It was almost a month (January 27, see chart below) when we last gave a Sell Signal on Microsoft (MSFT) with the price trading at $481.26 on a $410 Target:
Our $410 Target got hit almost instantly on the following 1W candle, something we expected to take months. So with this sheer selling aggression at hand, how low can Microsoft drop under these macro conditions?
Well in technical terms that depends upon the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line). That is the natural long-term multi-year Support of the market that got tested and started the Bullish Legs following the November 2022 and April 2025 Lows. In fact it has been holding since December 2011, which was the last time it traded below it.
As a result, if we get a monthly candle close below the 1M MA50, the market has good chances to seek the next level of Support, the 1M MA100 (green trend-line). Given that Microsoft has been trading within a Channel Up since the 2008 U.S. Housing Crisis, a potential 1M MA100 test would be within the 0.618 - 0.786 Fibonacci retracement levels and would be the biggest correction since that crisis.
In our opinion that contact could be made at $300. Observe also how similar in aggression the current 1M RSI trend is to both 2022 and 2008 corrections. In fact it is currently testing the 44.00 Support, which has been intact since June 2010. Below it the next Support level is the RSI's oversold limit at 30.00, undoubtedly a massive generational buy opportunity.
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Our $410 Target got hit almost instantly on the following 1W candle, something we expected to take months. So with this sheer selling aggression at hand, how low can Microsoft drop under these macro conditions?
Well in technical terms that depends upon the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line). That is the natural long-term multi-year Support of the market that got tested and started the Bullish Legs following the November 2022 and April 2025 Lows. In fact it has been holding since December 2011, which was the last time it traded below it.
As a result, if we get a monthly candle close below the 1M MA50, the market has good chances to seek the next level of Support, the 1M MA100 (green trend-line). Given that Microsoft has been trading within a Channel Up since the 2008 U.S. Housing Crisis, a potential 1M MA100 test would be within the 0.618 - 0.786 Fibonacci retracement levels and would be the biggest correction since that crisis.
In our opinion that contact could be made at $300. Observe also how similar in aggression the current 1M RSI trend is to both 2022 and 2008 corrections. In fact it is currently testing the 44.00 Support, which has been intact since June 2010. Below it the next Support level is the RSI's oversold limit at 30.00, undoubtedly a massive generational buy opportunity.
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** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
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Trade Forex on TradingView (zero commissions)👉 go.tradenation.com/visit/?bta=37104&brand=tradenation
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Funded trading -20% off👉 hyrotrader.com/?coupon=tradingshot
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.