October 11 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, News
Description:
An analysis for the week ahead.
Points of Interest:
$3,500 High-Volume Concentration; Poor Structure; Balance Break; Stimulus; Earnings.
Technical:
Broad-market equity indices ended the week higher with S&P 500 retracing more than 50% of its September sell-off.
During Last Week’s Action: Alongside fiscal stimulus hopes, U.S. index products initiated past and built value above a major high-volume concentration.
The movement out balance provided initiative participants (i.e., those buying within or above prior value) with greater confidence to explore higher. In moving higher, however, the market left behind numerous poor structures, suggesting much of the activity was emotional.
The aforementioned short-term, momentum-driven activity is most attributable to the consensus there will be another round of stimulus. If talks were to fall apart or some other non-technical factor was introduced, there is good odds the market would endure a fast-moving correction of the poor structure.
Overall, the market has moved out of balance and is resolving to the upside. Outside of some exogenous event, it is likely that the market will continue exploring higher with the S&P 500 trading up to the high-volume area at the $3,500 strike where the concentration of open interest in options is heavy.
Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts.
Fundamental:
According to Evan Karson and Bridget Ryan of Moody’s Analytics, the economic recovery is facing two big downside risks.
“Two major downside risks loom over the road to recovery that could determine which path the labor market will follow: a spike in COVID-19 cases or a fiscal policy blunder. A double-dip recession will be unavoidable if widespread contagion slows business activity materially or sparks another round of nonessential business closures. The risk of a surge is increasing as the weather gets colder and people begin to socialize inside.” bit.ly/30V0LAy
Adding, the two suggest that a failure to deliver another round of direct stimulus payments or expand unemployment benefits would cut into household spending and damage consumer-driven industries hardest. The most significant gains, though, would occur if and when a vaccine is made available.
Key Events:
Monday: No events.
Tuesday: Core Inflation Rate, Inflation Rate.
Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, PPI MoM, Fed Clarida Speech, Fed Quarles Speech, Fed Kaplan Speech.
Thursday: Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change, EIA Distillate Stocks Change, Fed Quarles Speech, Fed Kashkari Speech.
Friday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Fed Williams Speech, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preliminary, Business Inventories, Michigan Inflation Expectations Preliminary, Foreign Bond Investment, Overall Net Capital Flows.
Recent News:
Hurricane Delta deals the greatest blow to U.S. offshore energy production in 15 years. reut.rs/3lyE8tM
Demand for steel is expected to grow to meet rising social and economic welfare needs. bit.ly/2SMX4J4
BlackRock Inc (NYSE: BLK) sees election risks playing out in asset classes and sectors. bit.ly/3jT3J03
Next administration to confront five policy challenges with wide-ranging credit impact. bit.ly/3nyyXf8
White House urges Congress for interim coronavirus relief as negotiations continue. reut.rs/3nIMPUq
The pandemic economy carved up a deep divide between the haves and have-nots. on.wsj.com/30VoSPY
A Biden win could mean stricter enforcement for the biggest four technology companies. reut.rs/2SM0aNm
Nasdaq Inc (NASDAQ: NDAQ) could transfer its data centers to Texas, from New Jersey. bit.ly/2SRvwC1
Amid recession, markets sense upturn despite pockets of profound depression-like misery. bit.ly/30V0LAy
International Business Machines Corp (NYSE: IBM) to split itself into two companies. reut.rs/30SPml6
Saudi Arabia is considering cancelling OPEC plans for an oil output hike early next year. on.wsj.com/2GDLg9B
Boeing Co (NYSE: BA) cut its rolling 20-year forecast for airplane demand on COVID-19. reut.rs/2Fl3ZWL
AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc (NYSE: AMC) plans to keep most theatres open. reut.rs/3nI9j7E
Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) has a chance at producing 500,000 cars this year, Musk said. reut.rs/33MvmlW
Key Metrics:
Sentiment: 34.7% Bullish, 26.3% Neutral, 39.0% Bearish as of 10/7/2020. bit.ly/330VhEp
Gamma Exposure: (Trending Higher) 8,490,294,012 as of 10/9/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Dark Pool Index: (Trending Neutral) 39.7% as of 10/9/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Product Snapshot:
S&P 500 (ES):
SPX
SPY
Gold (GC):
GLD
Crude Oil (CL):
USO
USL
DBO
Treasury Bonds (ZB):
TLT
Disclaimer:
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me.
In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
An analysis for the week ahead.
