MRNA: The Moment We Have Been Waiting For

Jan 20

MRNA has been on a strong run lately. The stock has pushed up into the low 40s after spending a lot of time stuck in the 20s and 30s, and it is now trading near a new one‑year high with price riding above the main moving averages. This move comes after the company raised its 2025 revenue forecast and gave more clarity on 2026, saying it expects growth as new products like its flu and combo flu‑COVID shots move toward approvals. On top of that, Moderna continues to highlight a growing pipeline in vaccines and cancer, which gives investors more than just COVID to focus on. All of this has pulled in fresh buyers and led to a sharp 10–15% rally in just a few weeks.
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Because of this news, the outlook for Moderna is more bullish than it has been in a while. The company now has better revenue visibility for the next few years, with management guiding to higher 2025 sales and talking about the path to profitability as the pipeline matures. Instead of one big COVID story, they now have multiple different products: seasonal flu, combo vaccines, RSV revaccination and several oncology readouts in 2026. The balance sheet also looks solid, with billions in cash that can support ongoing R&D. When you put this together with the recent price breakout and strong buying volume, it supports the idea that the market is starting to re‑rate the stock higher.
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On the chart, my approach is pretty simple: I trade the trend and use Fibonacci retracements to find my levels. After Moderna bottomed out in late 2025, it started printing higher lows and higher highs on the daily chart; the most recent push gave me a clear impulse leg from the last swing low up to the current high around 42–43, which I marked as a new higher high. From there, I pulled a Fib from that swing low to the swing high. I focus on the 0.5–0.618 “golden zone,” because in a healthy uptrend that is where price often pulls back before continuing higher. On this move, that zone lines up around 35, so I’ve marked that area as my main buy zone. It also matches the recent breakout area where old resistance could turn into support, which adds confidence to that level.

Above current price, my first target (TP1) is around 54. That level comes from a Fib extension of the current leg and also lines up with an old supply area where price stalled before. It’s a logical place for short‑term traders to take profit if the trend continues. My second target (TP2) is up near 61, which is a higher extension as well as a major shelf from the last big downtrend. If price can reach that zone, it would still be far below the pandemic highs but would mark a strong medium‑term recovery. Finally, I have a deeper “discount zone” around 24. This area matches a larger retracement of the entire move and sits close to the recent 52‑week low where buyers stepped in before the current rally. If price ever came back there while the fundamental story stayed intact, I’d see it as a high‑value area rather than a reason to give up on the bullish idea.
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So in short, I'm bullish. Fundamentals and guidance are improving, the pipeline is getting closer to real commercial products, and the chart has flipped into an uptrend. My plan is to avoid chasing at the highs, wait for a pullback into the 35 buy zone that lines up with my Fib retracement, and then look to ride the move toward 54 and possibly 61 as long as the uptrend structure holds.

Note: This is my personal opinion and analysis, not financial advice. Always do your own research and due diligence before entering any trade. Happy trading everyone!

Jan 23

Trade active

First TP has just been reached! Today was a perfect rejection off this price. The buy zone has also increased and now the target would be $46 - $48. Next price target of $61! Happy trading everyone!