Natural Gas end of season reversal

While OANDA:NATGASUSD has been bleeding since the 3rd of January, I believe that the reversal is in sight.

Quite a few people have been calling the bottom over the last two weeks, and yesterdays doji might well be, but when comparing current price movement to that of the last couple weeks, I'm not quite convinced that we've found the bottom yet especially with the way the weather is shaping up for the end of February.

If this weeks data cooperates, we might see 3.05 by weeks end, however I believe that over the next two weeks the price of OANDA:NATGASUSD will most likely drift until settling along the lower trendline drawn from last march somewhere around 2.83x before starting its way back up to test Decembers high sometime around April or May.

I'm currently sitting long @ 2.9 looking to take half my profits around 3.05x and hedging short in case my suspicion is correct. However I will be using a tight SL and at the first sign that the reverals might last I will bail on my short and enter long for the long haul.

Comment: Price seems to be awaiting up coming data for direction and momentum. Anything below the 5 year average and current predictions should be taken as bearish and accelerate the final push down.


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