LTCUSD: Bearish Price Action Near Bullish Reversal Zone.

BITFINEX:LTCUSD   Litecoin / U.S. Dollar
LTCUSD update: A strong outside bar has appeared in this market which can be the beginning of the next retest of the bearish trend line . The current hesitation though can be cause for concern, depending on how the candle closes. Keep in mind, this market is following BTC which means even in the face of bearish structure, the greater potential remains bullish .

The bearish trend line is still in play around the 108 level. Beyond that, the 125 resistance (.382 of recent bearish structure) still stands. Price still has a ways to go before we can get excited about any significant bullish gains.

Until it takes out those levels, it has the 90 reversal zone boundary holding up any attempts lower. This is the area to watch for accumulating opportunities.

With the price as low as it is, BTC does not have to go far for this market to spike higher. Look at ETH. At S.C., we called a swing trade long back on 6/13 which hit its 55 point profit target earlier today. BTC did not do anything spectacular, yet ETH outperformed. The same type of behavior can take this market by surprise as well.

In summary, short term formations may be bearish , but it is the probability of the bigger picture that carries more weight at these prices. The major coins are in an area where a large magnitude failed low can be forming. Like I wrote in a previous BTC article, these markets are in a hot spot, all they need is a surprise catalyst and off they go.

Most importantly you must be able to make your own decision. You must do it based on your own reasoning, not what the "experts" think. The herd of analysts are calling for BTC 3K. Now? Why weren't they calling for this when BTC was at 18K? If you read the reports I was writing at that time, I was promoting caution and staying flat while the crowd was feverishly buying.

If you find yourself confused by the conflict, then avoid these markets all together. Eventually they will work themselves out and make more sense, but by that time, you will be paying much higher prices.

Avoid the noise and follow the charts on the bigger picture. That is where you will find more clarity.
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Want to get long ... very long in all the majors. With a 1, 3 and 5 year + time horizon, I am liking these levels a lot. Hope the talking heads keep talking this market down because I am a buyer all day long.

Happy hunting.
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get ya a fun btc read here
So much common sense in your analysis..great job!! :)
"If you read the reports I was writing at that time, I was promoting caution and staying flat while the crowd was feverishly buying."

If I remember well, you made absolutely no trade from 10k to 20k. Yes, you were cautious and were expecting a reversal, so did many of us, but honestly, if you took a little more risk, you could have made a few swing trades.

I think it's also important to get the whole picture here. You being overly cautious or how I call it, greedy for lower prices, works well in a short term bear market, but when it comes to riding the early euphoria, you missed. And no matter how much you want us to believe "the plan", I'm sure you were human and bite your fingers quite a bit on that one.

You are an exceptionnally good trader, no arguing there, but let's be honest all the way. If you arr going to pat yourself, give the whole picture.
Zilch274 RamzaBehoulve
@RamzaBehoulve, it's called risk management, and in this type of market, that shouldn't be taken lightly whatsoever
@Zilch274, he waited 2 months for an hypothetical retrace that never came because he never adjusted up his expectations. It's one thing to be cautious, it's another to be flat out greedy for a price lower than it can realistically be in the context.

I have a lot of respect for Mark, he is an exceptionnal trader, but his tendency to try and distance himself from the herd when he himself sometimes js part of it is why i call him greedy. Being greedy is not just buying high, it's also waiting too low a price.
great analyst once again Mark! Time will tell when this catalyst will appear. I agree, for now the charts will tell us the forecast.
What catalyst do you think there can be? If ETH is not a security wont do anything, what will?
@Arwyn, SEC president interviee was not an official news report from the SEC as a whole. Maybe we'll get the official statement this week.
wli2305 Arwyn
@Arwyn, not that is would be a big catalyst but it would help a little at least when CBOE recently spoke about ETH Futures to be release sometime near future. We could use anything at this point to make a nice small swing trade. Right now, the majority herd is losing faith in the market. These levels are crazy low & all the positive bread crumbs from media have been laid out recently, all this showing outside institution funds planting seeds for a transition, this could happen literally anytime but likely next couple months. Time will reveal all.
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