chartwatchers
Short

NatGas - Unfinished business

OANDA:NATGASUSD   Natural Gas
2329 20 50
a month ago
Last week's decline tricked me a bit. I thought that we entered into the panic selling stage...
Panic selling can have maximum one small green candle. But actually I don't like to see any green candle during the panic selling and here we had 2 green candles.

So the situation is the next:
We dropped down to the 200 EMA with a steep drop. Timewise we could bottom our daily cycle here.
But the beginner cycle trader will be tricked out here as it's not a simple daily cycle low it's going to be an intermediate cycle low. So my original target down to the 200 SMA still in play.

Today we finished the bear flag and heading down with a key reversal. Couldn't regain the 100 EMA.
At the intermediate cycle low the RSI 14 needs to get oversold and MACD should be around -0.11.

The panic selling will be starting when we break below the 200 EMA / and the last low at 2.651. ( Most probably tomorrow or Wednesday. ) We should see a big volume on the break down but sellers will be drying up in 4-5 days. So volume will be decreasing in the panic selling.
This is going to last for 5-6 days. And now I'm starting to think that it's going to break marginally below the 200 SMA . We need the perma bears and bear market analysts to come out of their caves and calling the sub 2$ NatGAs price again.

Today I reenter with full position again with a stop above today's high. (2.87$)
a month ago
Comment: We entered into the panic selling stage. The bear flag is broken down right now.
a month ago
Comment: Breaking below the last low and the 200 EMA on good volume.
So this is the 1st day of panic selling.
snapshot
a month ago
Comment: Panic selling day 2.
We have just broken the previous daily cycle low.
So we are in empty spac now. The 200 SMA is pulling down the price like a magnet.
3-4 more days and we are done. But by that time all the longs who bought the breakout at 3.3 will be stopped out.
snapshot
a month ago
Comment: We aren't done yet. Today it seems we will have a red doji candle, but we need to tag the 200 SMA.
a month ago
Trade closed: stop reached
archer08
a month ago
Thanks a lot, Master!
Reply
Thanks for the update, closed 75% of my position last week and will see how the last 25% plays out, got into DGAZ too early this year but for those that entered a week or two ago, it must feel like falling in love! Thanks for the update and appreciate all your insight!
+1 Reply
@chartwatchers You called this to the T! look at DGAZ run. Very nice call Sir.
+2 Reply
Cheetsbaby84
a month ago
What is your target price mate?
Reply
joseaciar
a month ago
Thanks Arpi. You are really good !!
Reply
val_trader
a month ago
Arpi I love ya !
Reply
grappa01
a month ago
how do You think which price will be ending of rally SHORT ?
Reply
thanks for this chart
Where do you think it will reach?
Reply
BLOCK TRADE: $UGAZ 800,000 shares @ $29.27
Reply
rere04 nnavarrete
a month ago
where do you guys view the block trades?
Reply
fshabani
a month ago
so what price is this in december contract?
Reply
piptamil
a month ago
Take a bow...
Reply
Cheetsbaby84
a month ago
Hi Apri, can you update this idea please. Thank you and great call!
Reply
val_trader
a month ago
Now NatGas seems reversing... to 2860... in your opinion better to close the shorts ? Thanks Arpi.
Reply
Superkloton
a month ago
No we have not broken the DCL - yet. Let’s see if it can break it at the retest.
Reply
Hambone Superkloton
a month ago
Seeing it as a good place to add to shorts. Appears to just be a back test of key support/resistance at ~2.862.
+1 Reply
Tj PRO
a month ago
That's a great one. Thanks!!!
Reply
Thanks for the updates! Some would have thought this was the bottom on NG.
Reply
bertcoin PRO
a month ago
I nibbled back into a small DGAZ position Monday afternoon, so thanks for the faith to make few extra bucks on this downdraft.
Reply
@gandonian11 and this one
Reply
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