Today I decided to take a look at a few big stocks in order to see where we are in terms of wave completion and understand if a reversal of S&P is approaching. What took my attention is MSFT , which was approaching its 49.51 resistance.
No big deal i guess, unless this level is precisely the level of it's 88.6 retracement of the downward movement we had for this stock in 2000-2008. It is very likely that what we are dealing with here is a flat correction:
- Wave A: from 53.97 to 14.87 in 2000-2008
- Wave B: from 14.87 to 49.51 in 2009-2015
The wave structure confirms this hypothesis. What's left then is an impulsive Wave C (which is usually large enough to overshoot the bottom), which will take us from 49.51 to below 14.87 in the next couple of years. MSFT is no small fish. If it goes down to those levels it will be accompanied by the whole market.
According to EW analysis it looks like we are completing the last wave 5 of the last upward movement in the upward wave B, and the last element of it is an , of which just the half-wave is left of wave 5. This is not a red alarm signal to me. This is a flashing red signal. I may be wrong of course, but one thing I believe is valid: being long today on any of the stock is definitely a mistake!
If my analysis is correct, the market decline (crash?) is going to happen not in a matter of weeks, not even days. I think we will hit the top today. Friday, May 15th, 2015.