jangseohee

Don't Cry For Me, Argentina

INDEX:MERV   Argentina Merval Index
348 15 6
2 years ago
90 degree uptrend line, marvelous!
I thought this country is still default right?


P.S. Dear Argentinian trader out there, i do not mean to offend, just ridicule by the parabolic ballistic price movement
a year ago
Comment:
snapshot
adxrsi
2 years ago
Non taken.

PS: You're envious of our little market rally, aren't you? ;)
+2 Reply
jangseohee adxrsi
2 years ago
Buenos Dias Amigo, yes dead envious i want to migrate to Buenos Aires! ;-)
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
Haha...come, we got choripanes and milanesas napolitanas at least.

On a more serious note, I've done some analysis on the daily and could find specific targets that were met in time for this decline, so I think it's more or less making sense.

Most of the price fluctuations in the local market are super manipulated though, and depend on the unofficial USDARS rates. (capital leak is of major importance...big players buy stock/bonds, sell in the US for dollars and get the cash back to then sell for the unofficial USD rate, and make back the spread which is around 7-8% in general)

Official usdars rates are 100% manipulated, and show a ballistic uptrend like this but worse. ARS weakness, naturally.
+1 Reply
jangseohee IvanLabrie
2 years ago
True, only with manipulation we will get to see ballistic movement
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IvanLabrie PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
You can slap some crucial fundamental related dates on these and they start coming to life.
I would never trade these instruments honestly...
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Forex, the most cutthroat of the cutthroat markets out there makes more sense than any argentinian chart :p
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jangseohee IvanLabrie
2 years ago
LOL, well the cutthroat market has almost 5.3 trillions transacted daily Amigo
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IvanLabrie PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
Yeah, but we get to see half the story...interbank being the real deal.
Reply
jangseohee IvanLabrie
2 years ago
well, in this situation i will only short for market top!
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
You can study the correlation between the bonds denominated in usd, political decisions regarding the dollar and what the unofficial dollar rate looks like and then trade some of these markets but technical analysis might not work 100% of the time.
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jangseohee IvanLabrie
2 years ago
I know, so as Fundamental analysis
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IvanLabrie PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
More like account conservation techniques if you trade in the local market xD
Low vol/liquidity, uncertainty with local currency and political events, huge inflation, two paralell dollar rates because the government started a protectionist measure of forbidding people to buy dollars or import goods, and a history of manipulating these rates by political measures make TA not so reliable on certain markets.
Merval looks more or less coherent though, a measured risk would do. :p
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jangseohee IvanLabrie
2 years ago
IC, thanks for sharing
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jangseohee IvanLabrie
2 years ago
but if statistically, TA work >60% of the time with big win > big loss, it will be profitable and accumulating slowly :-)
Still technical analysis can be closer/faster in issuing warning
+1 Reply
stupid, en un mercado de bajos volumenes una sobrerreaccion genero ese salto
no hay ninguna manipulacion, nunca podes comparar los volumenes de dow-jones con el merval, you're an ignorant
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