Roger779

MSTR: 50% downside risk

Short
NASDAQ:MSTR   MICROSTRATEGY
MSTR = 2.5x its BTC holdings

negative asymmetric payoff

SELL before it is too late
Trade active: Central banks will do 'whatever it takes' to keep their monopoly over fiat money and the priviledge of Seniorage.

MSTR = USD 800 short term (close previous runaway gap)

MSTR = USD 500 mid term (Regulatory Risk, Tether fraud)
Comment: 'Bitcoin is an extremely inefficient way of conducting transactions, and the amount of energy consumption is staggering'

- Janet Yellen, US Treasury Secretary, former FED Chairperson


Again: Governments will do 'whatever it takes' to keep their monopoly over money.

Sell $MSTR
Comment: NY Attorney General ends Bitfinex-Tether illegal activities

$850 Million in Losses Around the Globe

MSTR next target: USD 500
Comment: MSTR acquired additional 20k BTC @ 52k

Additional debt: $1bn

Value destruction

Reiterate MSTR = USD 500

Comments

Dude... literally, wtf are you talking about? BTC has nothing but air above it to move into. MSTR is one of the biggest bulls. You're a new account with no credibility. I hope you're willing to explain to get people to hear you out.
+5 Reply
Roger779 pikajew
@pikajew, thanks for your request
glad to illustrate my opinion

Microstrategy holds 71k BTC in his treasury

Value core business net of debt(1bn) + btc holding (3.5bn) = 170% market cap (10bn)

170% premium is not justifyed nor sustainable:

1. MSTR was not able to significantly improve margins nor cash flow in the last 10yrs

2. CEO was fined by SEC. Reputational damage.

3. Corporate Governance risk.
(Bitcoin not suited as PRIMARY treasury asset for a PUBLIC company).

4. A Bitcoin ETF has been approved by Canadian Authorities. MSTR is an inefficient tracking tool.

5. MSTR CFO can't mark a gain unless he sell, but will blow an hole in MSTR balance sheet if it drops.

In summary: premium will evaporate

50% DOWNSIDE RISK
+2 Reply
@Roger779, Show me a company in the entire S&P that is valued true to market cap without a ridiculous P/E

1. So what
2. Old news
3. Your opinion. Cash is a poor position to be in for any company right now. Maybe you suggest something really liquid like gold?
4. Yep and Greyscale exists too
5. Why would they sell?
Premium may correct some because it overran two weeks ago but as BTC continues to melt up they will intersect and both ride much higher. You’ve given a lot of opinion but nothing of substance. I would encourage you to put your money in short positions if you believe your thesis so strongly. I thought I may see some good DD here but definitely not the case.
+4 Reply
Roger779 Rektheshorts
@Rektheshorts,

Nice trade.
Thanks for your inputs
Reply
@Roger779, haha nicely done. It only took a sell off in the entire market for you to be correct.
Reply
meowoao Rektheshorts
@Rektheshorts, hope you not rekted? take care dont put too much emotions into it.
Reply
@meowoao, why would I be rekted? My above point stands. None of his points were validated by an entire market sell off in tech.
Reply
neffmarcel pikajew
@Roger779 wow that is not true
Reply
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