profghibli
Long

LTCUSD potential leading diagonal wave 1 setup

BITFINEX:LTCUSD   Litecoin / U.S. Dollar
LONG setup for LTCUSD:

Entry at $54.5, (confluence of 0.618*A = C as well as 0.618 retracement of the whole leading diagonal )
Stop at $47.1 (under last low, would deny the diagonal being wave 1)
Targets = $73 (wave1 = wave3) and $84 (1.618*wave1 = wave3)
Trade active
Comment: Likely there is still 1 more small wave (5th of C) down ahead, so if you want to enter this trade but haven't yet, a buy limit at $51 (with stop at $47.1 and T1 = $68 and T2 = $80) would be perfect entry.
Comment: As predicted, today was another opportunity to get in at $51 (lowest point was around $50.4 or so), thought it is still possible there will be another small wave down while still keeping the main count intact, it is not likely anymore.
Comment: Insane pump on USDT exchanges. Is this a little spook or Tether really going to 0? Either way, I don't have any plans to change anything as my collateral is all in crypto anyway and I have a long vs USDT (this LTCUSDT long).

A bit of insight: https://twitter.com/CarpeNoctom/status/1...
Comment: Ouch, got hit really close to the stop. But no fretting, letting it play out.
Trade closed: stop reached: TAKE DOWN

Comments

I managed to buy plenty more at ~$50.9. Though, I re-assessed BTCUSD and find it likely to drop. Applying the same analysis to LTC puts the bottom ~$50, which we reached.
Reply
profghibli Teklologist
@Teklologist, I also added at $51, on another account. Yeah, as I said I am not sure what BTC will do, I won't try making predictions. At least LTC is looking pretty good compared to ETH, so there is a possibility that LTC has reached it's bottom. Or at least will have a stronger bounce up out of other coins (if this is just a leading A wave of 4 of C).

I also disagree with your wave 5 there( though it is arguable). I think wave 5 was the strongest and finished where you placed wave 3 top. Also, what happened before 1? Why did you choose that specific place to start the wave 1 count on BTCUSD?
Reply
Teklologist profghibli
@profghibli, displayed as such for aesthetics, but cropped to where a previous cycle had ended. Below is a snapshot of a more accurate wave count depiction that is less aesthetically pleasing.
+1 Reply
profghibli Teklologist
@Teklologist, Ah, I see now. Makes sense. Have you tried making a lower lever count this way? IIRC it doesn't add up that well. Anyway, let's see what happens next.
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Hello, I recently published a similar idea, though I posit that your a is actually c. Afterwards begins count towards sub-wave 3 of larger wave 1. Also, within the linked idea is link to another idea, which counts the last LTC cycle.
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profghibli Teklologist
@Teklologist, I believe those a-b-c would be too small to be of the same degree as the leading diagonal's 5 waves.
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Teklologist profghibli
@profghibli, you were correct. See my recent update. Also, I’ve suggested elsewhere that BTC and LTC were in cycle. This might be in correct. Recent lows bring a ~.81 retracement for BTC from its July high following its ~$5780 low, meaning it might have started a new cycle then and be currently setup for a wave 3. However, LTC reached a ~.81 retracement from its September high following its $47 low. Ultimately, be cautious of a BTC W3 pump, and potential LTC larger W1 or W3 pump.
Reply
profghibli Teklologist
@Teklologist, Yeah, I was tempted to read a-b-c like you but then wave b woul be extremely small, almost no way it could be correct. So I decided to go with a longer a-b-c count.

About BTC, BTCUSD currently is very hard to read, so I don't bother trying to do it (it's too ambiguous at this point). Would love if this LTC long plays out as I wish (btw, not the current reversal at the A=C sniped, although my entry was at 0.618*A=C, higher). If not, then I will wait for another clear setup like this one. I'm not eager to jump into a trade if this one fails.
Reply
profghibli Teklologist
@Teklologist, Also, looking at the smaller timeframe, it seems likely that wave 5 of C is still yet to come. We are finishing wave 4 of C right now most likely.
Reply
We are waiting for break-out confirmation on the 54.472 support to sustain a bearish trend:

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