LTC April 2019. Great week! Now what. Trader Noxtreme overview. So you will rarely hear traders with larger follower groups (which I am not) talk real dollars, and who knows, maybe I’ll learn why, but basically I made about 570 on about 1200 investment. 46% Not bad right? Now let’s rinse and repeat. If you are a trader you should be in cash while the price drops. If your not and you prefer the investor Hodl approach. Good luck to you sir. Fooled me once ;) shame on you. I will not be fooled again. Crypto is not the stock market and this asset class is too volatile to just let money ride. You can get thousands of percent in a bull market trading or holding but the trader can make good gains or loose very little on the way down while an investor might have just realized up to a 95% loss (assuming you bought the very top and sold the very bottom). Moving on.
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I am back to all cash. I made great gains on BCH and LTC. I will catch the next wave when it comes. So where are we.
Bull: Looks like a very steep ascending channel or a GIANT bull flag on the 4 hr if you ignore that one huge red wick. Honestly it’s a strange formation but both possibilities are bullish so exactly what it is might be irrelevant. If we take a peek at the 1 hr you see we are in a downtrend and RSI is almost oversold so it looks like bear short term bull in the near future.
Back on the 4 HR we have HUGE volume coming in. There is an interesting repeating time cycle pattern in the volume… Not putting a lot of weight on this for analysis purposes but it’s worth noticing that buy/sell spikes are about 19hrs apart. Plus or minus 3 hrs. These spikes lead to really quick, violent moves.
Got to mention sentiment for bulls. WOW are the moon boys out in force. Everyone running around “this is different and bigger; we are potentially looking at million dollar BTC” when it was, “20k by 2021” just a week or so ago. Google search trend data just went gangbusters for all crypto search terms. It is like a sleeping bull giant awoke, impaled the bear and now all the bullish speculators are dancing around a camp fire chanting "we killed the bear." If the festivities continue we will see the euphoric "this is changing the world" multi day music festival type come out with their revolution talk. I'm just people watching and not in either camp but the similarities in market sentiment to the 2017 run up are notable.
Bear: Back to the 4 hr, RSI is on the high side. ON A STEEP downward slope
Mac D bear cross of 12 and 26 averages. Not surprising since we ran so far so fast and now we need to consolidate but it needs more time to come back to a bullish cross. The bull cross could be a first good entry point for a partial position.
HUGE divergence on the moving averages on the 4 hr. It’s hard to call this bearish because this would also be my main case for saying this is the start of a prolonged bull trend. Keep in mind we have not seen action like this in over 15 months now so this does "feel" bullish BUT we need to take "feel" out of this and recognize this is the FIRST large, quick move up in 15 months. It could be a giant BULL TRAP! Let’s not forget this move took 2 days and the best explanation I can find about why it happened is “Some rich dude bought 100 million dollars worth on the open market!" Cool… so then is he going to hodl that, orrrr.
SO let’s step back. This is why we trade successfully...... sometimes.
We have two classes of buyers right now. 1. “I missed the run, I need in NOW.” Also keep in mind it takes about a week to transfer USD into an exchange unless you buy with a credit card, but that carries a fee. Building the case we might see a few more days of down since USD transfers might not clear till mid next week if people are bringing new money in. 2. People like me that just made a solid gain and now are watching it drop. We want the most pullbacks possible while remaining healthy in an uptrend. So we went up 65% in this move so 21% pull back would be a 1/3rd. So buying around the 76-73 area is reasonable. Stop should be tight and FULL STOP 70.48.
Lets face it… Unless we get someone to buy 100 million in crypto again and they have the money on an exchange already were going down for now at least because people are taking profits after that big move.
Let me quickly make a case for WHY this could be the beginning of a longer term uptrend. What we see is 3 strong bull candles on the monthly. The third just started. In any case, the last time we had 3 bull months was leading into the massive bull spike of 17. Volume was notably higher on those candles though. What I see is RSI and MacD that are right at the edge of turning bullish bias strictly based on slope. Assuming we do continue up, these lines will get steeper up and then the trend becomes harder to break which is what you want if you are longing or trading bullish. What am I doing?
I am not eager to go in aggressively because this has been a bear market for 15 months so there is still significant downside potential. We are less than a week into that third green candle on the monthly and odds are against this candle closing green so I’ll consider half my account tradeable as I scale in on the bigger drops (using the 1 hr or 15 min time frames). I don’t want to get stuck all in now if we are going to go all the way back to the low 40s. We were in the low 40s 5 weeks ago so this is totally possible.
Good time for scalping Lots of people are scared and taking losses at the bottoms of dips on the shorter term time frames. This is pushing the price LOWER then most would expect based on simple support resistance studies and creating good bounce trades from the lows. Looking for oversold RSI on the 15min and 1hr charts.
You can see these scalp/bounce trades in how huge some of the 4 hour wicks are. I mean one of them is 14% which is a CRAZY loss to sit through or a great bounce to catch.
