nodiggity
Long

Time to buy MPC? OVX might be a reason why.

NYSE:MPC   MARATHON PETE CORP
This is a simple overlay of MPC             and INDEX:OVX             .

The chart is self-explanatory. I'm not saying these two will cross, but so long as they converge, it is a good sign to be long MPC             . The stock itself is oversold. It has lost half it's market cap since early Dec. Since free-falling, it has found a nice bottom at $29.

Buying MPC             in the low $30s and holding until April could bring us closer to the $55-70 valuation. Selling at $50 is more in line at the lower end of analysts revised expectations.

If INDEX:OVX             stabilizes, and INDEX:SPX             decides to capitulate, overlay MPC             with the S&P             , and you'll find that this stock has historically bucked the market.

Disclosure: I am long MPC             .

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nodiggity
9 months ago
Everything I posted earlier has rung true today. Energy stocks are benefiting today from a better than expected EIA inventory report. In particular, MPC continues to rise off its $29 February 2016 lows going back to 2012. There is a slight uptick in the OVX, but should be noted that the OVX is trading at levels slightly lower than in March 2009.

I know the market dynamics are different now than before the oil crash, but MPC this is another instance in a history of many instances where the stock bucks the S&P.

Disclosure: I am still long MPC.
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nodiggity
9 months ago
I want to add to the "oversold refiners" narrative. Look at price action across the energy sector. HFC and MPC are clear playing into that. See you at the close!
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