, so it will be even harder for Litecoin to break 50 as all these major resistances start to come down.
50, 70 and 110 breakout levels will remain Major Resistances on the way up for the months to come.
I'm not bullish until we break 50 - the first major resistance on the way up
We may also form H&s with a neck at 37 to break out from the purple channel, but there are no guarantees.
Elliott Wave Counts:
The are 2 possible (ABCDE) triangles on a chart. You can have subcount variations depending on whether you count the waves in those areas as triangles or not. This complicates things because it is not clear where to start the wave count for the current segment from. In Y/Z you should have 3 waves, in 5/C - always 5 waves. If we use waves in place of the 2nd triangle - all corresponding prior wave ends should be moved from Aug 14 to Sep 12 (CC5, W3Y3) and blue wave 4 - moved 1 pivot ahead.
1) WXYXZ (red). Can also be seen as a nested WXY in W of a larger WXY
implies continuation in C to the down side to finish Z in one of the bear targets
2) WXY (green) - 2 nested WXY, with Y = a smaller WXY and (ABCDE) triangle in X
The smaller nested WXY has another triangle/wedge in its X - or just normal waves depending on how you see it.
We need to finish (C) of Y of a larger Y
3) 12345 (blue)
implies no triangle, because you rarely have triangles in wave 2.
1234 doesn't fit into a channel, so we may have an extended 3 (end of 3 should be moved to ATL 23) which puts us in wave 4 correcting upwards, sort of like a continuation of the ABC yellow count. We may also form a triangle in wave 4.
4) ABC (yellow)
implies a very long 5-wave C in a down channel. It just looks long on log scale, but it's quite normal, nowhere near the 100% of A.
We need to finish 5 of C. The end of 4 can move to blue 4 depending on the triangle/wedge, allowing for a nested 5 waves.
Good Luck!
Please don't trade based solely on my analysis, do your own research.
Comment:
screen for reference:
Comment:
as always, you can enlarge the chart/zoom in by clicking and dragging LMB on time/price scales
Comment:
Expect a pullback to 28, 26.75 in B (0.5, 61.8% retracement, H1 EMA200, H4 EMA/SMA 50 support) and (if it holds) a move up in C to try to retest/break bull targets mentioned above. However the daily trend is still bearish and we may bounce from 33, 34, 37, 39 and not reach 43. Bears can attack anytime from any of those levels.
bearish:
- divergence on H1
- divergence forming on H4
- could not break prev H1 high at 33
- declining volume on H1
- failed to close above H4 EMA200 (wick penetration)
- failed to penetrate the bottom of the red resistance zone (red line at 33) and enter the range
- 5 green days in a row - time for reversal
- daily shooting star candle with a large top wick - reversal
bullish:
- EMA12,26 support on H1
- EMA12,26 cross/support on H4
- significant volume on D1
- managed to close above H4 SMA200
- closed above BB mean line on D1. If we go down and stay below the channel's median line - bearish. Some sideways action can help the bulls.
- 5 green days in a row
Also, even if we do form an H&S reversal bullish pattern - don't expect it to break up because bullish patterns naturally have a lower chance of playing out in a bearish market.
bearish:
- divergence on H1
- divergence forming on H4
- could not break prev H1 high at 33
- declining volume on H1
- failed to close above H4 EMA200 (wick penetration)
- failed to penetrate the bottom of the red resistance zone (red line at 33) and enter the range
- 5 green days in a row - time for reversal
- daily shooting star candle with a large top wick - reversal
bullish:
- EMA12,26 support on H1
- EMA12,26 cross/support on H4
- significant volume on D1
- managed to close above H4 SMA200
- closed above BB mean line on D1. If we go down and stay below the channel's median line - bearish. Some sideways action can help the bulls.
- 5 green days in a row
Also, even if we do form an H&S reversal bullish pattern - don't expect it to break up because bullish patterns naturally have a lower chance of playing out in a bearish market.
Comment:
H1 divergence did not play out. We had an extension and will have another leg up in an ascending channel. The idea is to touch 36.8-37 - the neck of H&S.
From there we will retrace 50% to H4 SMA200 and the bottom of the channel in wave a, then retest 34 or even 37 again with a fake smaller shoulder, but not break it.
Then LTC will correct further in wave c towards 27.8-28 (prior green breaking point level, median line of the larger down channel) and from there a move up towards 49-50 (bottom of the red resistance zone, 1.618 of wave A and 61.8% retracement of the whole wave (3) down) becomes possible. However we may only reach 38.2%-50% (39,44) on that bounce which is more typical of wave (4), then continue down towards a proper capitulation.
We can also form an (abcde) triangle in (iv). Green bars are targets for waves (v) or C based on wave A and the height of triangle and its pole.
