Additionally, I have a calculation for RIOT wherein wave C= 1.618 A @ 44.28. Today, was a retest of the recent low, the slope of the latter part of the decline looks unremarkable flattening, therefore if a low hasn't formed then it might come closer to 44.28, but it's close enough and these calculations are rarely perfect but it's ballpark. Today's low is 45.22 and has traded down to just under 45 in the post market, last 45.60. All this with BTC not making new lows.
pechi123
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Another count is that there is a small 5 waves up from the low 26.06, and we are now forming a wave 2 bottom above 26.06. That would surprise everyone.
pechi123
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This mornings' highs in MARA (37.69 filled gap under 37.89) and BTC 52,076 likely is wave c of X joining A with larger C down to come. If by chance these highs were taken out and come above the gap, that would be 5 waves up and have more immediate bullish connotations.
pechi123
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Key resistance with MARA is 46.40, and 58.77 in RIOT. Since RIOT had an extended 3rd wave then MARA should outperform percentage wise. RIOT's 5th wave likely will be shorter than 3, and similar to wave 1. MARA didn't have a sharp slope in 3 and 5 will likely be longer than 3, 3 can't be the shortest wave in Elliott Wave Theory, but it already was longer than 1 so it's good if it's extended. The first hint of this was earlier today MARA outperformed RIOT though it's uncertain a low has formed. This is theory not a predication.
pechi123
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BTC put in an interim top in the 56K range during the post-market session last Friday afternoon though it was up about $1200 from the close it didn't move the needle in either MARA or RIOT post market, in fact there were slightly down from the close in very heavy volume. Last Thursday, both made a 52 week high (49.41 & 79.50), then sold off sharply, Friday morning they gapped up and put in a lower high (46.40 & 77.82) then sold off substantially midday into the close, this is a setup forming B wave of at least Wave A in an A-B-C correction, wherein C has traveled Fibonacci 2.618 x A in MARA (not RIOT), late Saturday night or early Sunday morning BTC put in its' all-time high 58,332, the 56-58K area is the 1.618 and 2x wave 1, under Elliott Wave Theory a potential top of wave 3 of 3 since it was fully developed structure with excessive bullish sentiment, and weakening technical indicators. After the setup the entire blockchain, Grayscale issues, and Crypto complex simultaneously corrected because several had broken their prior highs, with a nice run but this window to take profits is just a few days or less. Then came the statements from Yellen, Musk, and Gates after these markets already put in their highs and confirmed a setup for a sell, they are not the causation of anything, in fact there was another set of remarks making headlines yesterday but a low was formed at least on a temporary basis, the market mood got very ugly and many sold at or near the lows, some waiting on the sidelines like dear caught in headlights too scared because echoing "Crash", volume spiked hourly but not on a multi month basis. I've been doing this for 35 years and markets setup before news, news writers aren't traders, they just write stories with false correlation, markets can go up or down on the same news, people who trade on news lose their money. I don't know if yesterday's lows will stand, it could be the entire A-B-C correction or just wave A only having 3 waves, if that's the case then today's highs is an X (36.54 & 56.46) wave with all of C to follow in 5 waves. That being the case, MARA will make a new low under 26.06, there is a gap left from 2/5 that could be filled down @ 21.90, if C=A or equality the most common relationship, then it could go to about $13, but I doubt this since C of A was 2.618, that's already very extended, any low under 26.06 could be the terminus but I suggest if this happens (+-) 21.90 would be a magnet. Irrespective if BTC makes a new low or not, this could still happen and will probably accompany BTC getting close to its' recent low 45,060 (varies per exchange). Right now in the post market both MARA and RIOT are flat from the close, but are well off the days' high, BTC is also off its' earlier X high 51,446 down to 49,704, its' B wave comes in just over 55K (made early Monday while blockchains & Grayscale all gapped down), coming over the B wave high will be the first indication a low has formed from where ever that is.
pechi123
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I wrote you a response that I edited but somehow got deleted.
pechi123
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The blockchains topped before BTC topped, that puts a hole in that theory
delaney2
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@pechi123, it does not put a complete hole. If you check the correlation between MARA and BTC you will see that MARA mirros BTC direction - I do believe what caused the stock to drop BEFORE BTC topped was Biden's new Treasure Secretary announcing last Tuesday - Feb16th 2021 - :::: "Suggested curtailing the use of cryptos, which she said are prone to be used for malfeasance." and she quoted:: "And I think we really need to examine ways in which we can curtail their use and make sure that money laundering doesn't occur through those channels," Yellen said.
So as we all know, stocks are more sensitive to news than coins, so I believe that is what topped the stock before BTC, and now that BTC is retracing, the stocks are continuing to decline.