On Jan 11, 2017 I posted my short on MAC based on the changing tenor of the American consumer. The shift to online shopping was and is the greatest threat to retail in my opinion. MAC was a highly leveraged deep in debt company that, in my opinion was in the crosshairs of industry that would be facing some serious headwinds. Rent PSF was going to plummet as anchor stores throw in the white towel.
Well... 3 years to the month and this resulting chart speaks for itself...
Now we enter a new phase in mall REIT turmoil. It's known as COVID-19. This could very well be the nail in the coffin as community gathering has significantly been reduced. Malls and mall tenants have some serious challenges before them.
Comment
⋅
My 2018 continued short call after the neckline break confirmation on the bearish H&S. Mother Market simply punished mall REIT stocks with absolutely NO mercy whatsoever!
Trade closed: target reached
⋅
Bankruptcy watch in progress
Comment
⋅
When I posted the March 1 update with the COVID-19 mention, while others were discounting the virus as a non event, I knew there would be a significant impact. However, In my wildest dreams I would never have imagined to what extent the impact turned out to be. My heart goes out to those who've succumbed to this awful scourge known as COVID-19
If you were a women you would understand why shopping will never die and why Amazon will never replace old fashion shopping. Thanks to knowning how my wife think i opened longs on many mall and outlet REITs
streetgainer
⋅
@SpecialAmbassador, "Amazon will never replace old fashion shopping"....!?... My answer to this is simply: Forever 21, Dress Barn, Charlotte Russe, Charming Charlie, Avenue, Destination Maternity, A'gaci, Victoria's Secret, Francesca's.... and many many more either failed, or are bankrupt and or closing stores and this is just a partial list of women's clothing store chains. The store chain Chico's was smart, they knew they couldn't beat amazon so they joined amazon!
amazon has already replaced "old fashion shopping"
Good luck on your long nonetheless
PhilippeDelpCFA
⋅
no worries it is already trading at 20% book value so the downside is limited we talk about prime location real estate worst case scenario.
The last information the company fave was all goof to serve the existing debt and cash flow needs I doubt this will kill shopping malls altogether because some rich foxes like them and being online is not the same for luxury items
What ever at this price it is not a huge risk and the upside is greater than the downside even considering a 100% loss because you can easily double or triple by next year when all is over.
Anyway well down for your bet this is a great coup , I did the same with Tesla and spce but did not see this one nvm
Mu view is that although I agree with the all Amazon economy , privileged clients still love to go for shopping in B&M shops to experience the product and feel special so luxury shopping malls will not disappear anytime soon they will just transform to experience shopping
PhilippeDelpCFA
⋅
dividend yield is staggering and it happened in the past already , they keep paying it and fundamentals so far support the Div
I ove this REITS but looking at it better wait the price continue to fall
Do you think can reach again lowest point of 5 ? would be a dream for my long term income , even at that time they still paid the 30 % plus dividend , it never was challenged