Blue count has a running flat abc. Primary count is green.
bullish:
- H4 SMA50x200 golden cross
- D1 EMA 12x26 cross - daily trend change may be coming soon
- we are in the top half, above the median line of the channel
From there we will retrace 50% to H4 SMA200 and the bottom of the channel in wave a, then retest 34 or even 37 again with a fake smaller shoulder, but not break it.
Then LTC will correct further in wave c towards 27.8-28 (prior green breaking point level, median line of the larger down channel) and from there a move up towards 49-50 (bottom of the red resistance zone, 1.618 of wave A and 61.8% retracement of the whole wave (3) down) becomes possible. However we may only reach 38.2%-50% (39,44) on that bounce which is more typical of wave (4), then continue down towards a proper capitulation.
We can also form an (abcde) triangle in (iv). Green bars are targets for waves (v) or C based on wave A and the height of triangle and its pole.
Blue count has a running flat abc. Primary count is green.
bullish:
- H4 SMA50x200 golden cross
- D1 EMA 12x26 cross - daily trend change may be coming soon
- we are in the top half, above the median line of the channel
Comment:
We also have a major decline in the stock market (this remains a bearish factor) but I don't think that SPY will break W1 EMA/SMA200 on the first pass. It should bounce starting from monday and BTC, LTC will use that bounce to go up after a correction.
Comment:
We have retraced to 61.8% which is typical for B/X waves and are now trying to break the bottom of the red resistance zone (red line).
We are above all major MAs and have a D1 EMA 12x26 cross up which may signal a reversal if not invalidated this week
We have a golden cross on H4 SMA50x200 but not yet on H4 EMA50x200
Updated counts:
1. green wxy up, then down - we need to finish the first wave of the bounce with another impulse wave up - more likely
we may or may not have a bull trap wick to 38, but not break the neck line at 37
invalidated if we go below H4 SMA200 and blue pitchfork's bottom band
2. blue wxy up
breaking up from the purple channel can also be a bull trap. More likely if D1 EMA 12x26 cross is not invalidated
and we manage to stay above major MAs
invalidated if we go below H4 SMA200 and blue pitchfork's bottom band. Schiff's pitchfork has a lower bottom band
3. red wxy - pullback down to 26 - less likely if we break 34 up (top of green support zone). Invalidated if we break 35
It's not an abc down because you can't count 5 waves in a. But it still can be a wxy down with 3 waves in each.
confirmed if we break 27.8-28, the purple channel median line, deatch crosses of H4 SMA/EMA50x200
Bull targets are the same:
37 iH&S neck
38 is 100% of the first wave of the bounce
39 is also -0.618 algo target
41 is also -0.236 algo target
42 is 161.8% of the first wave of the bounce and purple channel's top band
43 is 100% of blue W/green A, pitchfork median line
45 is -0.5 algo target
52 target of breaking the neck line of iH&S. -1 algo target
Note that on a Schiff pitchfork we have already made the target to the median line
Bear targets:
26 is -0.236 algo target, 100% of red w
24.5 is 0.886% retracement
Happy New Year!
We are above all major MAs and have a D1 EMA 12x26 cross up which may signal a reversal if not invalidated this week
We have a golden cross on H4 SMA50x200 but not yet on H4 EMA50x200
Updated counts:
1. green wxy up, then down - we need to finish the first wave of the bounce with another impulse wave up - more likely
we may or may not have a bull trap wick to 38, but not break the neck line at 37
invalidated if we go below H4 SMA200 and blue pitchfork's bottom band
2. blue wxy up
breaking up from the purple channel can also be a bull trap. More likely if D1 EMA 12x26 cross is not invalidated
and we manage to stay above major MAs
invalidated if we go below H4 SMA200 and blue pitchfork's bottom band. Schiff's pitchfork has a lower bottom band
3. red wxy - pullback down to 26 - less likely if we break 34 up (top of green support zone). Invalidated if we break 35
It's not an abc down because you can't count 5 waves in a. But it still can be a wxy down with 3 waves in each.
confirmed if we break 27.8-28, the purple channel median line, deatch crosses of H4 SMA/EMA50x200
Bull targets are the same:
37 iH&S neck
38 is 100% of the first wave of the bounce
39 is also -0.618 algo target
41 is also -0.236 algo target
42 is 161.8% of the first wave of the bounce and purple channel's top band
43 is 100% of blue W/green A, pitchfork median line
45 is -0.5 algo target
52 target of breaking the neck line of iH&S. -1 algo target
Note that on a Schiff pitchfork we have already made the target to the median line
Bear targets:
26 is -0.236 algo target, 100% of red w
24.5 is 0.886% retracement
Happy New Year!