chartwatchers
Long

NatGas - Might be a perfect time for longs

OANDA:NATGASUSD   Natural Gas
1872 24 45
16 days ago
It's starting to be a textbook rally. We had a nice intermediate decline after 3 daily cycles.
We tagged the 200 SMA and turned up from there. We had the 50% pullback of the previous ICL (FIBO 50). And we broke out from the down channel.
MACD crossed over and heading to the upside. RSI is entering into overbought territory but it can print an overbought zigzag for days (highlighted by green). TSI             the same.
We stopped a few days at the 20 EMA and the Bollinger Band middle line. The next level is at 2.93 BB upper line.

The only thing I don't like that Natty is famous of its scary panic sellings at the end of the intermediate cycle (Highlighted by red) This time the decline was not so steep. Though we reached my original targets ( FIBO 50 and 200 SMA ) I would have liked to see 2 more down days with a real panic as price breaks below the 200 SMA . So I hope it's not a trap and we don't get one more short daily cycle with a panic selling and with a break down below the 200 SMA .
That's the reason I was not adding at the follow through day.

If everything is right we are in the first daily cycle and price will not break below the 200 SMA . Usually the first daily cycle is not so strong. So don't be frustrated if UGAZ             is not printing a 100% rally in December. The big UGAZ             rally will come in the 2nd daily cycle (blue rectangle) . That is the point where I plan to enter heavily in this market.
The following weeks we are going to test the previous highs at 3.33 - maybe marginally break above it .
LONG UPDATE (this is just an update on a previous idea : we are long already. I don't suggest to enter or add to the position here)
7 days ago
Comment: I will update Natty in a new chart tonight.
1. No shorts from here
2.No new long entry.
I think we will run to new highs in this daily cycle in the next 10 days, but there is no guarantee for that.
I suggest to hold longs all who missed the rally wait for the first daily cycle low.
I underestimated the first daily cycle rally : it's very powerful. Hopefully the second daily cycle will be strong as well...
toothless
16 days ago
Mahalos, Apri!! Much appreciated!
+1 Reply
Staxs
15 days ago
How much do you think a strong dollar is going to suppress the the first cycle high?
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chartwatchers PRO Staxs
15 days ago
@Staxs, I just wait for a test of 3.4$ in the first cycle
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jolu chartwatchers
14 days ago
@chartwatchers, here it seems we have a little pull back before trying to breach higher ,maybe to tag the 10EMA.
Will it be good it me to enter for those who stayed outside ?
Thank you for sharing your wise ideas.. really appreciate it.
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jolu chartwatchers
14 days ago
@chartwatchers, 4H chart is pointing down as all other low frames are already down ..
I think that we may have a red candle today ..touching or close to 10EMA, then up today or tomorrow beccause one day chart is still bullish.
if the downtrend persist who knows where we would stop..
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jolu jolu
14 days ago
@jolu, i mean the second scenario you depicted could be valid, Panic selling..
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jolu chartwatchers
12 days ago
@chartwatchers, seems to be good inventories!
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jolu chartwatchers
12 days ago
@chartwatchers, Hi arpi , 4h is forming shooting star candle ..do you think it is time to take profit ?
we can have a red candle tomorrow while UGAZ wont be traded as NY is closed tomorrow so we may open with a gap friday ..
any idea please.
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Cheetsbaby84
14 days ago
Thank you Apri for your insight
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jolu
14 days ago
hi,
are we going to correct down now ,or we have one more day ?(4h and below frame charts are overbought ,while 1 day chart is indicating we can move higher..)



Thank you very much
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shares9k
14 days ago
Hi Apri, I missed entering UGAZ. Can I enter now or need to wait for pull back? thank you for the posts.
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archie123
13 days ago
Any chance of an update on Natural Gas. What are your thoughts regarding the activity today.
Is it heading back down, profit taking before tomorrow's numbers and the US holiday?
The 4H chart is turning down (red); the 1D chart still looks good and climbing.
Really appreciate your insight and time.
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jolu archie123
13 days ago
@archie123, intersting..4h chart managed to stay stable .. yesterday we had a test of resistance at 3$ ,we bounced in few seconds from 2.92 to 3 like there were massive support there .
It seems we try to stick back to the 10EMA on the daily chart before resuming the upside, on the contrary it could be the beginning of panic selling ,dont know yet, any thoughts ?
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archie123 jolu
12 days ago
@jolu, The 'Natural Gas Storage' results at noon EST today will impact the direction.
My belief, an opinion not anything more, is that the trend remains up (based on 1D chart). The 3H and 4H charts look like minor drops.
The selling / buying yesterday was almost even volume during the drop / rise -- perhaps saying that folks were buying the dip.
So, we wait for the report.
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jolu archie123
12 days ago
@archie123, as arpi always say news follow technical .. I tend to agree with you. 1week chart is pointing up ! we have more room to go untill 3.3 . 4 h is also getting closer to the oversold territory thus i assume we just wanted to stick to 10EMA and maybe also tagging it without filling the gap we had monday.
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FFMEO
12 days ago
Arpi, 'tiz one more great forecast. I like it.

We've just paused exactly where you predicted possible turnover. Does it mean that we'll follow up the 'green' case and the 'red' case took off the table?
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jolu
11 days ago
Some one here know an ETF that track three times the price of the NATURAL GAS.

UGAZ tracks the price OANDA:NATGASUSD ,it is not the same price as NATURAL GAS which is now at 3.04$ but OANDA is 2.997$ . They are not always climbing the same amount of percentage ..

Thanks in advance !
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desmondlang123
7 days ago
Well played man. What do you think the near term top will be?
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archie123
7 days ago
Apri -- Any chance of an update on NG ?
Still room for more up (to 3.4 target) or time to start taking profits ?
Really appreciate your insights and time.
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watsonzou26
7 days ago
That was a good call, Arpi.
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archie123
7 days ago
Thanks Apri !!!
Really appreciate the update.
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johnmad PRO
7 days ago
My View .
snapshot
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Bastosai PRO
7 days ago
Thanks for the update Arpi.
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Viking83 PRO
7 days ago
I think at minimum we get pullback to 2.7 area, as price forgot to test that price in breaking out. Furthermore, structurewise, it looks like this move is a very strong B wave up. I suspect it won't mange to make a higher high and hence go down into a C wave. I am however, very long-term bullish on NatGas. It is the dream place to be when it's trending with a good entry
+1 Reply
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