Maybe that is too extreme, but it hopefully caught your attention: I put a short sale recommendation last summer and MSFT and it had an excellent down-move from that publication. Now MSFT has made another earnings announcement and it has made a new high, it's time to revisit and see what valuation looks like. Well, the valuation is a problem.
The PSR or Price-to-Sales Ratio. The value of the company as a multiple of the underlying revenues of the firm is up to and above the peak of 4.77 times seen at the 2010 high. And back then MSFT had 25%+ and rising margins and today they have 13.5% and declining margins. That is a huge difference. Revenues are experiencing slower growth these days, far from the strong growth MSFT saw through the 1980's-1990's and 2000's.
I believe there is a time when you have to just vote with your feet and walk away from investments. Timing the ultimate demise (50% decline and no recovery) is a whole different business and one which I love to be part of and attempt to help you get in and get out investments at the right time to experience the least amount of stress, dissonance, doubt, or financial loss while at the same time getting the maximum gain possible given the risk taken.
MSFT 54.17 last, November 9th Monday's close.
I rate MSFT a "SELL" - "EXIT" - "UNDERPERFORM" the market going forward. If it doesn't underperform, the market must know something I don't or the people that buy MSFT just have more money than sense at this level. Ok, that sounds harsh. But, maybe I'll do even more research and see what I can find to prove myself wrong. Feel free to add your fundamental insights.
(Fundamental replies so far from users: Read the MSFT annual report to see their migration to the cloud from the desktop. Microsoft has been playing catch-up to Google-Docs.)
Tim
8:37AM - I published this Monday morning Nov 9th before the open for the KEY HIDDEN LEVELS CHAT ROOM and for TWITTER followers of @87spider, but made it "private" accidentally. I'm sharing it with the overall TradingView community now.
Comment
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SO FAR - SO GOOD. There is a time to sell, and a time to buy for every stock in every season and this still is the time to sell.
I am surprised MSFT has not tanked much more, Tim's analysis seems to be spot on, the company is not doing great however this as not reflected in the share price. I can only assume that the market is not yet, rational.
timwest
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Thanks Herman.
IvanLabrie
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Tim would you short MSFT around this zone?
G13Man
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MSFT is over rated , of the worlds fastest supercomputers 450 + of the 500 are running Linux ! The desk top is being shifted to mobile ,Android or Apple
The cloud is getting commercialized and a lot of the companies getting into this field are not making high margins
Computer programs for the cloud have not earned as much as expected
good write up tim +1
Plus i see it @ the top of its 5 yr trend just a generic chart
SpreadEagle71
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Totally Agree. I did some of my own research and came up up with the same conclusion.
Kimlee
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MSFT is moving up and holding steady...do you think it is the beginning of an uptrend ?
G13Man
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it can continue to go up , following the upper up trend
after all , it has broken its down trend
however the test is coming up @ the 58 to 60 dollar resistance area !