Mastercard (MA) LONG — 1D ALMA Setup (WR 79% · avg RR 2.6)

Sep 4

MA · 1D · long only.
(Context: Mastercard — global card network / payments + value-added services — consumer-spend and rate/policy beta on the 1D ALMA Averaging template.)

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█ RESEARCH HUB

Category: US stocks sentiment 58.1 (Greed) — broad equity gauge constructive; MA path is the payments pair window below.
Sector: US · Financials 84.6 (Extreme greed) — built from 40 locked notes (34 constructive / 3 risk-off / 2 mixed). Sector greed is backdrop; name tape is ATH → fade digestion.
Asset: mixed / moderately positive (equity brief 04 Sep · window 05 Aug–04 Sep). ~$570.48 (05 Aug) → peak ~$599.86 (24 Aug) → ~$582.11 (04 Sep close); 30d ~+2.0%; ~−3.0% from peak. Analyst PT raises + consumer ATH day vs late-Aug rate fade.

Tape:
- 2026-08-05…14 · constructive · Truist Buy PT $633 (05 Aug) · Bernstein $710 (12 Aug) · DBS $625 (14 Aug) — Street bid into mid-Aug.
- 2026-08-07 · mixed · dividend paid $0.87/qtr; same week early dip close ~$562.95 (−2.3%).
- 2026-08-21…24 · constructive · V/MA pair-rally on resilient US consumer; BofA card spend July +5.0% y/y; MA +3.3% to close ~$599.86 (intraday ~$599.99 — record area).
- 2026-08-24 · risk-off overlay · CCCA / interchange scrutiny restated as perennial policy risk into the ATH print.
- 2026-08-25…28 · constructive · Wolfe Outperform PT $740 (25 Aug) · RBC Buy $696 (28 Aug) — Street high / consensus lift.
- 2026-08-31…04.09 · risk-off · fade ~$600→~$581–582 on hike/yields week; 7d ~−2.2%; tape still ~13% below Wolfe $740 / ~13% below consensus ~$667.

Calendar:
- ~2026-09-15 · dividend declare (pattern) · direct · flow
- 2026-10-29 · Q3 FY26 earnings · direct · earnings
- ongoing · CCCA / interchange legislative noise · direct · policy
- Sep window · US jobs / CPI / FOMC path · indirect (consumer + rate beta) · macro

Hub verdict: Financials Extreme greed vs a mixed-moderately-positive name window: mid-Aug consumer ATH ~$600 plus stacked PT raises built the bid; late-Aug/Jackson Hole fade left tape ~$582 — still below Street ~$667–740. Hub frames a post-ATH digestion long on the daily Averaging clock under the ~$600 shelf, with CCCA as policy overlay.

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█ MARKET EDGE

Long Edge 7.8 · Short Edge −6.1 (04 Sep snap ~580.15 · fill ~580.73).
Built from: HTF EMA still Above · daily ALMA OVERHEAT-S · VWAP Support touch · SMC bull FVG raids — soft repair skew on a thin score board.

Positive factors
- ALMA — 1D SHORT OVERHEAT-S · S:8 vs SAvg:3.8 — daily execution band stretched short vs its own average run (Averaging fuel on the Idea clock)

- VWAP — Support ~581.72 (from 12 Aug) — chart touch Support; fill ~580.73 tags the active support shelf
- SMC — 4H FVG Enter Bull ~584–586 (03 Sep) · B57% / Br43% — nearby 4H demand into the arm

- SMC — 1D FVG Raid Bull ~585.71 (03 Sep) · B58.2% / Br41.8% — daily bull raid skew near the fill

- PA — HTF bullish FVG formed + filled — higher-TF demand housekeeping on the board
- Score skew soft long ~7.8 vs short ~−6.1 — soft repair tilt

Negative factors
- ALMA — 1W LONG OVERHEAT-L · L:11 vs LAvg:3.9 — weekly band stretched long while daily is OVERHEAT-S (TF war)

