1 - Overall price action suggests an incomplete 5-wave impulse with Elliott Wave alternation rules giving way to a complex Wave-IV consolidation with support expected at 4104.70, compared to a simpler Wave-II which occurred between 04-2010 and 10 2011; A resultant Wave-V completion remains pending 2 - Predictive/Forecasting Model eyes ONE pending targets, namely TG-Hix = 5255.11 and a WL level suggesting high-probability reversal level, namely WL = 5859.51 3 - Interim support corresponds to alignment of both a structural level where Intermediate Wave 4 (circled) defined its residence, as well as a quantitative target generated by the same Predictive/Forecasting Model as that which generated above qualitative levels, TG-Hix and WL
A QUICK NOTE ON RSI:
I often receive comments and suggestions about RSI, pointing to so-called divergences, which are typically referred to as "bullish" or "bearish" divergences - I will be short on this, as I have hammered this topics in public lessons several times over the years, but the author had originally suggested that BEARISH divergences in RSI (RED in the RSI field) are commonly associated with BULLISH trending markets, and not with declining markets, as many junior traders tend to perpetrate the same misstatement from misinformed tutors.
If you need to use RSI for a market expected to rally, look instead for POSITIVE (neither bullish, nor bearish) divergences (GREEN in the RSI field), where the origin of the green line imposes a solid support, which price will seldom transgress (as is consistently shown in this case) - The analogy I teach is that of a "shovel", where the origin of the green line is the handle, and the tip is the shovel, propping price up and above to higher height, in a situation where price carves a HIGHER-low against a LOWER-low in RSI ... If confused, just ask me for more examples, or feel free to post some suggestions here or in another appropriate chart ... Kapish?
The inverse is true, where a NEGATIVE divergence is price, where I use the "hammer" analogy, has the handle defining a level which price will not transgress, where the right-end of the RSI (not shown in this chart, since there is no downtrend defined as of yet) would rise at a HIGHER-high, compared to a LOWER-high in price, thus giving the impression of hammering the price further DOWN.
The ORANGE lines are convergent lines, and they simply have no "telling" as to the direction, strength and extent of subsequent price action.
Hope this helps in your own analyses.
Best,
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974 - Alias: 4xForecaster
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Comment
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12 AUG 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Whereas an interim pattern did not develop, targets from Predictive/Forecasting Model remains intact and in force, as price now nears TG-Hix = 5255.11, as defined this past 27 JUN 2016:
Best,
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Comment
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26 OCT 2016 - Target Hit ... One more to go
Price ended up not completing a complex geometry prior to hitting the first target at $5255.11. Instead, a resilient bullish market carried from to ever increasing heights.
At this point, a time-consumptive consolidation is coiling around the first target, adding credence to that forecast level, as buyers and sellers resolve their differences.
Next ... Expect price to meet a probable reversal level near $5859.51.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
Comment
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21 FEB 2017 - Chart Update: Price Hit ALL Targets:
Following is a cut/paste from the CROW Signal Service:
IXIC - Interim Correction; Bulls Eye 5859.51 | #nasdaq NQ — trading idea and price prediction for Nasdaq Compo...
If you followed my predictive analyses and forecasts on TradingView in the past, you may have also followed the targets defined in the IXIC index. To recapitulate, on 27 JUN 2016, I defined two bullish targets, namely:
1 - TG-Hix = 5255.11 - 27 JUN 2016, representing a qualitative "extreme-high" target
AND
2 - WL = 5859.51 - 27 JUN 2016, corresponding to a "top-most" level at which reversals are expected.
I also expected that, before the TG-Hix and WL levels would be met, an interim decline to TG-1 would occur, but bulls did not allow this interim shallow decline to occur, and instead pushed price to the first target in mid-SEP 2016, just three months from the signal release, followed by this week's second and final target.
OVERALL:
Per CROW Code method, a reversal level (not just a retracement) has been reached. Typically, I would expect price to first decline to a significant FIRST lower-low, then advance to a FIRST lower-high (relative to the historical high), and then further decline to lower-lows, relative to the first lower-low.
This price pattern would suggest a market reversal in favor of bears. Be sure to note whether the first decline occurs in a corrective fashion, and that the second decline to lower-lows occurs in a motive fashion. This would add further credence to a reversal narrative.
Talking very soon,
David Alcindor CMT Affiliate #227974 Alias: 4xForecaster ==========================
Can you elaborate the thesis on why the down turn was in plans in the first place? How is this idea formed and what grounds? i see the prediction but probably miss the reasoning or how the analysis was made
4xForecaster
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Hello, @2use:
1 - why the down turn was in plans in the first place? As in all of the predictive analyses and forecast, the method applied is based on a proprietary use of the "CROW Code", wherein the CROW stands for Constant Rescaling Of Wavelets. This is simply a fractal analysis of events occurring outside of the price field.
2 - How is this idea formed and what grounds? The idea is based on a quantitative data analysis, which is behind the CROW Code.
3 - i see the prediction but probably miss the reasoning or how the analysis was made - I teach this method to advanced traders. What I post to the public is an overlay of market geometries in some cases, as well as Elliott Wave counts. The CROW Code is not revealed, but the predictive analyses (market direction and strength) and forecasts (defining the level of price retracement and reversal) is shared well in advance with these students.
Is this answering your questions?
David
A-shot
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@4xForecaster, Well, yes - i am not after the major component of the CROW; but i was wondering what is the base for it - if it is waves, or a combination of indicators, or any other method. The largeness of the downturn does not connect well with most of what i know, except maybe harmonics. the road up though i see that i is an analysis of waves. But i am indeed following the progress of these charts, so thank you for providing timely comments and updates.
4xForecaster
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Hello, @2use I won't be able to provide any detail as to the elements that constitute the CROW Code methodology - It is taught in the private CROW course and used - but not shared - in the CROW Signal Service.
Sorry if this remains a bit elusive, though.
David
A-shot
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@4xForecaster, i understand David, looking forward to see how it goes
SharkbaitAl
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Very nice work. Also thank you for that explanation of using the RSI that is very helpful to me to see it explained with that imagery :)
4xForecaster
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Thank you, @SharkbaitAl - This RSI concept is perhaps one of the most important one to assimilate and apply in trading.
RSI divergences called bearish divergence are NOT at all the same as the more precise "negative divergence". There are only rare conditions where the bearish divergence will occur, such that price will fall (same for the positive divergence). In any other circumstance, a BEARISH divergence in RSI will be associated with a RISING markets, and vice-versa, except for a specific case.
I am very glad you appreciated this tid-bit of a lesson.
Thank you for your interest and for following my analyses/forecasts - Feel free to continue reading more of these on Twitter.
Have a great trading week.
David
SharkbaitAl
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@4xForecaster, Thank you once again for your help and also for your reply. I am very happy to have come across your post and have added you on Twitter. I look forward to spending time reviewing many of your older posts as well for pieces of information such as this :)
If it is not too much trouble, do you have any remarks on my attempt to identify positive and negative divergence on this weekly Sugar chart? Or do you believe I am forcing this onto the chart (I believe I tend to do that after I learn something new lol)?
Thanks once again. Hope you have a great trading week, month and year as well!
Not spending the same amount of time I used to on TradingView, but I am glad to update those longer-term charts I had left pending, as the target remained unanswered.
All new analyses are now announced on my Twitter @4xForecaster alias. Feel free to follow the performance of recent analyses by using the #CROWSignalService hashtag.