Megaphone from DJIA, DJTA, SPX have been violated and still going strong. the last megaphone for the despaired bear is this, another violation means all bears would turn into bulls?
Let me ask you a question: If the economy is "Recovering", why central banks everywhere have to lower interest rate to "boost" economy? What are they so afraid of? And if they're not afraid of something, then why are they constantly hyping their threadbare commitment to "do whatever it takes," pushing real interest rates into negative territory and buying stocks and bonds hand?
I would expect them to hike the rate though. What is the thing that they know but i do not know..
Comments
Fiberton
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Fed and Presidents group on Financial markets have been buying futures pumping the market. Fed is done but Presidents group is not. The violation is under extremely low volume this time of the year means little We are about to enter the low trend cycle moving closer.. prntscr.com/59jqhp
claydoctor
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agree.
claydoctor
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but opec voice may have a say here, some effect. if oil goes to 70, trouble for stocks for sure. watching HAL as a canary in the coal mine. If they cut production, oil back up, but for how long, politics rules the day here.
maybe even 36, but its all up to opec, and if they don't cut production, and no one else will, they have lots of cash, and every oil related with heavy debt will fold.
So what you're saying, guys, downside is rather limited from here? (I have a small long position in HAL)
claydoctor
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IMO the bottom here more difficult to call than this dip. I have a small call option in HAL to retest back to 47, then? Demand down, economies struggling, opec wants to crush opponents, fracking in US and have the cash to wait this out until???
jangseohee
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For a for certain and less risky long opportunity, at least wait and monitor for some kind of buying pressure (shadow) in 1 hour timeframe, bullish candle reversal formation with bullish divergence. Even if you get stopped out, the loss is small.
Using a monthly chart, log scale, drawing a trendline connecting Dec 2008 low, to June 2012 low and extend it, the price just sitting at the trendline support. I have some conviction that price would slightly break the trendline to wash out the bulls before reversal for short term. (i am watching ~38.5 level closely)