It's the last week of the year and it looks like the market will be making a move here soon.
Price is in an uptrend but consolidating inside a wedge pattern. This means price is building energy and ready to make a move to the upside or downside. Since it's difficult to predict, I would wait on the sideline until confirmation.
The trend is your friend until the very end, so I will not be shorting unless there is a major technical breakdown and trade setup 2 occurs.
Otherwise I think the trade setups described are easy to read and understand.
Do not play the breakouts, wait for the retrace and resumption. My experience is that 90% or more of breakouts result in a retrace or failed breakout. Wait for the confirmation.
on smaller time frames such as 10 minute it seems to have tested the breakout of 3703. Would you count that or do you strictly only take the trade on retest during a bigger time frame?
XYZ-Trader-
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@mjmassens, I generally wait to see a higher timeframe candle (i.e. 8 hour) go for the retest.
After today's price action, I'm looking for a retest and bounce between 3700 and 3725.
If it doesn't come back to this area, then I missed this breakout. My experience is that 90% or more of breakouts result in a retrace. 3700 was a very key price area for several weeks. I would be surprised if the New York session allows the futures market to just jump over 3700 via gap up without ever repaying this area a visit.
The retest might happen tomorrow, next week or next month. Nobody ever knows, but I suspect we're not done seeing 3700. If we are, then it's on to find the next trade. I'm hopeful for a retest.