November 22 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, News
Description:
An analysis for the week ahead.
Points of Interest:
$3,580 Balance-Area Boundary, $3,506.25 Excess Low.
Technical:
After an initiative upside drive on news that another COVID-19 coronavirus vaccine developed by Moderna Inc (NASDAQ: MRNA) was 94.5% effective, U.S. index futures pared gains as participants struggled to maintain higher prices, evidenced by the non-presence of committed buying and low-excess at the edges of balance.
Given that Friday’s session failed to negate Wednesday’s spike liquidation by moving back into the micro-composite high-volume node at $3,557, the fairest price to do business during the prior week’s balancing activity, initiative sellers remain in control. As a result, knowing that prior end-of-day spikes were the result of weak-handed, short-term buyers liquidating in panic, the selling moved prices away from value and didn’t attract increased participation, and Friday was a monthly options expiry, traders can carry forward the following framework.
If the auction remains in or below the prior selling activity, then initiative sellers remain in control and the liquidation could be the start of a new trend lower, confirmed by trade beyond the $3,506.25 excess low. Otherwise, there is the potential for a failed break-down in which participants rotate back over the $3,580 balance boundary.
Fundamental:
In a commentary, BlackRock discussed the staying power of growth stocks after the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic.
We believe this year brought a sort of forced adoption necessary for future business survival, a dynamic likely to continue for companies that want to be competitive in a post-COVID world. That means demand could continue to edge higher for providers of these products and services. One example: Many consumers swapped gym memberships for connected home fitness equipment. The initial demand spike may recede, but many of these consumers will be multi-year subscription payers and likely to become more firmly entrenched in an ecosystem of products offered by a certain company.
Simply put, BlackRock suggests trends supercharged during the pandemic have been in place for years, providing them staying power. The COVID-19 acceleration liquidated the market of those businesses not equipped to survive disruption, thereby allowing those that remain greater market share.
Key Events:
Monday: Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash, Fed Daly Speech, Fed Evans Speech.
Tuesday: House Price Index MoM, CB Consumer Confidence, Fed Bullard Speech, Fed Williams Speech, Fed Clarida Speech.
Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, Durable Good Orders MoM, GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est, Continuing Jobless Claims, Core PCE Prices QoQ 2 Est, Corporate Profits QoQ Prel, Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM, GDP Price Index QoQ 2nd Est, Goods Trade Balance Adv, Initial Jobless Claims, Jobless Claims 4-Week Average, PCE Prices QoQ 2 Est, Core PCE Price Index YoY, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final, PCE Price Index YoY, Core PCE Price Index MoM, Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Final, Michigan Inflation Expectations Final, New Home Sales MoM, PCE Price Index MoM, Personal Income MoM, Personal Spending MoM, EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change, EIA Distillate Stocks Change, FOMC Minutes.
Recent News:
The gap between vaccine hopes and pandemic reality poses market hazard. reut.rs/338pdzJ
Pfizer Inc (NYSE: PFE) files COVID-19 vaccine application to the U.S. FDA. reut.rs/36U4JvE
Fannie, Freddie regulator looks to end government control before Trump exits. reut.rs/2Kxi1qs
EM looks to 2021 as Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS) adds bullish calls. bloom.bg/3kYjxOO
The second lockdown weakened U.K.’s growth and fiscal outlook materially. bit.ly/335rtro
The EU digital chief, tech giants call on new rules rescheduled to December 2. reut.rs/3kU4DZZ
G20 leaders have pledged to fund the fair distribution of COVID-19 vaccines. reut.rs/2HnScYz
Recent FSB updates won’t change capital requirements for important banks. bit.ly/335rtro
New COVID-19 virus restrictions heighten downside risk for European banks. bit.ly/335rtro
Drop in associated gas production offers a lifeline for pure-play gas producers. bit.ly/335rtro
Technology startups are looking to raise more after the COVID-19 disruption. bit.ly/2KlNX0L
World Reimagined: Nasdaq on what the new economy looks like post-COVID. bit.ly/3pSY9Ov
Consumers are looking at new ways to get health care, buy cars, eat and work. on.wsj.com/2UPAXCH
How operating leverage may help to narrow yield spreads as COVID subsides. bit.ly/36Vtp7a
If Democrats win the runoffs for GA’s two Senate seats, expect larger stimulus. bit.ly/36Vtp7a
How a broader equity market rally would help enhance corporate credit quality. bit.ly/36Vtp7a
The Fed chief suggests it is too soon to put away its emergency recovery tools. bloom.bg/397HPns
Options markets show risks over the next twelve months reduced considerably. bit.ly/35URADj
The third-quarter bullish earnings cycle should not be dismissed by the market. bloom.bg/3fnyHMf
Key Metrics:
Sentiment: 44.4% Bullish, 29.3% Neutral, 26.4% Bearish as of 11/18/2020. bit.ly/330VhEp
Gamma Exposure: (Trending Neutral) 2,325,158,176 as of 11/13/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Dark Pool Index: (Trending Neutral) 43.8% as of 11/20/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Disclaimer:
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me.
