Based on the daily chart, there are two possible formations developing. One is a descending triangle at the top of a up-trend, which is a very bearish signal of trend reversal (unless there is a higher volume towards the apex) and the second one is a symmetrical triangle / pennant on an up-trend, which is a bullish signal. There are two possible breakouts to the upside, one from the current support level of $230 (0.5 Fib level) in which case the target would be the ATH around $350. The other scenario will be a retest of the 0.618 Fib level around $198 with a bounce up to 0.236 Fib level at $307. At this time, there is a huge dump of BCH being executed against LTC through the OKex exchange, counting for more than 55% of the traded volume, so once this dump finishes, I expect the upside breakout. Good luck all !
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On the 5 minutes chart we have a nice price action with good volume. We just had the 0.618 retracement so it looks like a possible bottom. Good entry point if you want to "play". Meanwhile, on the more fundamental side, the BCH / LTC volume almost disappeared from OKex being slowly replaced by USD / LTC on GDAX. We might just be at the beginning of a rebound towards the two possible targets stated initially
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As much as I don`t like when the markets go against my ideas, I have to be fair and post the updates regardless. So, here it is: even though we are still in play and we didn`t reach the stop yet, it seems the formation developing short term is an inverted cup and handle. If that is the case, the price should climb to a max of $250 then continue down under the support of $200. Let`s see what will happen
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As mentioned before, LTC is in an inverted cup and handle formation. It just completed the handle a little above major resistance levels (30 EMA, former support line at $230 and descending wedge of the triangle). Here is the turning point to see if we start a bullish reversal or we continue a bigger bearish descent. To confirm the bulls, we still need to close above $285 level (the bottom of the inverted cup)
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It seems every coin has a "preferred" formation: LTC - cup and handle, BTC - head and shoulder, XRP - triangles
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So far the price evolved under the second scenario. Based on the daily chart, we can see how all the indicators align very nicely towards the critical level $198. An important Fib level (0.618), it points at the intersection of the apex of the symmetrical triangle with the 50 day EMA. So, this will be the "battle" ground to determine the next move: up towards the $300 levels or down towards the $150. The RSI is already below 50 and MACD very negative divergence with no signs of improving; volmue doesn`t help much nor the BTC price movement, which is testing again a major support level (4th time if I am correct) so it seems the market favors the down side Let`s see what happens next
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It seems LTC broke the triangle to the side however is low volume and still has one major battle to win before going up. Good news is that is established a small short term uptrend, so let`s see what happens next
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It seems we have some action: price broke strongly the previous resistance at @230; the 30 minutes chart show strong positive MACD divergence, RSI favor the upside and we have a full green candle closed above support, followed by another strong one. $250 seems next stop to be tested for the $300 run
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$250 reached within the hour, with a spike in volume. Good signs for the next level at $284. It might consolidate a little before a push up again
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All right, for the moment it seems consolidation is done, heading back up to retest the $250
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Things look good on the hourly chart; momentum seems to be building up for the assault of the next target, $285. Bullish RSI, good market depth, consolidation of the $250 seems completed tradingview.com/x/Ee7rM1NG//image]
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Here is another pattern that might be forming: a bullish bat. Still long way, but it might just be. If this is the case, it would match our levels to watch for a swing low, anything between $285 and $310.
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It seems this trade will go south again, to test the $200 levels for more support. Those who entered at $211 might consider reducing their positions (take some profits) if they are not comfortable anymore in holding. We hit the major support at $230 and it seems we have a bearish pennant forming on the 15 minutes chart. Of course market will decide further but it is good to read the charts for guidance. Good luck
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After some while with not much of an action, finally after the BTC run came to a halt, LTC decided to make a move as well. We are now back within the original "megaphone" formation, stopping just below the $280 level. For a successful push for the $300 level, it might need some consolidation before.
Trade closed: target reached
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It seems LTC didn`t have the patience to do the correction so it shoot up to $296. Since we are within 3% of our proposed target of $307 in this scenario, we can close the trade. It might go higher after consolidation, but since everything is in the overbought are safer to take the profits. Nice ride
Hi Haceru, I'm a new follower, and new to trading. Hope you have time for a question. I checked out OKex and I was surprised to see the significant, contemporaneous difference in prices between LTC on Coinbase ($250.62 USD) and on OKex ($285.50). Would you help me understand? Do people exploit this difference? Thank you!
Haceru
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@RootDigger, hi, thank you for following and for your comment. In theory, it is possible to take advantage of this price difference between exchanges - it is called arbitrage. However, in reality, it is extremely difficult to do it due to some barriers like registering for an account (some exchanges don`t support certain countries), finding a fast mean of transferring funds between exchanges (the so called bridge currency) and some more. To date, the only token suitable for this kind of arbitrage is XRP, which has 3 seconds transfer speed. Still, the other barriers remain. As for the price difference, there are very few exchanges ini the world that are actually accepting fiat deposits / withdrawals. All the rest, are "estimating" their price based on different criteria, like for example the USD / KWR exchange rate, the price of BTC on certain exchanges, and so on. Hope this helps :)
RootDigger
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@Haceru, Yes, it helps me understand a lot better. Thank you very much for taking the time to answer my noob question! Happy New Year!
Haceru
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@RootDigger, you are very welcome ... btw, there is no such thing as noob question :) Happy New Year to you too !
@london55555, exactly; however, this $250 is very important to break, since it is the "handle" of the previous cup. Also, the $285 is the inverted bottom of the cup, so still a lot of hard work ahead :)
NewYork888
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I would add one thing for ant NEW TRADERS out there seeing this ALWAYS but ALWAYS use LIMIT ORDERS when buying OR selling Crypto or you get screwed every time - these prices are all over the place . Best of luck to all and Happy New Year!
NewYork888
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@london55555, "Any" not ant
Haceru
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@london55555, agree and thank you for mentioning this. Also, I would say to be extremely careful due to the extraordinary speed of the price fluctuations; I would say this market is at least 10x faster with much bigger price swings than FOREX which in turn is much faster than the classic stocks.