MRVL hit the strong resistance zone today. Is it start of a large decline? Lets follow.
It seems that MRVL has completed a 5 segment up going wave ( shown on the chart ) . This up going wave can be wave 5 of a larger cycle Elliott wave itself which if true, suggest a decline down to 38-33 USD zone corresponding to 0.5 and 0.618 Retracements of larger cycle completed wave. A correction for a completed wave shown on the chart is also possible for now. We can update the idea later.
It is worth to note that general trend of MRVL is up which means this possible upcoming decline is just a correction and we will have some up going waves after completion of correction ( I think there will be at least two more up going waves before big short).
This mentioned decline is inevitable but a trade above 62.71 makes this analysis invalid for a short time . It still may go higher. Therefore, it is wise to set our protective buy stop one tick above 62.71.
Stochastic indicator has made a bearish reversal in daily time frame while it is overbought in weekly and monthly which propose that 62.71 high may remain the last high for several weeks.
Our R/R is extremly high . I am short myself below 61.78 ( Just 1 USD per share at risk).
We trade objectively and set our protective buy stop when we go short. Right my friends?
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I moved my protective buy stop to 61USD.
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Stopped out with small profit. It seems to be on the way to make a new ATH. We always trade objectively.
So, I trimmed some profits when I hit my $63.88 price target... Thinking about buying back some today or next week with a $60 stop loss limit on the shares. I might wait till next week to see if $60 level looks like noteworthy support... Thoughts anyone? Happy trading, Lions!
SaeedSajedi
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@Gy65Dg80, Happy to see you made profit. Momentum is bearish. Being cautious seems reasonable.
Gy65Dg80
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Thanks.. It's interesting to see how much higher the volume has been on selling than buying, since January... I'm trying to trim some winners that might be looking tired and ready to pull back, and I own too much SemiCon exposure anyway. I think this one may run a little higher until they report earnings in a few day, but there looks to be 2to1 more risk to the downside than to the upside. I think I may trim 10-20% now, put a limit sell for 10-20% more (at a price 10% above current share price), and put in a stop limit sell for 10% more (at price 8% below current share price). Then when we get closer to earnings, I might reevaluate if it's worth buying back 10% of the position with a limit buy order, or whether I wanna put the money to work in a diff company or sector. Happy trading y'all
SaeedSajedi
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@Gy65Dg80, What you mentioned is a probable scenario. I opened my short position just 1 USD below the last high and recovered some of my position with small profit securing my no loss trade I have my protective buy stop one tick above the last high so I agree that it may not go as I predicted. I also showed the condition that makes this analysis invalid on the chart. Thanks for your informative comment and sharing idea.
Gy65Dg80
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@SaeedSajedi, yeah I think it goes down after earnings, whatever it does up until then... so short/hedging/protecting gains is a good call overall if it's just like someone's 4th fave Semi stock. I waited a day too long to put some stop losses on SWIR. It's a good time to consolidate portflolios more towards a shorter list of high conviction plays. So thanks for the charting and post.