For the 3rd time, Oil has tested this long term upper trend and failed on the 3rd test. Notice how last weeks candle closed solidly and through the lower band? (The white moving averages that trail under and over the candles) That is confirmation for me for lower prices. Also, our trix is now red again on the weekly and continues to stay red on the monthly.
I feel that we're headed to that $65 level I have marked out in the red box. There is a monthly 1.27 fib level at $66.92 which correlates to market structure/old support and the trend that started back in August of 2021. So, we have a ton of confluence in that area.
Remember that breaks tend to happen between 4-7 tests of an area so it only being the 3rd test of the lower trend that runs through the green zone, I'm comfortable to start scaling into $66 and under futures orders. Which lands right in the middle of the green zone.
Oil is growing increasingly bearish in the short term. However, the U.S. administration will seek to refill SPR near the lower end of $70, probably providing an excellent trading opportunity (for a long trade) down the road. I expect the oil price to stay within the wide range for a while longer due to that. Thank you kindly for your idea.
allout06
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@Tradersweekly, You're probably right, but hopefully we end up selling off and going into structure. I feel more comfortable buying down there than I do right now. I'll probably pass on a buy here even if it decides to rally without me.
Coming back to this, we hit $65.65 on futures and I bought in at $66.55. Target is a test of $70. I got your alert on USO @GarethSolowayOfficial. Good call. great minds? lol
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