quantitativetendies

MOS: Bullish Breakout

Long
NYSE:MOS   Mosaic Company (The)
Mosaic produces fertilizer which is heavily affected by the Ukraine/Russia war. Potash prices are priced to mean revert in the long term (by analysts) but I thing it will be higher for longer under this regime and we need this to produce crop and people need to eat. (Suggesting some inelasticity in the good).

Technical set up looks like there was a shorter (strong on good volume ) re-accumulation last 2 weeks along with a bullish insider bar formation on the upward breakout (last 2 days). Bottom range of the price target $85 based on the accumulation from 17' to 21'.
Trade active: This looks like backing up action before a completed re-accumuluation - however conviction is fading here. Structurally this seems still looks like a good trade to pursue. Will be looking to add more capital after the broad market sell off. A soft stop at 50 is necessary to see if fundamentals/technical have changed.
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