I haven’t been posting as frequently or updating as much. I have many other interests, and some of those have taken hold for a bit (as well as other life responsibilities). However, I’d like to take this opportunity to congratulate myself on my analysis from the last 6 months. This title is a bit of a joke, but in this post, I'd like to highlight both my accomplishments and failures so far as an analyst in this market. If you're looking for a comprehensive analysis of the market, that'll be in past and future posts.
I don’t have too many followers. There are plenty of analysts on here who have tons of followers and make nothing but horrible calls, leading the people who heed their advice to lose potentially large sums of money. I shouldn’t necessarily judge these people, since my hope would be that they’re learning from their mistakes.
I’m not right all the time. I admit when I’m wrong, and in my setups I provide scenarios that could happen - scenarios that go against my bias at the time but are nevertheless possible. It is undeniable, though, that the vast majority of my analyses have been extremely accurate so far (or as accurate as one can be when dealing with a volatile, speculative market). Just take a look. Press the play button. Even I'm surprised myself.
I also decided to take a break because I was very satisfied with the work I’ve done. I put many many hours into analyzing this market. Thankfully I've had the time, and I was able to learn a lot. A couple of people have thanked me for posting my analyses and spending the time to do so, and this means a lot to me.
One of my goals in starting a TradingView account was to be able to get strategic long term entries on a number of cryptocurrencies, despite having first entered during the end of the bubble in late 2017 - and to record my process. I guess we’ll see in a few years if this was all worthwhile. In any case, I wanted to post the careful analysis that went into my decisions, for future reference.
Just for the record, here are my bad calls:
1) BNB - didn’t see this one rising as much, thought it would correct harder, sooner
2) WTC - should’ve held on a little longer
3) XRP/XLM - thought these would perform better against Bitcoin in the mid-term. Long term remains to be seen.
4) RLC - didn’t think this one would make it, but it’s done very well, despite low volume
5) NEO - thought it would have more of a sustained rise against Bitcoin in the mid-term
Now my good calls (links to most of these are at bottom for reference):
1) Called the possible bottom of Bitcoin at 3200 and predicted the major breakout once all the diagonal resistances were broken. The $5000-5400 area was my first target for that breakout, as you can see from a chart I made back in January. I also bought Litecoin at $32, with targets at $60, $100, and $130 - two of which were reached.
2) Predicted the NANO bottom between $0.70 and $0.80 before it happened in August 2018, then assumed it would not drop below those levels, even if Bitcoin crashed to 3K. This was based on the enormous buying that occurred once those prices were initially reached, as well as comparing it to Bitcoin’s 2011 crash. This prediction was one of the reasons I got a TradingView account.
3) Bought XRP at 5K sats when it broke out in September. (Could’ve made a lot more by actually selling it, but it’s still around $0.32, with Bitcoin being lower than it was at the time). This one I'm starting to worry about now though.
4) Called the TRX bottom AND top from the previous cycle, as well as the likely long bottoming period ensuing.
5) Anticipated the ONT breakout after assuming major accumulation (bought at $0.60). Also predicted the likely pullback areas.
6) Predicted the BAT parabolic rise towards 10000 when it was still below 4000. Timed this one perfectly.
7) Made a more difficult prediction: GVT would stagnate or drop against Bitcoin in the coming months. This was after I sold my entire stack for ONT in early February.
8) Nailed the recent rises on ICX, WTC, NEO, NANO, VET, ENG, and DGD. With ENG, I was lucky enough to make a profitable trade.
9) Called the major breakdown on XLM once 3500 was lost. Also called the NEO breakdown from $13 to $5, and EOS from 100K to 50K sats.
10) Suggested that a move towards 50K sats was possible for WTC after it broke the logarithmic downtrend against Bitcoin (when it was still well below 30K sats).
And the list goes on.
Now, will I continue to make more good calls than bad? Who knows! All I’m saying is that I’m very proud of the work I’ve done - and you can understand why I’d take a step back for a bit.
Quickly though, where is the market headed now? A lot of people, including expert analysts, are calling for one more test of lower levels, a bit like what happened at the end of the last bear market. However, things do not HAVE to play out that way. As I’ve shown in my recent ETH analysis, this can also play out like the end of the dotcom bubble bear market, which would mean that we still have plenty of upside in the market before a bigger correction. With this in mind, my strategy is now to hold. I am no longer a buyer...or a seller, for that matter. All my buying was done when Bitcoin was still in the mid-low 3K area.
As for this NANOBTC chart, it's clear where the support and resistance are. I'm not going to give a trade setup here, but I've accumulated in the $0.80-$1 range for the long term. From here on out, I will be periodically rebalancing my portfolio, trading a small amount to increase certain core positions, and ultimately selling some when I am happy with my profit. It may take years before I sell, and I’m comfortable with that. Remember, if we have seen the bottom, there are many others who have entered who aren’t planning on selling for years.
There is always the possibility of some black swan event that causes another significant dent in the market. I am psychologically prepared for that. And this is why one should not invest more than they’re willing to lose. At this point, I have no reason to sell. I’m young. I can be patient.
Good luck everyone!
This is not financial advice.
