Southwest Airlines | Descending Within a Falling Channel

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Southwest shares are currently sliding inside a defined down channel as we head into the next earnings print. Price is testing lower levels and the next structural support sits around the $41 area, which has held previously. The RSI remains soft, suggesting limited upside momentum for now.

Macro/context: Southwest is in a transition phase on its revenue mix. After decades of its “bags fly free” model, the airline has shifted to assigned seating with premium and extra-legroom options, alongside newly introduced checked baggage fees as part of a broader effort to lift revenue per passenger. Management has outlined that these ancillary streams (paid seat choice, bag fees, new fare bundles) are expected to contribute materially to earnings and help boost margins as the business evolves. 

With earnings near, watch how guidance around these new revenue initiatives influences the reaction off support at ~$41 and whether the falling channel continues to cap strength.

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