Nano - out of the frying pan, into the fire

BINANCE:NANOBTC has shown some strength in recent days, breaking out from a descending wedge . The recent impulses over the last couple of days suggest a new broadening wedge (blue) but I believe this to be unlikely to hold for a few reasons:
  • Nano has failed to hold on to any gains following the two recent impulses
  • Other alts may outcompete nano in the short term, pulling away volume
  • Minor, but potentially impactful, exchange concerns in the short term
  • Risk that BTC loses strength and sparks additional bearishness
All of this could put nano into a wider downtrend channel (yellow) awaiting future breakout once short term concerns are overcome. Should nano escape this channel I predict two levels of fib resistance beyond 78k.
Comment: Currently trading sideways within the ichimoku cloud, as might be expected on low weekend volumes. Day traders may want to prepare to trade this pennant, especially if short.

Comment: Broke out from the pennant with reasonable volume
Comment: Potentially "out of the pennant, into the pennant" here. Buy order book looks healthy though, so could be setting up for another impulse.

Comment: Broke out from the wedge but still expecting some sideways trading. Next resistance level would be 78.5k but I suspect either sideways or back down. I'm now tracking as a triangle. Could also see a cup and handle forming so long as any correction is not too heavy.

Comment: More sideways for nano. Quite easy to pick out some support and resistance lines now? Short still in play - note that I've added a more realistic (dotted) blue line based on the 1D chart...

Trade active: Feeling comfortable with a breakout from the historical downtrend channel. I've also indicated a potential new uptrend channel (solid blue lines).

Comment: Seems that nano bounced off multiple support lines (most notably the 400hr EMA) and continues a cautious clime.

Comment: Currently sat at my first resistance level in what looks like a bull flag. Nano would do well to push on and make this a support but let’s see... quite bought already so might have some consolidation just below first...
Comment: Always tricky to find impulses but I've had a go...

Comment: Sell momentum is remaining high. Got a feeling we could fall from the current pennant... (Yes, I entered my short a little early haha)

Comment: Looks like I was wrong but instincts were right - the most frustrating trade! Had my stop set a little too tight...
Sell momentum is remaining high. Got a feeling we could fall from the current pennant... (Yes, I entered my short a little early haha)

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