The strongest bearish wave in the history of US 100! Moustafa M.

May 8

This chance ((alone)) could cover a lot of your trading goals!!

The move started yesterday if you did not notice!

07.05.2026 is a day to remember!

what you see here is the weekly chart and align with the monthly!

Every boarder from every channel or rising wedge was tested and the last bullish move move completed the puzzle!

we are inside a massive rising wedge and the lower edge of is where my TP1 and TP2 are on the chart!!

The bullish move which continued from 26800 to above is meant to create the biggest liquidity in the history of US 100!

That wave will be the strongest ever in the history of US 100 and I am not exaggerating now but losing around 10,000 points I think will be something major to consider! not a crash as people claim, but a huge correction to unhealthy market!

Technically we are at extreme exhaustion area and the history will remember that idea same all of you will remember always my idea which I predicted correctly the down move of 35% which started in February 2025

Note:
Please do not share or copy my own work! It reflects my own vision and view to that index and it is advertised to not be taken as a legal advice for traders to follow, however, it is not more than an own opinion and analysis to be shared with you!

Good luck ;)

May 10

Note

Hi
I chose to answer the comments all in once here in bullet points:

1- First of all this trade idea is for a long term and not for a short term so if you are intraday trader so the ranges will be pretty big for you and I would advise strongly to look on that idea only for the sake of having the bigger view. So you can still go long or short on small time frames. Because I think no logic when I offer on you an idea for 10,000+ points
to expect someone expect to put his SL 50 or even 500 points above! The SL should match the reward to give a logic risk reward ratio. Even if you put your SL 1000 points far so the RR will be minimum 1 to 7 if we just hit 7000 points so that RR ratio even is outstanding and much higher than the above average RR....My idea is for a long term only and not for a short term!!

2- My ideas are always look better only when they are achieved later on, so if you do not have the patience for it, you would say after weeks or months that was a great idea but the swing trades are always hard to believe in the beginning for having significant ranges.

3- Thirdly, you need to ask yourselves only two question?
The first one: Where the logic when US oil prices rise recently along with US 100 or at least avoid the fall and rather consolidating?
The second one: Why the prices of US 100 increased significantly by that speed?
I could give answers if you let me:

For the first one: US Oil avoided the fall and consolidated because the logic is supporting it really, the war did end and Iran will not go well along US wishes and also the retraces which happened on US oil are also healthy after significant move from 54$ to around 115$ in a short time! but that did not happened on US 100
So I see US oil is a healthy market and US 100 is not

For the second one:
Because they have no time except to rise that fast in that short time before the CPI the inflation report on the 12th May (After tomorrow) and no one have one single doubt that it will come by a significant big figure due to the rise of US Oil prices and the products production costs increased in return! That I see a big liquidity pool rather than it is a stable bullish move... yes it is so big move but the bearish move will (I can tell you) will go to 23375 in a matter of hours! or few days max! Why I said so, I am familiar with how these moves are because the eyes of the swing trader I believe are so different from the intraday trader!
And I know it is not relevant but If you look on the 30 minutes frame on that pair GBPJPY which I shorted from its top and I hit in 4 hours a profit which others could hit for months with no exaggeration, then you will see a huge similarity know I use another market now and another time frame even but all I meant is how the wave looked like


4- I updated the idea chart as shown above at the top of this note and I could say that from 29500 to 29750 is more likely I expect the area which the fall will start from!

5- The day frame will be useless with US 100 even in case you seek the bigger view,, so I advise strongly use the week and month time frames

6- By the end, I see signs that US oil will rise along with USD significantly and by looking to S&P 500 I see same thing like US 100
DAX and also US 30 and also Bitcoin all will have strong bearish waves! However, The bitcoin will be the strongest asset between all the rest and maximum it could fall to is between 68000 and 71400 but then later it will explode to 102.000 then will break the ATH and will go to 140,000

7- When I predicted the last big fall in December 2024 and it happened in February but it happened, But this this time I delayed the idea to be ready as close as possible to the real action

May 10

Note

Also last thing please as I forgot to add above:
When we see reversal patterns and then we see that the asset continues rises. That is a big alarm that a big reversal could be on the way and the presence of the selling momentum appeared!
To see a reversal pattern, does not mean in return that we would go immediately in the opposite direction! I never expect that! But it gives me indication that a shift reversal would be on the way and I will have to be ready for it.
But missing what I said is what lead some traders either miss a great chance or fall victims to a liquidity pool!

May 12

Note

More likely the fall will start from now or today

May 12

Note

inflation raised more than the expectations and that supports for sure what i said on my idea
both the monthly and accordingly the yearly too

May 13

Note

That is the second time when the US 100 fell strongly then recovered so fast by all power to the upside!
in my idea I mentioned before even yesterday since few days that the fall will happen in the area between 29500 and 29750

I asked you two questions in that idea and i answered them, one was why US oil and USD rise or consolidate in the time US 100 rises like that?

When US 100 broke the bearish structure today in this way ( I know it is insane with no logic ) at time of no deal and also high inflation.. means that as I said in the idea, they prepare the biggest liquidity pool which did not happen since long time , and that happened before on many assets like Gold and GBPJPY and us oil and others.

A constant push for long time and recovering the retraces so fast.
But what happen later, could give a lesson.
That what ever the bulls won for many many weeks. The bears won it in just 3 or 4 hours!
few thousands of points believe me!

and who has the mentality of buying the dip and it is always bullish, and they will try to long it, will be the biggest losers in that time.

Will US 100 break the ATH?
yes

to where?
as i analysed from before in the area i mentioned on my idea
but i would say to you now a certain price 29715

Who will not be short and decide to go short from the beginning, will be so hard to scalp in that time

huge fast move in the middle of that fall will happen.

you will see the fastest ever drop which will be hard to imagine

Believe me confidently when i tell you there are no bears or bulls
they are same people with a certain plan and control the whole world!
those who buy are the same who sell!

the war is between the retail traders believe me who fight for who is right and who is wrong and who is at bull or bear side!

When you see a drop to 23245 in just few hours
you will all remember me! but I hope for good!
I will win all of the almost 7000 points as i always do!
But if someone else will win them that will make me happy because anyway it will not reduce my profit by one cent!

Please think in my words as you are in front of what it could be the biggest chance of your life!