LTC/USD Projection for 01-01-2014

BTCE:LTCUSD   Litecoin / U.S. Dollar
281 2 2
Using the last series of LTC/USD highs, markng an end of the $9.119 reversal rally, rolling over ... we could consider this to be a fourth top. And it lines up well with the overall descending trend. This fourth top is nearly a descending triangle , or a descending wedge . Nobody is surprised at this, it seems totally natural on the larger scale.

When we compare the general shape of the third and this fourth top, we can see they are much more similar in formation that the first two tops. The character of this fourth top is head and shoulders , nested in head and shoulders , and head and shoulders built from failed cups. And it was the building of a big cup on the 15M, the drawing of the right side of the cup, and an explosive rally off the rim of the cup, the side of the cup being an explosive rally as well, that took us to this fourth top.

We are still correcting from these wild, fast, parabolic highs to $48. Having seen a lot of juice squeezed from the fruit, plenty of panic, plenty of fear, and a bit of despair on the way down to $9.119, further correction and price discovery will be less compressed compared to what was a far more volatile and less mature market in late April, May and June of this year. A lot of bounce opportunities for day trading, making that dollar, exist on the way back down to the clearly defined consolidation and trading channel, (what will be resistance to further correction at that magic number, $16), to that $16 to $17 channel we launched the confirmation of uptrend from, coming out of the consolidation from the bounce at $9.119, consolidation in that channel. This $16 to $17 channel is the only channel we have seen during this entire event. And perhaps we seek safety there, :-), from further plunge and panic, a return to where we had hope, and it is of course a thin rail, but magnetic perhaps, perhpas we go sideways again in that channel.

We are going there to revisit the $16 to $17 channel, but I don't think we'll "bust through it", we'll bounce off of that into another series of flutter down broken cups and obvious 1M and 3M             head and shoulders . I think we'll bounce big at $18.33, a false reversal, and then a tumble back into the channel where we were supposed to go for safety and re-consolidation.

When we return to this $16 to $17 channel, it will be to retest that channel for resistance, and without big, good news, we'll drop below it to oscillate under the trading range of Novacoin. Novacoin typically trades in the same range as LTC, and competes with it by leading LTC after corrections. LTC tends to blast past NVC             during rallies, but come back to the more docile and less volatile NVC             . NVC             is a touchstone for LTC and in my opinion, LTC needs to cross under the spot of NVC             , once again, as it did when it put in the $9.119 low. When LTC crosses under the spot of NVC             , it will probably be as NVC             is rallying. So, perhaps $11.11 to $12.12 is our next low, and from there, on some good news, a strong reversal to take us back to the $26.50 to $29 levels, and perhaps a glorious battle of resistance at the $29.99 buy gate.
Thank you for the insight into NOVA coin and wallet downloads on your other chart. The speculation is deep with crypto but some pertinent indicators are great for market trending. Why does NVC lead after a LTC spike? Is it because of mining comparability or merely market similarities in the coin itself?
The coins are similar in that NVC and LTC are both "Scrypt" algorithm based coins. The primary difference between Litecoin and Novacoin is that the total number of coins that will be produced is much, much less with Novacoin, therefore, Novacoin is more scare, miners produce less per unit hour of time they mine, compared to Litecoin. So the miners and traders of Novacoin might tend to be more conservative, and the trading ranges of Novacoin are far less volatile then most of the other CryptoCurrencies. NVC is a solid hedge, and a good speculative investment in the CryptoCoin world and it's miners and those who hoard the coin are attached and dedicated. There was some controversy and a scandal that has held NVC back, but that is to the advantage of the Litecoin advocate, and provides a good anchor to compare Litecoin volatility against NVC. NVC certainly does enjoy the bullish, overall CryptoCoin market but in a more compressed and gentle realization of that.
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