The current weekly candle has a 16% wick on the top right now. That is very tradeable volatility but also very easy to take a BIG hit on if you fomo in. Get a good entry and/or hold steady if you are confident in your TA.
I will be scalping the bottom of drops on the 1 hr. I am anticipating the price to wick down out of out ascending channel (seen on 4hr and 1hr) but resume the channel with HIGH volatility. Once we see the wicks start to shorten on the longer term time frames I will consider entering more aggressively for the next leg up. LTC rejected from 100. We were right there. Breaking 100 definitively will absolutely be a, bot trigger, psychological trigger, and a emotional trigger. You will want to have at least some kind of position when that happens I think. Also the having of mining rewards is in 123 days. I speculate this is why LTC is running harder then BTC but I am trying not to let this fact influence my decisions.
That is my story and I'm sticking to it.
PLEASE LIKE AND SUBSCRIBE IF YOU FOUND THIS HELPFUL. I welcome any comments and opinions if you have any.
NOT INVESTMENT ADVISE! Do your own research and tell me about it. :)
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So we are at about 16 hrs of very low volatility which indicates to me we should see a definitive move in the next 24 hours. It might be a good time to accumulate a little with tight stops. I believe there is still good possibility that we pull back and STOP OUT on this trade but loosing a little is better then missing what could potentially be coming. Risk to reward is the name of the game here. Scaling in slow and honoring 1-3% stops. Moving them up to break even if we get that support on the 4 hr at 88.62.
I am not loving the RSI on the 4 hr or 1 day, MACD still showing bearish, and price appears to be rejecting from 88-91 resistance area on the 4 hr above.
BUT VOLATILITY IS GONE which makes me think calm before the storm.
Scale in over hrs or even days if the price just stays pretty flat here. BUT ALWAYS HAVE STOPS and keep them tight. Lose a dollar or 10 and look for a lower entry.
Again Not investment advise. You do you.
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Another crazy day today but I made it through in relatively good shape. Sometimes preserving capital while scaling in is the name of the game.
So I posted before I was scaling in which I did. I said keep a tight stop, and I did (1%very tight). I moved in to about 25% positions over 2 hours. We then had a small dip. Most of that position stopped out.
Leaving 2 LTC from about 87.
I woke up to my chart alerts going crazy, kind of early on a Saturday. We took off rolled up about 13% on LTC. I also had BCH positions the night before but they all stopped out. BCH is a wild ride. It swings for the fences.
I ended up getting a few more BCH in the 300s, It hit the top dumped back down THE ENTIRE MOVE I cost averaged from about 327 to 311. Over 3 coins. Basically break even right now. Kinda want off the ride but I believe we are making bigger moves on this coin because we are in the price gap during the BSV fork. We are building supports as we move up through this range but we have no recent resistances until 380. I am giving this position a reasonable stop and going to see what happens Sunday/Monday. It is currently in taco money profit.
Before you think I should have stopped out, hold on, the reason I missed the initial 18% bch move is because I kept too tight a stop. I was never more than 3% down as I cost averaged so not too bad. Not good but I feel good about remaining calm and controlling my averages such that I have not taken a loss and I still have a great risk to reward.
Back to LTC. Bought and sold bought and sold. Broke even for the day. Holding a small position still that is in profit. We are too close to that 100 mark resistance to sleep on this coin and we just entered the fiscal quarter before block reward having. Take it with a grain of salt if you like but this is important in my mind so I think I will let this position have a bigger stop and see what tomorrow and Monday bring if we just keep chopping.
I have not reached my full 50% position yet.
I could have traded LTC better but I got greedy after most of my position stopped out before the move. I’m ok with breaking even considering how the day went.
Interesting event ETC --- WOW what in the world is going on with that. Up 104% then back do 40% of that move. Now holding around +55%. Not sure if I like seeing this or not. This happened in about a 15 min span. ALSO I have a nifty excel spreadsheet I use to calculate all my averages, stop losses, profits, losses as I trade. If you don’t have something like this, you should. It’s very helpful for managing multiple positions to keep yourself diversified and in line when things get hectic. It aggregates the totals at the end for everything. I will send you mine if you want. FREE lol just hit me up ALSO LIKE AND SUBSCRIBE :)
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Closed both LTC and BCH position. .57% loss. All cash except an ETH position that is in good profit today. I will try and get a new in depth thread up tomorrow. In short: Nearly everything is way oversold on the daily chart. Critical supports are being broken on the 4 hour LTC and BCH charts. I feel like we are in for a red day tomorrow. Should have sold the BCH position mid day for +5% but I was out and about. ETH position currently puts me in overall profit if I sell it but ETH is NOT oversold on the daily and I think this could hold steady or even go up while BTC, LTC, and BCH drop tomorrow. We shal see in the morning
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Noxtreme
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@safesignal, What are your targets based on.
picea13
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Thank-you for providing an excellent, in depth analysis of the past events, and agree with your insight and trading strategy. Excellent scalp opportunities!