NAS100 is consolidating just below record highs after a +30% ten-week rally. Five weeks of balance between 28,400 and 30,750 — but the tape inside the range is weakening: lower highs since Jul 1 (30,250 → 29,850 → 29,800) and price below session VWAPs.
The ceiling: hawkish Warsh Fed (~30bp of hikes priced for 2026), 10-yr yields at 4.5%, semiconductor rotation — SOX broke its uptrend and Nasdaq lost its 50-DMA last week.
The floor: intact bull structure above the 200-DMA, rising earnings estimates into a fresh earnings season, AI capex cycle, bullish July seasonality.
- Short setup: 30,150–30,300 (Jul 1 rejection + lower-high sequence)
SL 30,470 · TP1 29,450 · TP2 29,000
- Long setup: 28,900–29,050 (triple-defended range floor, trend-side trade)
SL 28,730 · TP1 29,750 · TP2 30,250
NO TRADE: 29,300–29,600 — volume POC, pure chop.
Invalidation:
Daily close above 30,750 → breakout continuation, shorts off the table
Daily close below 28,400 → distribution top confirmed, targets 27,200–27,500
Risk events: FOMC minutes Jul 8 · CPI Jul 14 · earnings season kickoff · FOMC Jul 29
The ceiling: hawkish Warsh Fed (~30bp of hikes priced for 2026), 10-yr yields at 4.5%, semiconductor rotation — SOX broke its uptrend and Nasdaq lost its 50-DMA last week.
The floor: intact bull structure above the 200-DMA, rising earnings estimates into a fresh earnings season, AI capex cycle, bullish July seasonality.
- Short setup: 30,150–30,300 (Jul 1 rejection + lower-high sequence)
SL 30,470 · TP1 29,450 · TP2 29,000
- Long setup: 28,900–29,050 (triple-defended range floor, trend-side trade)
SL 28,730 · TP1 29,750 · TP2 30,250
NO TRADE: 29,300–29,600 — volume POC, pure chop.
Invalidation:
Daily close above 30,750 → breakout continuation, shorts off the table
Daily close below 28,400 → distribution top confirmed, targets 27,200–27,500
Risk events: FOMC minutes Jul 8 · CPI Jul 14 · earnings season kickoff · FOMC Jul 29
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Sharing clean, logical market analysis focused on liquidity, structure and volume. No signals, no pressure — just education. If you want more insights, you’re welcome to join: t.me/+CE3Vdc5m72w4MjRk
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.