In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
An analysis for the week ahead.
Points of Interest:
$3,580 Balance-Area Boundary, $3,506.25 Excess Low.
Technical:
After an initiative upside drive on news that another COVID-19 coronavirus vaccine developed by Moderna Inc (NASDAQ: MRNA) was 94.5% effective, U.S. index futures pared gains as participants struggled to maintain higher prices, evidenced by the non-presence of committed buying and low-excess at the edges of balance.
Given that Friday’s session failed to negate Wednesday’s spike liquidation by moving back into the micro-composite high-volume node at $3,557, the fairest price to do business during the prior week’s balancing activity, initiative sellers remain in control. As a result, knowing that prior end-of-day spikes were the result of weak-handed, short-term buyers liquidating in panic, the selling moved prices away from value and didn’t attract increased participation, and Friday was a monthly options expiry, traders can carry forward the following framework.
If the auction remains in or below the prior selling activity, then initiative sellers remain in control and the liquidation could be the start of a new trend lower, confirmed by trade beyond the $3,506.25 excess low. Otherwise, there is the potential for a failed break-down in which participants rotate back over the $3,580 balance boundary.
Fundamental:
In a commentary, BlackRock discussed the staying power of growth stocks after the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic.
We believe this year brought a sort of forced adoption necessary for future business survival, a dynamic likely to continue for companies that want to be competitive in a post-COVID world. That means demand could continue to edge higher for providers of these products and services. One example: Many consumers swapped gym memberships for connected home fitness equipment. The initial demand spike may recede, but many of these consumers will be multi-year subscription payers and likely to become more firmly entrenched in an ecosystem of products offered by a certain company.
Simply put, BlackRock suggests trends supercharged during the pandemic have been in place for years, providing them staying power. The COVID-19 acceleration liquidated the market of those businesses not equipped to survive disruption, thereby allowing those that remain greater market share.
Key Events:
Monday: Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash, Fed Daly Speech, Fed Evans Speech.
Tuesday: House Price Index MoM, CB Consumer Confidence, Fed Bullard Speech, Fed Williams Speech, Fed Clarida Speech.
Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, Durable Good Orders MoM, GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est, Continuing Jobless Claims, Core PCE Prices QoQ 2 Est, Corporate Profits QoQ Prel, Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM, GDP Price Index QoQ 2nd Est, Goods Trade Balance Adv, Initial Jobless Claims, Jobless Claims 4-Week Average, PCE Prices QoQ 2 Est, Core PCE Price Index YoY, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final, PCE Price Index YoY, Core PCE Price Index MoM, Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Final, Michigan Inflation Expectations Final, New Home Sales MoM, PCE Price Index MoM, Personal Income MoM, Personal Spending MoM, EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change, EIA Distillate Stocks Change, FOMC Minutes.
Recent News:
The gap between vaccine hopes and pandemic reality poses market hazard. reut.rs/338pdzJ
Pfizer Inc (NYSE: PFE) files COVID-19 vaccine application to the U.S. FDA. reut.rs/36U4JvE
Fannie, Freddie regulator looks to end government control before Trump exits. reut.rs/2Kxi1qs
EM looks to 2021 as Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS) adds bullish calls. bloom.bg/3kYjxOO
The second lockdown weakened U.K.’s growth and fiscal outlook materially. bit.ly/335rtro
The EU digital chief, tech giants call on new rules rescheduled to December 2. reut.rs/3kU4DZZ
G20 leaders have pledged to fund the fair distribution of COVID-19 vaccines. reut.rs/2HnScYz
Recent FSB updates won’t change capital requirements for important banks. bit.ly/335rtro
New COVID-19 virus restrictions heighten downside risk for European banks. bit.ly/335rtro
Drop in associated gas production offers a lifeline for pure-play gas producers. bit.ly/335rtro
Technology startups are looking to raise more after the COVID-19 disruption. bit.ly/2KlNX0L
World Reimagined: Nasdaq on what the new economy looks like post-COVID. bit.ly/3pSY9Ov
Consumers are looking at new ways to get health care, buy cars, eat and work. on.wsj.com/2UPAXCH
How operating leverage may help to narrow yield spreads as COVID subsides. bit.ly/36Vtp7a
If Democrats win the runoffs for GA’s two Senate seats, expect larger stimulus. bit.ly/36Vtp7a
How a broader equity market rally would help enhance corporate credit quality. bit.ly/36Vtp7a
The Fed chief suggests it is too soon to put away its emergency recovery tools. bloom.bg/397HPns
Options markets show risks over the next twelve months reduced considerably. bit.ly/35URADj
The third-quarter bullish earnings cycle should not be dismissed by the market. bloom.bg/3fnyHMf
Key Metrics:
Sentiment: 44.4% Bullish, 29.3% Neutral, 26.4% Bearish as of 11/18/2020. bit.ly/330VhEp
Gamma Exposure: (Trending Neutral) 2,325,158,176 as of 11/13/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Dark Pool Index: (Trending Neutral) 43.8% as of 11/20/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Disclaimer:
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me.
In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve (myself especially), so if you see something wrong, speak up.