Points of Interest:
$3,500 High-Volume Concentration; Poor Structure; Balance Break; Stimulus; Earnings.
Technical:
Broad-market equity indices ended the week higher with S&P 500 retracing more than 50% of its September sell-off.
During Last Week’s Action: Alongside fiscal stimulus hopes, U.S. index products initiated past and built value above a major high-volume concentration.
The movement out balance provided initiative participants (i.e., those buying within or above prior value) with greater confidence to explore higher. In moving higher, however, the market left behind numerous poor structures, suggesting much of the activity was emotional.
The aforementioned short-term, momentum-driven activity is most attributable to the consensus there will be another round of stimulus. If talks were to fall apart or some other non-technical factor was introduced, there is good odds the market would endure a fast-moving correction of the poor structure.
Overall, the market has moved out of balance and is resolving to the upside. Outside of some exogenous event, it is likely that the market will continue exploring higher with the S&P 500 trading up to the high-volume area at the $3,500 strike where the concentration of open interest in options is heavy.
Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts.
Fundamental:
According to Evan Karson and Bridget Ryan of Moody’s Analytics, the economic recovery is facing two big downside risks.
“Two major downside risks loom over the road to recovery that could determine which path the labor market will follow: a spike in COVID-19 cases or a fiscal policy blunder. A double-dip recession will be unavoidable if widespread contagion slows business activity materially or sparks another round of nonessential business closures. The risk of a surge is increasing as the weather gets colder and people begin to socialize inside.” bit.ly/30V0LAy
Adding, the two suggest that a failure to deliver another round of direct stimulus payments or expand unemployment benefits would cut into household spending and damage consumer-driven industries hardest. The most significant gains, though, would occur if and when a vaccine is made available.
Key Events:
Monday: No events.
Tuesday: Core Inflation Rate, Inflation Rate.
Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, PPI MoM, Fed Clarida Speech, Fed Quarles Speech, Fed Kaplan Speech.
Thursday: Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change, EIA Distillate Stocks Change, Fed Quarles Speech, Fed Kashkari Speech.
Friday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Fed Williams Speech, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preliminary, Business Inventories, Michigan Inflation Expectations Preliminary, Foreign Bond Investment, Overall Net Capital Flows.
Recent News:
Hurricane Delta deals the greatest blow to U.S. offshore energy production in 15 years. reut.rs/3lyE8tM
Demand for steel is expected to grow to meet rising social and economic welfare needs. bit.ly/2SMX4J4
BlackRock Inc (NYSE: BLK) sees election risks playing out in asset classes and sectors. bit.ly/3jT3J03
Next administration to confront five policy challenges with wide-ranging credit impact. bit.ly/3nyyXf8
White House urges Congress for interim coronavirus relief as negotiations continue. reut.rs/3nIMPUq
The pandemic economy carved up a deep divide between the haves and have-nots. on.wsj.com/30VoSPY
A Biden win could mean stricter enforcement for the biggest four technology companies. reut.rs/2SM0aNm
Nasdaq Inc (NASDAQ: NDAQ) could transfer its data centers to Texas, from New Jersey. bit.ly/2SRvwC1
Amid recession, markets sense upturn despite pockets of profound depression-like misery. bit.ly/30V0LAy
International Business Machines Corp (NYSE: IBM) to split itself into two companies. reut.rs/30SPml6
Saudi Arabia is considering cancelling OPEC plans for an oil output hike early next year. on.wsj.com/2GDLg9B
Boeing Co (NYSE: BA) cut its rolling 20-year forecast for airplane demand on COVID-19. reut.rs/2Fl3ZWL
AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc (NYSE: AMC) plans to keep most theatres open. reut.rs/3nI9j7E
Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) has a chance at producing 500,000 cars this year, Musk said. reut.rs/33MvmlW
Key Metrics:
Sentiment: 34.7% Bullish, 26.3% Neutral, 39.0% Bearish as of 10/7/2020. bit.ly/330VhEp
Gamma Exposure: (Trending Higher) 8,490,294,012 as of 10/9/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Dark Pool Index: (Trending Neutral) 39.7% as of 10/9/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Product Snapshot:
S&P 500 (ES):
SPX
SPY
Gold (GC):
GLD
Crude Oil (CL):
USO
USL
DBO
Treasury Bonds (ZB):
TLT
Disclaimer:
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me.
In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
Comment:
In case the image is cut-off for you:
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve (myself especially), so if you see something wrong, speak up.
