Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Doubtful this is part of a bull trend on the 4h or daily chart. Most likely we are still inside the same trading range since 2025-09 but this is still printing higher lows on the weekly chart. So unless we go below 24890, bulls are somewhat favored but I would not buy 25670 blindly. Past 2 days were too bearish and we closed at the lows.
current market cycle: trading range since November - could still be a weak bull trend but as of now it’s likely 50/50
key levels for next week: 25500 - 27000
bull case: Do or die level is 25500. Bulls just have to keep it above or we can go down to 25000. Same reasoning as in dax. We could have seen the lows on Friday and melt from here but given the bearish close on nq, I have to be neutral and wait. Technically it’s still a higher low and bears are just not able to leave bigger gaps open. We have one from 26115 down to 26000 but that’s just 115 points. Bulls would likely only give up more if we would see a sell spike and staying at the lows. Bulls can also still argue the move from 25026 up to 26349 was W1 and we are in W2, that is somewhat a more bullish perspective than I have drawn. We retraced 50% of that W1 and on the daily tf we have closed Thu + Fr above or at that 50% price 25680.
Invalidation is most like below 25500. If we go below, we might as well drop down to 25300 or lower and be part of a bigger triangle
bear case: Bears completely stepped aside until Wednesday and then had 2 reasonably strong days on Thu + Fr. Now what? They turned the market neutral again, given that we trade almost exactly at the 50% retracement. Here both sides have arguments to go higher or lower. If the bears can put the market below 25500 I highly doubt many bulls will fight it until 25300 or even 25000. It would also increase the argument for the failed breakout above the trading range and the range goes to 24887 or even to the November lows 24153 but I think that’s way too much to expect. Bears need the daily close below 25500 for confirmation.
Invalidation is above 25950
short term: Neutral between 25500 and 25800. Above 25800 I think we try 25900 and then maybe get the breakout above. Below 25500 I think bears are favored and we could test down to 25300 or lower.
medium-long term - Update from 2026-02-01: Neutral for now. Can go both ways but I think bulls are still slightly favored.
comment: Doubtful this is part of a bull trend on the 4h or daily chart. Most likely we are still inside the same trading range since 2025-09 but this is still printing higher lows on the weekly chart. So unless we go below 24890, bulls are somewhat favored but I would not buy 25670 blindly. Past 2 days were too bearish and we closed at the lows.
current market cycle: trading range since November - could still be a weak bull trend but as of now it’s likely 50/50
key levels for next week: 25500 - 27000
bull case: Do or die level is 25500. Bulls just have to keep it above or we can go down to 25000. Same reasoning as in dax. We could have seen the lows on Friday and melt from here but given the bearish close on nq, I have to be neutral and wait. Technically it’s still a higher low and bears are just not able to leave bigger gaps open. We have one from 26115 down to 26000 but that’s just 115 points. Bulls would likely only give up more if we would see a sell spike and staying at the lows. Bulls can also still argue the move from 25026 up to 26349 was W1 and we are in W2, that is somewhat a more bullish perspective than I have drawn. We retraced 50% of that W1 and on the daily tf we have closed Thu + Fr above or at that 50% price 25680.
Invalidation is most like below 25500. If we go below, we might as well drop down to 25300 or lower and be part of a bigger triangle
bear case: Bears completely stepped aside until Wednesday and then had 2 reasonably strong days on Thu + Fr. Now what? They turned the market neutral again, given that we trade almost exactly at the 50% retracement. Here both sides have arguments to go higher or lower. If the bears can put the market below 25500 I highly doubt many bulls will fight it until 25300 or even 25000. It would also increase the argument for the failed breakout above the trading range and the range goes to 24887 or even to the November lows 24153 but I think that’s way too much to expect. Bears need the daily close below 25500 for confirmation.
Invalidation is above 25950
short term: Neutral between 25500 and 25800. Above 25800 I think we try 25900 and then maybe get the breakout above. Below 25500 I think bears are favored and we could test down to 25300 or lower.
medium-long term - Update from 2026-02-01: Neutral for now. Can go both ways but I think bulls are still slightly favored.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.