Get started
Quixilver_stx

Does SPX vs PMI divergence signal upcoming recession?

ISM Manufacturing Index (ISM:MAN_PMI)  
Quixilver_stx  
ISM:MAN_PMI   ISM Manufacturing Index
Beyond Technical Analysis PMI S&P 500 (SPX500) SPX (S&P 500 Index) ISM
5
0
beyondta pmi spx500 spx ism
No, not really. Only 3 of 7 divergences signaled recessions in the last 50 years. Besides, some recessions did not have any divergence.

So data doesn't support the recession is coming thesis.

Red flag -> Divergence with recession following
Green flag -> Divergence w/o recession
? -> No divergence signal before recession

(This post is in response to some comments I received)

Related Ideas

Quixilver_stx
ISM vs SPX yoy divergence signals more downside coming
Quixilver_stx
2014-15 period as a guide to current environment
Quixilver_stx
SPX performance vs PMI diverging significantly
Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.