- EMA — 4H Above · Cur L:99 · Dev −0.1% — 4H time-stretched Above and pinned at the line (late / fragile on the mid clock)

- SMC — 1D OB Enter Bear ~585.71 (03 Sep) · B41.2% / Br58.8% — bear inventory pocket coexists with the bull raid

- SMC — 1W OB Enter Bear ~595.3 (24 Aug) · B23.5% / Br76.5% — weekly supply near the ATH shelf

- VWAP — Resistance ~591.68 (from 25 Aug) overhead — first reclaim shelf under the ~$600 peak
- TL — Support Break (27 Aug) · B68% / Br32% — recent support-break skew on the fade

- Edge scores are thin (Long only ~8) — first lot only (1 of 4) leaves thin cushion if payments gap lower before adds qualify

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█ DESK

Hub is mixed-moderately positive on the name (ATH + PT stack vs −3% fade and CCCA overlay) while Financials sits in Extreme greed. Edge is a soft repair tilt (Long 7.8 vs Short −6.1) from daily ALMA OVERHEAT-S into VWAP Support ~581.7, with HTF EMA still Above. Alignment: daily Averaging arm into the post-ATH / hike-fade pocket (~$580.73 on 04 Sep 13:30 UTC). Visa 3D sister on the same session is desk-only (gate FAIL).

Bar-close refill on 1D at the active VWAP Support shelf after the ~$600→~$582 digestion — process entry first, consumer ATH headline second.

Takeaway: the 1D ALMA strategy and 79% WR / 2.6 avg RR support a disciplined first-lot arm ~$580.73 into post-ATH fade, with daily ALMA OVERHEAT-S, VWAP Support ~581.7, 4H/1D bull FVG demand, and a mixed-moderately-positive Hub window (PT raises · consumer ATH · Street ~$667) framing repair fuel — while Financials Extreme greed, weekly ALMA OVERHEAT-L vs daily OVERHEAT-S, 4H EMA L:99 at the line, weekly bear OB near ~595, and thin Edge scores with only 1/4 filled keep the path a grind under ~$600; nominal risk stays on the −10% hard stop / Pine exit path.

Base case: follow 1D ALMA Averaging · hold/add on qualifying daily closes while the ~580–586 support / FVG pocket digests · mean-revert toward the ~590–600 VWAP Resistance / ATH shelves if payments beta holds above the stop zone.

Bear case: lose the ~580–582 VWAP Support cluster · rate / CCCA headlines reprice · template posts −10% toward ~$522.7 from the working average · wait for the next bar-close arm.

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█ STRATEGY

ALMA Averaging Strategy: ALMA 3 / σ2, SD band 2, min diff 3/3, 25% per bar, up to 4 adds, hard stop −10% from the working average.

Lots (1 of 4):
- Lot 1 — 04 Sep 13:30 UTC ~580.73
Working average ~580.73. Hard stop −10% from that average ~522.66.
Adds 2–4 stay 25% per bar if lower closes qualify.

Strategy Tester (MA 1D):
Win rate 79% · profit factor 3.4 · max drawdown 7%
Avg winning trade +18.6% · avg losing trade −7.2%
Typical hold ~57×1D bars on winners — large-cap payments mean-reversion grid on the daily Averaging template · 197-trade sample

Exits when the Above-ALMA run clears its historical average (min diff) or the −10% hard stop from the working average.

Chart: MA 1D — ALMA Averaging Strategy.

Educational idea. Live position — past backtest ≠ future results. NFA.

2 days ago

Trade active

Update: The MA 12H ALMA long cycle began on September 9 and accumulated four fills through September 11. The strategy closed the lots in stages between October 9 and October 13, with the final lot exiting at $599.93 on October 13. Journaled lot-level model returns ranged from +3.89% to +6.12%. This MA 12H cycle is now closed.