trevor4312

Fundamental Trade Short

Short
NASDAQ:MAT   Mattel, Inc.
After a spike in Early February it soon...ate up almost all of its gain the same day after a cut in earnings(Circled in black). Now why am I short? Well Let's take a look at demand for what Mattel sells. Toys, Board games, and dolls(famously Barbie). The plummet was due to a MASSIVE cut in earnings and terrible guidance for 2019 to be FLAT. Mattel blames Toys R Us' bankruptcy because it sells much of their toys (Which can be seen on the date of their official bankruptcy June 29 18 which marked the last recent high.) You'd think with places that Toys r Us went hand and hand with would also go out of business.... except they are. Game stop has partnered with Toys R Us several times and has performed miserly because people don't buy discs anymore they buy Downloads. Similarly, kids don't play board games much anymore they can play on gadgets or nobody wants to. The demand for board games has switched to a niche area for adults (i.e cards against humanity, Jackass etc...). However Mattel only sells traditional board games, particularly ones that people ignore more often unlike Hasbro(who have diversified their assets and... own monopoly). The demand is shrinking, and hence the price for Mattel is shrinking.

The only way i can see this turning around for mattel is if they manage to switch to a different market approach(introduce a revolutionary different approach never seen and that is a pipe dream at best). Anything is Possible.
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