Been waiting for this scenario to unfold for couple of weeks now. here's an updated view from my prior MSFT post (linked below) - i'm sorry if it looks too complex with all the on-chart analysis
this time, we're zooming in to the 4hr chart as i was curious to compare this move to the prior one, and they seem very similar
MSFT dipped below $322 in pre-market today already and it seems we're in for another down day - so the time is almost here for our long entry - still prefer a breakeven entry below $320. $315 is still the magic number. so bottom fishing season open :) - looking for a 15% upside to a target ~$370 somtime in Q1
Here's how my other chart setup looks like - using the 1D view. what we're looking for is a dip below the 50SMA, which the xMACD shows it may be possible within the next 1-5 days.
Disclaimer: as usual, this is only my expectations - not a trade recommendation
On the Daily timeframe, drawing a diagonal trend line up from the Lower Low of 230.25 on 4 Oct '21, up through to the Low pivot point of 318.03 on 3 Dec '21, shows that this line was cross when it hit a new low of 317.25 on 17 Dec '21. While this bar has lots of volume, and closed up; it was also preceded by a very clear bearish engulfing, on candles 15 & 16 Dec. Hourly chart shows a possible short term reversal up, though caution would wait for a higher low and a stop under 317. After the mark up phase that ended on 5th Nov, plus the Up Thrusts on 22 Nov and 13 Nov, seems at present, nobody is interest in purchasing above the resistance line of 344.
My goal when i created the BSI, is to let the script do the bar-by-bar analysis in a mathematical and consistent way - taking away any possible human bias that i could bring in - i'd like you to use it and given your experience, you can verify if that approach works. is it possible to create an indicator that "walks" through each bar, analyze the data associated with it, and presents a view that reveals the situation - that we can then use to make trading decision.
DjjCI8i2
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@RedKTrader, Actually, it was your Volume Viewer in this published chart that most intrigued me. It points down, indicating a potential cross under. As I understand the calculation is more down candles (excluding wick) adds more selling volume. Yes, the BSI reads like a two bar stochastics, a kind of short term oscillation about a trend channel (irrespective of the trend's direction). Currently, it too points down sitting in its over sold position. Another observation of this published chart, is how the price MA trend is down, but the volume MA trend is up. Of course, increasing volume on increasing price is a basic tenet of supply and demand. Appreciate your comment, as can see now how much the BSI indicator is guiding the publishing of this post. Fun to share ideas! :)
UnknownUnicorn7245819
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@DjjCI8i2, I looked at the order flow on Friday. One of the reasons that it bounced off 317 is that there was a huge buy order at 317 (as well as 315). It is less likely MSFT is going below 315 unless there is a massive sell-off/fear in the market.
DjjCI8i2
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@starsora04, Agree, evidence seems to suggest there might be syndicate trading around the 317 zone. Question is though, are they off loading around the 344 mark?