So far, LUNC's movement behavior is analyzable by technical analysis and Elliot waves. That is, the corrective 2 and 4 waves both ended at 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement; And the impulse wave 3 have been extended to 1.618. So, if the impulse wave 5 grow bigger than wave 3 it can extend past the 1.618 about 0.0041. Otherwise, it probably going to be smaller than wave 3 and extend up to 1 Fibonacci extension; that is about 0.00125.
There is another possibility and that is the corrective wave 4 is not finished yet and going to unfold in complex waves. Lets wait and see which happens.
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So the last possible scenario, the one which 4th wave is not finished, has happened. Now, it seems the corrective wave has ended. Although it could also unfold in a complex form, so more minor downtrend waves could form. Anyway, the newest analysis is added.
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It seems an inverted Cup and Handel pattern is forming; not a good sign. If such a pattern happens, the last hope for this scenario is to end near the horizontal blue line; Otherwise, not sure! :( Let's see what happens.
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Fortunately, the cup and handle pattern scenario failed since the handle part didn't formed properly. After that price moved sideway in a consolidation zone. Let's see if price can break this zone upward.
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It seems a downtrend channel has formed. If true, something like this might happen.
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So, LUNC is continuing the downtrend move. The last line of defense/support is the horizontal area. If price breaks blow this area, there are no limit for further drop! Let's see what happens.
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There has been some movements in LUNC. It seems the downtrend move ended before passing the previous major low B. Also, price broke the downtrend line upward. Does this mean the next impulse wave started? Let's see what happens.
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So, after LUNC broke the downtrend line, price tested the low level B, and now it seems LUNC is trying to break the minor downtrend line. Let's see what happens.
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Now it's LUNC time to start an upward impulse wave (along with LUNA). Let's see how strong this wave will be and how far can go.
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Just like LUNA, LUNC broke the minor horizontal resistance area and made a pullback on this area which then acted as support and now going up.
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So, LUNC went up as expected but did it sharply. It seems a 5-wave move is unfolding, and LUNC is currently in the 4th wave, the corrective wave.
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It seems the 4th wave could either be a descending channel or a descending triangle, or it could become a complex one. Let's see what happens.
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Just an update.
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It seems LUNC is ready for some movements. Let's see what happens.
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Last time, correction wave ii ended when RSI went below 30 and then came up. Could this happen for correction wave iv too? Let's see what happens.
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So, the RSI scenario played out again and LUNC went up and broke the minor downtrend line. Still, volume and momentum are missing; let's see when traders jump in.
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So, LUNC's corrective wave unfolded in a complex form, and now it seems the descending channel is breaking upward. Let's see what happens.
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Just an update. LUNC broke the descending channel.
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So, it seems a big triangle pattern is formed and LUNC is going up toward the triangle's upper line. Let's see if LUNC can break this line successfully.
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So, LUNC has reached the major downtrend line. If able to break it, interesting things can happen. Let's see what happens.
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So, LUNC couldn't break the major downtrend line and went into correction. LUNC is gaining momentum to attack this major downtrend line again. Let's see if can break it this time.
A long slow bleed is coming to new lows. Nothing valuable in this project other than "become a millionaire overnight" hype which is also dying as common sense and basic math overtakes the dream state people are in.
wish u are right bro , i am long too at 0.00017390 with 5x leverage
Solldy
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I second that! It's a little early to make a prediction now, of course, but all the arguments are the same as the ones I highlighted for myself. So, my scenario is almost completely the same)
ghazalik
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Thanks gor good analyze: I opened a long position on lunc at 0.0000278 do u think it might go up?
SaeedSalehinia
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@ghazalik, You are already in profit. Thumbs up :) I think over the long run (say 1 year or even more), LUNC will be bullish. However, bear in mind that the direction of BTC trend is still in a downtrend, and another major downward wave can impact the whole crypto market. Most importantly, many countries' economies are going into a stagflation (stagnation + inflation) period; so the outcome of such a scenario on crypto markets is still unknown. So, be careful.
famousTuna67048
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and we'll get to 00035usd range - where we will let the spring relax for a little bit and then we will create wave 1 up toward 0,001
TradingOn
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I wonder how you calculate the Fib 1 and why didn't you place it on the wave 3 top?
SaeedSalehinia
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@TradingOn, The Fibonacci extension calculate how much a wave can extend (upward or downward) based on a reference wave. Here the reference wave is impulse wave 3. The Fib extension tool require 3 points (or clicks) to calculate and draw the lines: First) the start of the wave 3. Second) the end of the wave 3. Third) the end of the wave 4 (the corrective wave). Please note, as stated above, the current analysis is based on the assumption that corrective wave 4 has ended; if not, the Fib extension on wave 3 must redrawn once the wave 4 end.
SaeedSalehinia
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@TradingOn, More explanation: with Fibonacci extension we can calculate how much the probable impulsive wave 5 would extend compared to impulse wave 3 starting from the end of corrective wave 4. So, the Fib extension line 1 for wave 5 will always be grater than top of the wave 3.