Based on the past 2 year ever grinding higher move without a substantial correction, of course everyone expects (or needs?) a 10-20% correction from our current levels.
But what if the scenario that the absolute least number of market participants expects happens? What if the Nasdaq 100 were to double from here? And the Nasdaq 100 reaches 9000 by 2016-2017! Can't happen!
Then again, maybe we've seen it before...
I know sounds crazy – Greece is about to default, the Fed is about to raise rates, everyone is waiting for some sort of correction. But lets compare the monthly trend today with the Nasdaq bull move from 1995 to 2000. If at our current 4500 price level we were somewhere just past the midpoint - this would put the market somewhere around the mid 1998 timeline point of the late 90's bull market.
Looking at the comparison, what's interesting is that around that mid point the market launched into overdrive and broke out above it's long term uptrend channel and climbed steadily higher until it really exploded upward into its final 6 month blowoff top high, before finally turning downward and then gapping down thorough its steep trendline in the fall of 2000 and ultimately giving up the ghost.
Of course we all know it can't happen again – but then again... “The stock market is never obvious. It is designed to fool most of the people most of the time.” – Jesse Livermore