VictorCobra
Short

MSFT Reaches My Double Top Target...Now What?

NASDAQ:MSFT   Microsoft Corp.
Just a brief analysis. There is a possibility that the market will rally higher and that we will see a blow off top, but the DJI has found pretty substantial resistance again above 26000 so we may be about to see the true initial drop of an incoming recession. The December drop was merely the start, and subsequent rally was constructed so that people have another chance to protect their capital.

In my last MSFT chart, I suggested there was a possibility for a double top if the recent low couldn't be taken out by the bears. I provided the target for this second top (somewhere in the 110-112 area). If we are to follow this setup, we should see a big drop soon. However, if we build support here and move higher, this idea will be invalidated. Looking at the log chart, once the purple uptrend is broken, we will probably see a much deeper selloff. As you can see, there are some fairly low targets.

Things don't necessarily have to play out this way, but I think we need to see some growth slow down, so we can deal with bigger issues as a society (like the environment, for instance).

Not financial advice. This is my opinion based on what I'm seeing in the market.

Link to previous MSFT analysis at bottom.

-Victor Cobra
Comment: Holding here pretty well so far, although the DJI is showing further signs of weakness. If we do push up and break above the previous high (around 116) the blow-off idea will be in play and I'll have to make a new chart.
Comment: Dropping now. Let's see if we have a big selloff soon and head back below 100.
Comment: Looks like this idea is invalidated for now, since we broke out of the resistance line. If we had above $116, the blow off top idea will come into play.
You were correct about a double top, just pushed higher than you expected. This is what I have for MSFT based off of EW and Fibs, as well as several different indicators. Our targets for the downside are about the same as well, good to see that different TA match up.
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@HulaBalo, Actually I was most likely wrong. It broke out form the previous high, and we will likely have a blow off top for most tech stocks within the next couple of years. Unless it happens to drop here.
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HulaBalo VictorCobra
@VictorCobra, I was wrong as well. I think we may push to 120 USD at most and then drop. If it continues past then our analysis is incorrect.
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