MPC's last 3 signals show more upside potential than downside risk from the first time it gets overbought after a period of being strongly oversold. This "relief rally" or "Phoenix rising from the ashes" rally is an interesting setup. Emerging momentum is an interesting way to get on board and ride a rising tide. Clearly the best signal was back in October last year, but I like the odds here, especially as MPC has lagged the rally in the other oil stocks. Granted MPC is a refiner/marketer of gasoline, but the oil stocks tend to stick together and MPC has lagged.
SIGNAL = CCI reached +100 after being under -100 = SIGNAL TO JUMP ON BOARD
Tim MPC 90.05 last +0.44 6/23/2014 10:29AM EST
Comments
A-shot
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Thanx Tim. Keeping an eye on it from the previous chart :) But you did not make any estimation on the possible upside/downsire or r/atr?
timwest
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Ouch. Refiners got the hammer from new oil export laws... I never know.
timwest
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By Arie Shapira
June 25 (Bloomberg) -- Valero drops 4.2%, HollyFrontier
-3.7%, Marathon Petroleum -3.6% after U.S. Commerce Dept opened
door to more U.S. oil exports as long as crude is lightly
processed.
* ICE Brent/WTI spread narrows to 7.25/BBL vs yday ~$8.50
* BofA: “Incremental” negative for refiners; timing earlier
than anticipated, likely headwind to expectations that
regional crude differentials on Gulf Coast “would only go
one way”
* Howard Weil: LLS/Brent spread may drop to ~2/BBL assuming
lifting of export ban, no change to Jones Act; would likely
lower Howard Weil’s WTI/Brent spread est. to ~$6 from $9,
VLO FY EPS ests to ~$4-shr from ~$6
* Tudor Pickering: Rule to allow export of lightly-distilled
condensate negative for domestic refiners; ALJ, DK, WNR, HFC
most exposed to light crudes
* Citi: Doesn’t expect “meaningful” impact on expectations
for refining profitability; coastal refiners to continue to
have advantage from improving logistics, reiterates buy on
VLO
* Wolfe Research: In note not related to export news, Wolfe
cuts VLO 2Q EPS est. to $1.36 vs prior est. $2.01, Street
eset. $1.81; says MPC ests already below Street ests
ProSignals
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very bad idea tim ):
DavideG
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Interesting, it's tanking this morning...know why? What's your strategy when stocks open significantly lower?
A-shot
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new regulations in US. Diving hard
timwest
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Read the news link above - Obama let the US start exporting oil for the first time in 40 years. Refiners margins are going to get killed as supply goes overseas where the margins are higher.
A-shot
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I take it as a Sell signal at any best moment actually. Nothing to catch here for some time
timwest
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I check what the analysts are saying and assess. I check to see if this gap-down is an opportunity or an overreaction. I don't keep stop orders sitting in the market. These bad situations happen from time to time. Fortunately, I expect them to happen so I am not frozen.