Forgive me for using MES, but it’s easier because I don’t have to clear any existing markup. I’ve been watching this H&S pattern form for a while now and looks very clean on the 8 hour chart here. The measured move for the breakdown takes us to 5000. I expect that we retest the neckline and clean up the imbalances (FVGs) in the process before we ultimately get rejected and move towards 5,000 over the next couple of weeks. It just so happens that the .618 fib lines up exactly with the neck line if you pull the fib from the last swing high to the current swing low on the 8 hour. Weekly momentum also suggests we go lower and overall economic indicators seem to suggest a bigger correction is coming. This very well could be the start of a bigger correction, but my immediate targets will be a retest of the neckline and a measured move down to 5000.
Well, we unfortunately didn't get the retest of the neckline, but we can blame the macro potential war situation between Iran and Israel for that... Although, we did close the week right at my H&S target of 5000! Good chance we consolidate here or get a bounce to clean up some of the inefficiencies above, but I also won't be surprised if we get some more macro events in the short term that drive the price action from here. I will see how price action develops on Monday's NY open to decide how to play it.
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