Disclaimer: This is not financial advice, and I have never received training sufficient to give financial advice. For me, this is a hobby. This is my third published idea.
Foreword I am currently Long with approx 350 LTC at a dollar-cost-average of $58 per coin. I've linked below my breakdown analysis of the LTCUSD and BTCUSD cycles. This wave count analysis corroborates that breakdown analysis. The degree of waves for the counts in this analysis might be incorrect. My intent is to convey that we've reached sub-waves 1 and 2 of a larger wave 1. Sub-wave 3 is impending. Comments welcomed.
Analysis Sub-wave 1 price reached $65.8 from $47.2 with a length of 18 (approximations). Sub-wave 2 reached $56.4 with a length of 9 and .5 retracement (approximation). Sub-wave 3 will target from $74 to $103.
If price drops below $56.4 but it remains higher than $50, then consider that price to be sub-wave 2. Analysis becomes invalid if price drops below $50, exceeding an 81% retracement.
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Price dropped below $56.4 to ~$54 making it the new candidate wave 2 peak. Will monitor as price fluctuates. Current analysis still applies with a very slim error margin. I bought an additional 52.34 LTC at $56.4. Again, analysis invalid if price drops below $50. However, my stop loss is $43.
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Based on recent lows and weekly, price is/was targeting $50.7 for .81 sub-wave 2 retracement. Thus far, SW2 has reached $50.9, which might qualify as bottom. This changes our previous analysis as it was based on .5 retracement. I will post a visual later but the technicals follow. Likely scenario - Price remains above $50.9 - SW1: $65.8 (from $47.2) with 18.6 length - SW2: $50.9, 14.9 length, .8 SW1 — SWa: $56.4 and 9.4 length — SWb: $60.3, 3.9 length, .41 SWa — SWc: $50.9, 9.4 length, 1 SWa - SW3 TP: $68 - If bottom lower than $47.2, likely that new cycle has yet to begin. Possible Wave C peak. - If ~$50.7 reached, .81 retracement, then W2 peak
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Previous update was posted prematurely. It would be fantastic to edit and delete Idea updates, and any guidance on doing so will be appreciated. Please disregard the above points starting at SW3. The rest of the update and a snapshot follow.
- SW3 TP: $69 - $81, possible TP for (i) of SW3 is $62 - Scenario likely because typical Elliott wave multipliers and ratios were achieved. Analysis remains valid even if price drops to $50.7.
Less likely scenario - Price drops between $47.2 - $50.7 - Potential that we've reached W1 and W2 peaks instead of Sub-wave peaks - Would indicate much lower target prices are possible - Will update when applicable
Unlikely scenario - Price drops below $47.2 - Indicates we likely have NOT started a new cycle - Potential bottom for start of new cycle - Will update when applicable
Agree with your Wave 3 updated targets, with this drop being a bit lower than I expected, I also should move my Wave 3 targets $0.5 lower to get filled.
How do you come up with "possible TP for (i) of SW3 is $62"? What is it based on?
Teklologist
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@profghibli, conservative prediction. It’s my understanding that sub wave increments tend to be equal. Look at price differences of (i), (iii), and (v) for SW1 ~$12. Price of larger waves tend to vary by 1.618 principle. So possibly SW3 increments will be higher than $12, but much less likely that they’ll be less. If bottom remains $50.9 then $62 is plausible.
profghibli
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@Teklologist, I see. I thought those were some rules I did not know. Not going to lie it seems like a bit of a stretch in analysis, trying to predict too much.
Teklologist
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@profghibli, yes agreed. Personally, I do not plan to trade based on smaller increment waves. Waiting for ~$70 - $82.
profghibli
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@Teklologist, Also, just a small tip - it's already pretty hard for me to follow you (while I do know EWs theory), it's much harder for someone who doesn't understand EWs. It's best to stay concise. I know both me and you and most others do it simply as a personal journal/hobby, but we publish the ideas for others to read (otherwise there is an option to publish it as hidden/private idea), so to make it easier for people it's best to stick to the point (one thing you could easily cut to make it shorter - is delete the statements of what the price has just done, it can be seen on the graph already :)
Teklologist
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@profghibli, very useful. I appreciate the feedback.
invisiblefriend
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thank u as always --- i always seem to struggle with my stop loss ... im usually too tight ... and miss out --- ...
and other times I feel im just going too low at a loss and always feel the stops get hit when least expected - lol
so you feel good at 43$ stop loss
i was going to be at 49$ after purchasing more at 55.23 and 58.23 --
im wondering if you have a good place , formula or percentage you like keeping stop loses at ?
namaste
Teklologist
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@invisiblefriend, thanks for posting. I'll preface that I am more risk-tolerant than most with my investments, but I try to remain objective in my Ideas. I'm not a professional; however, I'll offer my insights as a trade hobbyist. By trade I'm an engineer and technologist with an analytical mindset. I began learning trading principles less than a year ago. I recently started following traders that appear to have more experience than me with Trading, such as @TomProTrader. My insights follow. I hope they help.
Trying to quantify your affinity to risk is a good place to start. Let's say you have a friend willing to risk $100 to earn $10 with .25 odds. You trust this friend but feel .25 odds is too risky for a 10% or $10. You would only feel comfortable if the odds were at least .5 or return 20%. Perhaps you have less capital than your friend, and a more comfortable risk is $50 for $5. Alternatively, any return less than $2000 might be meaningless to you. What if the potential return increased in 5% increments up to 50% for each $1000 invested, would you invest more?
If I buy 50 LTC at $58 with a TP of $75 then I hope to gain $850 on $2900, a 29% return. A 29% return is fantastic, right? Again, to some $850 might be meaningless. Others might have only $100 to invest. Is risking $100 worth the potential $29? All of this in a game where the odds are impossible to determine. Therefore, we subjectively qualify our odds by qualitatively measuring our confidence in the future of the technology (cryptocurrency/BC/DLT) we invest in. This is how you personalize your targets and stop losses.
To bring this full circle, I rely on Elliott wave and market psychology principles to determine objective' targets which are what I share. However, I might subjectify an investment after balancing how I would feel losing X with how I would feel earning Y. Therefore, as a trade hobbyist and not as a financial adviser I suggest you try to personalize Ideas from TV that you follow. If someone suggests entering a trade at $58, a target of $75, and $50 stop loss, then there's no harm in adjusting your own investment to your comfort. E.g., setting a $72 target with a $54 stop loss.
How do you come up with "possible TP for (i) of SW3 is $62"? What is it based on?