-Victor Cobra
I don’t have too many followers. There are plenty of analysts on here who have tons of followers and make nothing but horrible calls, leading the people who heed their advice to lose potentially large sums of money. I shouldn’t necessarily judge these people, since my hope would be that they’re learning from their mistakes.
I’m not right all the time. I admit when I’m wrong, and in my setups I provide scenarios that could happen - scenarios that go against my bias at the time but are nevertheless possible. It is undeniable, though, that the vast majority of my analyses have been extremely accurate so far (or as accurate as one can be when dealing with a volatile, speculative market). Just take a look. Press the play button. Even I'm surprised myself.
I also decided to take a break because I was very satisfied with the work I’ve done. I put many many hours into analyzing this market. Thankfully I've had the time, and I was able to learn a lot. A couple of people have thanked me for posting my analyses and spending the time to do so, and this means a lot to me.
One of my goals in starting a TradingView account was to be able to get strategic long term entries on a number of cryptocurrencies, despite having first entered during the end of the bubble in late 2017 - and to record my process. I guess we’ll see in a few years if this was all worthwhile. In any case, I wanted to post the careful analysis that went into my decisions, for future reference.
Just for the record, here are my bad calls:
1) BNB - didn’t see this one rising as much, thought it would correct harder, sooner
2) WTC - should’ve held on a little longer
3) XRP/XLM - thought these would perform better against Bitcoin in the mid-term. Long term remains to be seen.
4) RLC - didn’t think this one would make it, but it’s done very well, despite low volume
5) NEO - thought it would have more of a sustained rise against Bitcoin in the mid-term
Now my good calls (links to most of these are at bottom for reference):
1) Called the possible bottom of Bitcoin at 3200 and predicted the major breakout once all the diagonal resistances were broken. The $5000-5400 area was my first target for that breakout, as you can see from a chart I made back in January. I also bought Litecoin at $32, with targets at $60, $100, and $130 - two of which were reached.
2) Predicted the NANO bottom between $0.70 and $0.80 before it happened in August 2018, then assumed it would not drop below those levels, even if Bitcoin crashed to 3K. This was based on the enormous buying that occurred once those prices were initially reached, as well as comparing it to Bitcoin’s 2011 crash. This prediction was one of the reasons I got a TradingView account.
3) Bought XRP at 5K sats when it broke out in September. (Could’ve made a lot more by actually selling it, but it’s still around $0.32, with Bitcoin being lower than it was at the time). This one I'm starting to worry about now though.
4) Called the TRX bottom AND top from the previous cycle, as well as the likely long bottoming period ensuing.
5) Anticipated the ONT breakout after assuming major accumulation (bought at $0.60). Also predicted the likely pullback areas.
6) Predicted the BAT parabolic rise towards 10000 when it was still below 4000. Timed this one perfectly.
7) Made a more difficult prediction: GVT would stagnate or drop against Bitcoin in the coming months. This was after I sold my entire stack for ONT in early February.
8) Nailed the recent rises on ICX, WTC, NEO, NANO, VET, ENG, and DGD. With ENG, I was lucky enough to make a profitable trade.
9) Called the major breakdown on XLM once 3500 was lost. Also called the NEO breakdown from $13 to $5, and EOS from 100K to 50K sats.
10) Suggested that a move towards 50K sats was possible for WTC after it broke the logarithmic downtrend against Bitcoin (when it was still well below 30K sats).
And the list goes on.
Now, will I continue to make more good calls than bad? Who knows! All I’m saying is that I’m very proud of the work I’ve done - and you can understand why I’d take a step back for a bit.
Quickly though, where is the market headed now? A lot of people, including expert analysts, are calling for one more test of lower levels, a bit like what happened at the end of the last bear market. However, things do not HAVE to play out that way. As I’ve shown in my recent ETH analysis, this can also play out like the end of the dotcom bubble bear market, which would mean that we still have plenty of upside in the market before a bigger correction. With this in mind, my strategy is now to hold. I am no longer a buyer...or a seller, for that matter. All my buying was done when Bitcoin was still in the mid-low 3K area.
As for this NANOBTC chart, it's clear where the support and resistance are. I'm not going to give a trade setup here, but I've accumulated in the $0.80-$1 range for the long term. From here on out, I will be periodically rebalancing my portfolio, trading a small amount to increase certain core positions, and ultimately selling some when I am happy with my profit. It may take years before I sell, and I’m comfortable with that. Remember, if we have seen the bottom, there are many others who have entered who aren’t planning on selling for years.
There is always the possibility of some black swan event that causes another significant dent in the market. I am psychologically prepared for that. And this is why one should not invest more than they’re willing to lose. At this point, I have no reason to sell. I’m young. I can be patient.
Good luck everyone!
This is not financial advice.
-Victor Cobra
Comment:
The uptrend on NANO clearly broke, so we’ve headed towards the target area at the red X. If the market has reversed, I’d like to see a big bounce on altcoins soon. It’s still possible, but time is running out for the bulls, and volume is weak.
Comment:
It would be pretty bullish if NANO can find support here, since it was previous major resistance, but a lot of alts have recently retraced their entire pumps against Bitcoin. Maybe NANO can surprise us.
