If price stays here by the US close I will try a long entry. Today we took out Friday's daily high. It's not a daily daily swing yet, but we should be close to a bottom. If the daily cycle low is in the decline was not so severe as the previous scary DCL...
The SlowStoch crossed over in the oversold territory, also the RSI is just leaving oversold... They might push it down one more time that's why I'm waiting for the close.
This 3rd daily cycle could be interesting. It can be a weak, a neutral or a powerful cycle. All depends on how strong the first few days will be. If we break above 3.375 in 5-10 days after the lows we will test back or break above the first daily cycle's high.(3.839) I set the 3 scenarios on the chart. This could be the best weeks for UGAZ in the intermediate cycle. I will be trading 50% NastGas CFD and 50% UGAZ on my account. Many traders are waiting for new lows soon. But Natty is not that simple. It will show some volatility at the end of the intermediate cycle : a new high in summer is something what fundamentalists don't expect ...
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When I posted this idea I didn't enter because the swing was erased almost immediately after the post. We had a new low. Yesterday we had a swing again and this swing was there at the close. I missed yesterday's entry so entering the trade today as we have the pullback. I'm convinced the low is in.
Trade active
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NEW LONG ENTRY at 2.963$
Comments
tradebyday
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Your thoughts? Are you still long? Should we still hold the bag or should we let it go?
ArtFly
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Arpi,
Could you update gold and oil ( with ERX)?
michaelkid_wang
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@ArtFly, Please wait. Usually most of the analysts update the ideas only when the trend is aligned with his/her original prediction. If the trend is opposite, no update is highly possible.
bertcoin
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Arpi - I've moved the DCL on my chart from 6/5/17 to 6/22/17. Nice breakout from a wedge last 2 days. Back to the original weak, powerful or neutral 3rd cycle, just a few days later? Or does this consolidation delay make you want to change the idea?
bertcoin
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Still long UGAZ with a small position and about break even.
bertcoin
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Slightly lower low today from the potential DCL, diverging between RSI and price on really low volume.... Still banging around the 10 daily EMA. Patience is never fun with Natty!
bhowe
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Arpi, what do you think? NAtGas looks to be basing here at support. I don't see it as a bear flag. Trying to push out the weak hands perhaps.
michaelkid_wang
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@bhowe, if you don't trade on margin, just let it go.
FFMEO
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Today’s green candle looks like a key reversal, but the volume hides this event.
Starting from 8th of June the volumes is too low and it’s really strange. I consider “OANDA:NatGasUSD” to be something wrong. Is it out of date?
Look at HenryHub’s volumes after 8th of June. They are really good and correspond to the volumes before 8th of June without dramatic decrease.
Maybe we should switch to another Natty's ticker symbol?