Mika_k

Microsoft Trading opportunity in the mid term

Long
NASDAQ:MSFT   Microsoft Corp.
well, let's try this again. I had basically finished making this post, but I pressed esc on my keyboard and my whole blog post got erased. So, I am a little tilted, a little triggered, but let's move past this into the t.a.

Elliott wave analysis: The elliott wave analysis, similar to AMD , took me quite a while. There were a lot of probable wavecounts, but it wasn't until I really started to look into the price action, that the wavecount I have right now, appeared to me. As I am writing this post, we have just ended the wave four, and are beginning to start the wave 1 of A, of the great wave 5. The target for wave 5 is the 247-260 range. This is because it is the 0.764 extension of waves 1-3-4, and it is the 3.618 extension of wave 1-2. Now some of you are wondering why I didn't make the first target the 0.618 of waves 1-3-4, and this is because, there is such a strong cluster at the 0.764. Once the wave a unfolds, I will be able to give a more accurate target, but for now, we just have to forecast on the information at hand.

Moving average analysis: The moving average analysis on the 1 hour is telling us a very important story. We have been riding the 200 ema for quite sometime, so long that the 55ema, is also starting to ride the 200 ema . This is important, because if the 55ema break downwards, we are headed a lot further down, but a bounce off of the 200 ema for the 55ema, is great confirmation that what I predict is going to come true. On other time frames, such as the 2 hour -daily, we are steadily cruising on the 55ema, which is an alright sign.

Macd analysis: The macd on the one hour, is providing us with a huge signal that we are headed up. We have crossed over not once, but twice on the negative side, and the most recent one being so close to the zero line, that it shows huge bullish momentum is at play. On other time frames, such as the 2 hour, we see bullish divergence on the macd , and higher timeframes such as the 4 hour and 6 hour, show a cross on the negative, and a bullishly diverging histogram. So tldr, we have lots of bullish signs that support my belief that we are headed up.

RSI Analysis: Finally the rsi analysis. The RSI on the 1 hour macd is looking KILLER. We are seeing major bullish divergence , meaning higher highs and higher lows. Something interesting is the action that has taken place on the daily rsi .We can see that we have failed to break into the overbought territory on the daily in the past couple days, but have found the support in the bottom of the bullish territory. I think this might imply that we are headed back up higher. I believe that before msft starts to correct, we will see an oversold RSI , or atleast some bearish divergence on the daily. Meaning higher highs on the price action, and lower highs on the RSI .

In summation, this looks like a really great trade to take.
Target 1 is 250
Target 2 is 260
The stop loss is below the most recent swing low, so 197.
All in all we have a risk to reward of 6.6, which is crazy.

Anyway, best of luck trading this week, and made the stock market gods look favourably upon you.

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