Microsoft | Fundamental Analysis | SHORT

On Tuesday, Microsoft announced its intention to acquire video game giant Activision Blizzard in a deal worth $75 billion, or $68.7 billion based on Activision's net cash position. That corresponds to a price of $95 a share, up from Activision's share price of $65 last Friday, but still below Activision's 52-week high of $104.53.

If the deal passes antitrust scrutiny, it could be a clever move. In fact, the deal is reminiscent of Warren Buffett's approach to value investing at his Berkshire Hathaway conglomerate. Given Buffett's close friendship with former Microsoft chairman Bill Gates, it is not surprising that Microsoft is making reasonable acquisitions at reasonable prices during its mature growth phase.

Activision Blizzard has a leading portfolio of video game franchises, including Call of Duty, Candy Crush, Overwatch, and many others. With such a high market capitalization, it is one of the world's largest pure-play video game developers, ranking fifth in total game revenue worldwide.

Recently, however, the company found itself "on the operating table," so to speak. Last summer, California regulators filed a lawsuit against Activision, accusing it of widespread sexual harassment and gender pay inequality. In November, about a fifth of Activision's employees signed a petition urging CEO Bobby Kotick, who has led the company for more than 30 years, to leave. Although the company has taken various steps to correct apparent misconduct, including firing or disciplining more than 80 employees and altering some internal rules, Activision stock has not recovered and is down more than 35 percent from its February 2021 highs.

Although Microsoft is paying a substantial premium to last week's market price, the valuation is about 25 times this year's average earnings estimate of $3.80. If you pay attention to Activision's net cash position, the valuation drops to about 23. That's a pretty reasonable price for Activision's "drama-free," given the strength of its franchises and the way it has traded in the past.

Even if Microsoft gets a reasonable price for a separate Activision, Activision could be even more profitable in Microsoft's hands than as an independent company.

Given the turmoil in Activision's management, The Wall Street Journal reported that Kotick is likely to leave his post after the deal closes. Thus, new leadership and a culture change at Activision itself could help bring key talent and reinvigorate the business after the current employee crisis.

And just as streaming video platforms are spending heavily on their own content, video games, too, are moving to a subscription-based streaming package model. CEO Satya Nadella has doubled down on spending on native content for Microsoft's Game Pass, which Microsoft said in a press release reached more than 25 million subscribers, up from 18 million in early 2021. Activision itself has 400 million monthly active players, so it's reasonable to assume that some of those users will switch to Game Pass, which Microsoft promotes as "Netflix for gaming."

Finally, in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday, Kotick said that as games increasingly move into the metaverse, gaming companies will need technology expertise that Activision may not have, and it will probably be difficult to attract from the big tech companies -- especially given recent employee problems. Therefore, it does make sense to sell the company to a large tech giant with a variety of technology expertise. Microsoft, of course, has such expertise in abundance, thanks to its Azure cloud platform, Xbox gaming platform, and Hololens AR/VR headset.

While the ZeniMax acquisition went off without a hitch, Microsoft may be pushing the limits of its acquisition capabilities with this deal, given Activision's sheer size. At the time of writing, Activision's stock was only trading to the $82 mark, which leaves a lot of room below the $95 acquisition price. This seems to indicate a certain amount of skepticism about completing the deal.

Microsoft has been very good at avoiding antitrust regulators in Washington, who are instead mostly going after other FAANG stocks, particularly those related to social media. However, Microsoft is also not done with two other noteworthy acquisitions in the process in medical AI and advertising technology. Given the speed and size of the new deals, Microsoft could face a lot of resistance to buying Activision.

Nevertheless, if the deal goes through, it's a huge win and terrific use of the enormous $130 billion cash pile on Microsoft's balance sheet. Microsoft is doing great in the cloud computing and enterprise software markets, and that business alone would be enough for management to rest on its laurels. But to see management working hard to grow its consumer-oriented businesses -- search advertising and video games -- is refreshing. First-rate capital allocation and relentless pursuit of growth is another reason Microsoft deserves its high praise.