MSTR = USD 800 short term (close previous runaway gap)
MSTR = USD 500 mid term (Regulatory Risk, Tether fraud)
- Janet Yellen, US Treasury Secretary, former FED Chairperson
Again: Governments will do 'whatever it takes' to keep their monopoly over money.
$850 Million in Losses Around the Globe
MSTR next target: USD 500
Additional debt: $1bn
Reiterate MSTR = USD 500
glad to illustrate my opinion
Microstrategy holds 71k BTC in his treasury
Value core business net of debt(1bn) + btc holding (3.5bn) = 170% market cap (10bn)
170% premium is not justifyed nor sustainable:
1. MSTR was not able to significantly improve margins nor cash flow in the last 10yrs
2. CEO was fined by SEC. Reputational damage.
3. Corporate Governance risk.
(Bitcoin not suited as PRIMARY treasury asset for a PUBLIC company).
4. A Bitcoin ETF has been approved by Canadian Authorities. MSTR is an inefficient tracking tool.
5. MSTR CFO can't mark a gain unless he sell, but will blow an hole in MSTR balance sheet if it drops.
In summary: premium will evaporate
50% DOWNSIDE RISK
1. So what
2. Old news
3. Your opinion. Cash is a poor position to be in for any company right now. Maybe you suggest something really liquid like gold?
4. Yep and Greyscale exists too
5. Why would they sell?
Premium may correct some because it overran two weeks ago but as BTC continues to melt up they will intersect and both ride much higher. You’ve given a lot of opinion but nothing of substance. I would encourage you to put your money in short positions if you believe your thesis so strongly. I thought I may see some good DD here but definitely not the case.
Thanks for your inputs