jangseohee

Last hope from despaired bear

INDEX:NASX   Nasdaq Composite
127 20 2
Megaphone from DJIA             , DJTA, SPX             have been violated and still going strong.
the last megaphone for the despaired bear is this, another violation means all bears would turn into bulls?

Let me ask you a question:
If the economy is "Recovering", why central banks everywhere have to lower interest rate to "boost" economy?
What are they so afraid of? And if they're not afraid of something, then why are they constantly hyping their threadbare commitment to "do whatever it takes," pushing real interest rates into negative territory and buying stocks and bonds hand?

I would expect them to hike the rate though. What is the thing that they know but i do not know..
raising rates increases interest payments due, which increases the spread between GDP and debt, which is very bad thing. They simply CANNOT raise rates, for a long time, until economy actually has a verifiable recovery, and momentum. Corporations are more profitable, markets up, replacing jobs with technology solutions, which hurts personal income, hurts consumer spending, yet another blow to economy recovering, spiral they don't know how to fix. Doing the same thing that got them in this problem in the first place, china cutting rates, rates going negative, will only keep us in this trend. There simply is no real solution. The market crash of all market crashes is coming when this "news" actually hits home.
+1 Reply
jangseohee claydoctor
LOL, so all central banks are the BULLS who take turn to inflate a Balloon until it automatically explode!
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claydoctor jangseohee
Yes, the big balloon pop! as you put it, so that, it is so terrible a situation, makes an entire new financial system is absolutely necessary. Otherwise, the people would not let it ever happen - we will have no choice but to do it. That is the master plan. 1936, they did not "print money"? because they knew it would be the death of currency based economies. They suffered greatly. This time, they did the one thing you simply cannot do, print money, lots of it, without a sustainable solution. Go a head and LOL. I like your posts, follow you and your charts, like them a lot, so I am not bashing you or your opinion, I am just saying the truth. It is inevitable. Current path unsustainable. Sorry, but is truth. Just can't call the time of it. no one can.
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jangseohee claydoctor
Hi Claydoctor, thank you very much for your fundamental explanation of why keeping the balloon inflated is better than deflated though either way, financial system is going armageddon :-), nope, i totally feel that you are not bashing me with these constructive comments :-)

Thank you very much also for following me though my post is downright simple, where many followers prefer the more sophisticated chart with lots of drawing.
When i see it necessary, i will usually jump the gun to short or long first even before confirmation.

Though no one can identify the EXACT timing of a big turn, TA is a better gauge and Fundamental which can serve as a huge warning.
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American economy is doing good. The rest of the world - not so much. But America doesn't really care about the rest of the world, because exports make up relatively small share of US GDP.

Futhermore, the fact that US economy is doing good (coupled with a strong dollar) makes US stocks extremely attractive for investors from all over the world. This is what many people are missing. American stock market nowadays is more than just US households investing their hard-earned money.
+1 Reply
jangseohee JohnKeverich
Hi John,
you are right, the whole world has pooled the fund to park it in US market :-)
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claydoctor jangseohee
I agree, can't argue with the facts. What bothers me is the FED not raising rates yet, should have, unemploy below 6 now, and they keep lowering the level, it until they have the guts to raise rates. Something not right here. Pro golabl money in us market for now, but only matter of time before world wide recession does not support the us market, when the us "hard earned dollars" certainly cannot support it. Then what ?
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Fiberton claydoctor
Real Unemployment is 11.5% ..... U-6 number Lieing to the public with fancy math to show good employment was changed in the 90s by Bill Clinton. Since then the pubic has not been shown the employment numbers they are showed the u-6 - minus = redone employment numbers. .. That cant be real change :) New math why not. Fake is not fake if the public is retarded.
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jangseohee Fiberton
Haha, agree, the "dump" money choose to believe in it!
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jangseohee claydoctor
The easy money from QE & bond purchasing are use to JACK up the price of stock via share repurchase causing it to go sky high. You already witness the FEAR from mid-Sept to mid-Oct of acknowledging end of QE3. If the "land and the rising sun" and china do not lower their interest rate... you know what will happen to their respective stock market. Lower interest rate to devalue currency in order to boost stock. And if Mdm Y tell the whole world, FED will raise interest rate @25 basis point every meeting, what do you think will happen to US stock, ;-)

But if they still indulge in deceiving themselves and delay the rate hike, by the time it is too late, the hike will likely be 50 - 100 basis point each time.

Example, GMCR-a solid fundamentally sound beverage company, just report its impressive earning and price reached 155, 3 days after its down to 140. Fast and furious. Technically, it has pierced through BB upper bands in quarterly chart (which i wish tradingview will feature this sooner), thats why when upside has become saturated, the only other way is go plunge down (bubble POPs)

When i frauded in my accounting practice, i will want to keep generating falsified report to show to my boss until one day i am caught naked with evidence, then it is OVER - the analogy

Hence i really suspect and question the numbers they put in for employment like our friend -Fiberton said.
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Fed and Presidents group on Financial markets have been buying futures pumping the market. Fed is done but Presidents group is not. The violation is under extremely low volume this time of the year means little We are about to enter the low trend cycle moving closer.. http://prntscr.com/59jqhp
+1 Reply
claydoctor Fiberton
agree.
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claydoctor claydoctor
but opec voice may have a say here, some effect. if oil goes to 70, trouble for stocks for sure. watching HAL as a canary in the coal mine. If they cut production, oil back up, but for how long, politics rules the day here.
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jangseohee claydoctor
If my monthly channel for crude oil future is valid,
67-68 dollar a barrel for support
,
Last bear phase?, vertical channel
(plus XOP anticipated wave 5 materialized, https://www.tradingview.com/v/vEknh0PV/), price of crude oil might bottom at 67-68. While HAL (i suppose its Halliburton
Struggling to break back
, is going to test the resistance around 56.

But anything unexpected can happen, which is why as a trader we have to take into acc for it
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jangseohee claydoctor
HAL could test 40!
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claydoctor jangseohee
HAL could go lower to 1 of 2 trend lines


maybe even 36, but its all up to opec, and if they don't cut production, and no one else will, they have lots of cash, and every oil related with heavy debt will fold.
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claydoctor claydoctor
HS also valid...
HAL HS updating a chart from 18 days ago

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JohnKeverich claydoctor
So what you're saying, guys, downside is rather limited from here? (I have a small long position in HAL)
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claydoctor JohnKeverich
IMO the bottom here more difficult to call than this dip. I have a small call option in HAL to retest back to 47, then? Demand down, economies struggling, opec wants to crush opponents, fracking in US and have the cash to wait this out until???
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jangseohee JohnKeverich
For a for certain and less risky long opportunity, at least wait and monitor for some kind of buying pressure (shadow) in 1 hour timeframe, bullish candle reversal formation with bullish divergence. Even if you get stopped out, the loss is small.
Using a monthly chart, log scale, drawing a trendline connecting Dec 2008 low, to June 2012 low and extend it, the price just sitting at the trendline support. I have some conviction that price would slightly break the trendline to wash out the bulls before reversal for short term. (i am watching ~38.5 level closely)
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