2nd glance at this chart showed an ascending wedge pattern, instead of the channel from previous chart. Ascending wedge is normally bearish. Slope of wedge is high indicating break to downside. MSFT barely broke daily trend line today (thin white line). Max entry price for shorts/puts which I was considering was $155. I do not think we will get to $155.
All bottom indicators either broke trend to downside at end of day, or are going to break tomorrow (Bottom filter dots indicator). Several down gaps to fill. Fractal from blue box shows same retracement will fill all gaps (with wick down into bottom box).
MSFT declines previously seem to take longer than usual. For this reason, I will be using a put option (30 days out) and adjusting as we decline further out or taking profits to exit trade. I expect this market downturn to last through Christmas as people take profits. Banks and institutions are not leaving profits in before year start. They are able to write off losses, increase shareholders earnings, and then recycle back into the market in January.
Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, VIXY. Short SPY and AAPL. MSFT put tomorrow 11/21.
Agree pattern appears very similar to Apr/May. However, would not bet on a second Christmas Crash; a brief sharp V-pivot with condolidation at or above former price resistance would follow the Aug/Sep patterns.
IMO there may be another leg of runup left in the wedge. Maybe not... that's what makes this such great sport!
MoneyPatterns
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@DaddySawbucks, Thank you for the comment and discussion. This helps everyone.
I agree we need to watch this one. Looking oversold short term.
Longer term, I see the XLK looking to correct with AAPL, GOOG, and SPY so I am seeing a broad correction.
Then I see VIX ready to pop so things may get interesting.
This is the reason I am hoping it may continue. I think puts will still profit, but maybe not as much as hoped.
$275 Put can payout 6k if MSFT goes down to $135 by Christmas. Two gaps to fill right down to $134 :)
This is what caught my interest.
The "big one" is coming though. I think in 2020 for sure. SMH and SPY are running out of room.
Thanks again for commenting dude. I appreciate it!
DaddySawbucks
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@jbird7839, Yvw dude. Big One soon, not now, in 3 months IMO. Small One now, higher to get the Flush!
IMO there may be another leg of runup left in the wedge. Maybe not... that's what makes this such great sport!