chartwatchers
Long

NatGas - Might be a perfect time for longs

OANDA:NATGASUSD   Natural Gas
2241 25 49
It's starting to be a textbook rally. We had a nice intermediate decline after 3 daily cycles.
We tagged the 200 SMA and turned up from there. We had the 50% pullback of the previous ICL (FIBO 50). And we broke out from the down channel .
MACD crossed over and heading to the upside. RSI is entering into overbought territory but it can print an overbought zigzag for days (highlighted by green). TSI the same.
We stopped a few days at the 20 EMA and the Bollinger Band middle line. The next level is at 2.93 BB upper line.

The only thing I don't like that Natty is famous of its scary panic sellings at the end of the intermediate cycle (Highlighted by red) This time the decline was not so steep. Though we reached my original targets ( FIBO 50 and 200 SMA ) I would have liked to see 2 more down days with a real panic as price breaks below the 200 SMA . So I hope it's not a trap and we don't get one more short daily cycle with a panic selling and with a break down below the 200 SMA .
That's the reason I was not adding at the follow through day.

If everything is right we are in the first daily cycle and price will not break below the 200 SMA . Usually the first daily cycle is not so strong. So don't be frustrated if UGAZ             is not printing a 100% rally in December. The big UGAZ             rally will come in the 2nd daily cycle (blue rectangle ) . That is the point where I plan to enter heavily in this market.
The following weeks we are going to test the previous highs at 3.33 - maybe marginally break above it .
LONG UPDATE (this is just an update on a previous idea : we are long already. I don't suggest to enter or add to the position here)
Comment: I will update Natty in a new chart tonight.
1. No shorts from here
2.No new long entry.
I think we will run to new highs in this daily cycle in the next 10 days, but there is no guarantee for that.
I suggest to hold longs all who missed the rally wait for the first daily cycle low.
I underestimated the first daily cycle rally : it's very powerful. Hopefully the second daily cycle will be strong as well...
Hard not to be impressed. Playing out just as your chart projected. Bravo
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I think at minimum we get pullback to 2.7 area, as price forgot to test that price in breaking out. Furthermore, structurewise, it looks like this move is a very strong B wave up. I suspect it won't mange to make a higher high and hence go down into a C wave. I am however, very long-term bullish on NatGas. It is the dream place to be when it's trending with a good entry
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Thanks for the update Arpi.
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My View .
snapshot
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Thanks Apri !!!
Really appreciate the update.
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That was a good call, Arpi.
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Apri -- Any chance of an update on NG ?
Still room for more up (to 3.4 target) or time to start taking profits ?
Really appreciate your insights and time.
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Well played man. What do you think the near term top will be?
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Some one here know an ETF that track three times the price of the NATURAL GAS.

UGAZ tracks the price OANDA:NATGASUSD ,it is not the same price as NATURAL GAS which is now at 3.04$ but OANDA is 2.997$ . They are not always climbing the same amount of percentage ..

Thanks in advance !
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Arpi, 'tiz one more great forecast. I like it.

We've just paused exactly where you predicted possible turnover. Does it mean that we'll follow up the 'green' case and the 'red' case took off the table?
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